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Ask HN: How Is Everyone Feeling?

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21–30 of 62 posts

Re: Ask HN: How Is Everyone Feeling?

#21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Climate change, I would think, but it will take a while (depends on your definition of "soon").

Yes, climate change. We have crossed the Rubicon. Soon = in my lifetime.

I agree we're maybe past the point where we can stop the eventual extinction caused by climate change, but I think we still have (easily) at least 100 years left of more than 0 humans alive.

That said I think it will cause immense socio-political chaos and mass death in our lifetimes.

Re: Ask HN: How Is Everyone Feeling?

#22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Climate change, I would think, but it will take a while (depends on your definition of "soon").

Yes, climate change. We have crossed the Rubicon. Soon = in my lifetime.

I'm not sure I agree with you. The only widely cited quantitative guess at this scenario I could find in a brief trawl puts the chance of any "climate-driven existential catastrophe" this century at about 0.1 percent [1].

"Extinction" is a stricter outcome than “existential catastrophe", so I would imagine the odds this century are even lower than 0.1 percent. In other words: don't resign yourself to the extinction of humanity in your lifetime - it's highly unlikely, and you're just going to be feeding the defeatism that is so tempting when external events are so seemingly negative.

As sibling commenter to this post notes though, I would imagine that mass unrest, famines, death etc. in less-developed parts of the world will occur, with knock-on effects for the developed world.

[1] https://www.tobyord.com/writing/the-precipice-revisited

Re: Ask HN: How Is Everyone Feeling?

#23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, climate change. We have crossed the Rubicon. Soon = in my lifetime.

I agree we're maybe past the point where we can stop the eventual extinction caused by climate change, but I think we still have (easily) at least 100 years left of more than 0 humans alive. That said I think it will cause immense socio-political chaos and mass death in our lifetimes.

I think you are mistaken. In nature graphs are never linear. They are curves, special type of curvers. They start slow, then they can grow lineary for a while, and then they switch to exponental growth. This is the case w/ everything if you take a time to look. Epidemics, population growths, Vulcanos, even stars.

The very same thing start on Earth w/ climate change. Temp raises slowly, more CO2 (and more importantly, CH4) in atmosphere. Temp reises more. Atmosphere is hotter, can absorb more H2O vapors as well. Now, when you start hitting first threshold, hydrates (CH4) will be released from shallow ocean bottoms, more CH4 in atmosphere hotter.. cycle accelerates hitting runaway (exponental growth). KABOOM, earth might be doomed.

Its simplified model, not accounting for huge vulcanos on polar, with might explode and make nuclear winter with will block the heating. Complicated stuff, thats why we need scientists :)

Re: Ask HN: How Is Everyone Feeling?

#25
post #10

Personally I'm fine. Communally I'm worried. I'm worried the AI valuations bubble will collapse, pull the mag7 with it, that'll pull the us stock market with it considering they represent the vast majority of the value gain over the last years. That in turn will pull the dollar with it, even more than today. It'll make 2007 look like a picnic. I'm worried about demographics vs retirement. I doubt retirement will be a…

The Gulf Stream is new to me. Are you doing anything to position yourself for it or any of the other stuff? Not trying to be dismissive, really just trying to be optimistic/prepared if things go south. Ideally, someone gets inspired to build solutions to all the things that got us here.

Not for the gulf stream but I'm pondering a move from BigTech to the local defense industry. I can't do much, but I can do something.

Re: Ask HN: How Is Everyone Feeling?

#27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Climate change, I would think, but it will take a while (depends on your definition of "soon").

Yes, climate change. We have crossed the Rubicon. Soon = in my lifetime.

I think you underestimate the resilience of the human race. We have a space station where people live outside of earth. We have people living in Antarctica. On small scales, we can completely control environments to make them hospitable.

The idea that all the humans will die off in the lifetime of anyone who is alive today, from something slow moving like climate change, is pretty far fetched.

Re: Ask HN: How Is Everyone Feeling?

#29

It's difficult even being someone not from United States. Even more concerning is how most of the social media has been hijacked to echo views that should have been unthinkable a few years ago. For some, it's great news of course. It's free speech—they think. But, I am not sure future generation needs to across opinions like feminism is bad, or women belong in the kitchen. I do believe that this is a temporary phase,…

It's definitely difficult to play a game with people who have most of the chips and don't have a good reason to care about how fun the game is when they're gone. For social media, I want to believe the newer generation is smart enough to want a better platform and I'm optimistic that someone smart enough is going to create a curation algorithm that balances things out. At least I want to take a crack at it at some po…

Why do you want a better platform? I hope that people give up on things like social media entirely, meet up in person and socialise properly.

Socialising just doesn't work large-scale on screens. It's like a partial parasocial relationship.

Re: Ask HN: How Is Everyone Feeling?

#30
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree we're maybe past the point where we can stop the eventual extinction caused by climate change, but I think we still have (easily) at least 100 years left of more than 0 humans alive. That said I think it will cause immense socio-political chaos and mass death in our lifetimes.

I think you are mistaken. In nature graphs are never linear. They are curves, special type of curvers. They start slow, then they can grow lineary for a while, and then they switch to exponental growth. This is the case w/ everything if you take a time to look. Epidemics, population growths, Vulcanos, even stars. The very same thing start on Earth w/ climate change. Temp raises slowly, more CO2 (and more importantly,…

I think the feedback loop of climate change causing melting permafrost to release methane and carbon dioxide in turn causing more permafrost to melt is pretty worrying and maybe not getting enough attention.
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