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Ask HN: Do you think society will collapse within 10 years?

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Re: Ask HN: Do you think society will collapse within 10 years?

#21

Post by dcminter »

wand3r wrote: post #11
dcminter wrote: post #8

Which society did you have in mind? But if you mean globally then definitely not.

American Society but let's broaden it to the G7

"Collapse" is a strong word and even narrowed to "American" society I'm not sure what you would count as collapse. I don't think it's impossible that America could lose it's economic advantage within 10 years, but is that the same as society collapsing?

Or do you just mean American democracy ? It's hard to tell where the various groups and institutions might draw their lines on that. But democracies aren't a law of nature, so perhaps.

Caveat: if someone presses the nuclear trigger all bets are off. I wouldn't rule that one out, but it seemed inevitable back in the 70s so here's to hoping.

Re: Ask HN: Do you think society will collapse within 10 years?

#23

Post by Tadpole9181 »

harryquach wrote: post #16

If European society survived the Black Plague we will be fine. Imagine living in a time where an unknown virus kills half of the population. Half of everyone you know is gone. This is only one of countless examples throughout history. No doubt today we have unique challenges but I am optimistic we will overcome and thrive. Like a poster mentioned above, perhaps its time to log off and go for a walk.

I'm sorry, European society didn't survive the black plague if the term "survive" means anything but avoiding utter obliteration.

Entire cities were ravaged and collapsed - half of the entire population died not only from the disease but the ensuring famine resulting from supply chain collapse. Cultures were erased in their entirety, wars were started that lasted an entire lifetime, it defined the socioeconomic landscape of the world that came after. It's one of the reasons the Mongol Empire collapsed, religion took a stronger hold, and peasantry rose!

Now we live in a much different world. Tens of millions in a single city, utterly reliant on importants. Farming that requires fertilizer imports and machines.

It wouldn't be extinction, but a similar event would be utterly horrific and absolutely qualify as a collapse of society.

Do I think society will collapse on 10 years because of politics / economy? No, absolutely not. But to point to the black death and say it didn't collapse society is utterly ridiculous.

Re: Ask HN: Do you think society will collapse within 10 years?

#24

Post by Tadpole9181 »

wand3r wrote: post #10
mrpound wrote: post #5

If you believe this sort of thing you spend far too much time online and not nearly enough time existing or participating in society.

I am speaking more about American society. 60+ percent of people don't own homes or meaningful stock portfolios, they have almost no participation or skin in the game. The current administration is doing some horrible stuff (IMO), the previous administration did nothing and there is absolutely no vision. AI is going to take away all the jobs and opportunities. I really don't think this is a symptom of being "always o…

McCarthiesm and Vietnam and Japanese interment camps and slavery. Women and minorities didn't have rights. Native Americans weren't citizens. Companies owned towns and operated militaries against civilian labor. Life has been much worse and much more authoritarian in the American past, let alone the past in general.

The pendulum swings.

This might get worse before it gets better. Germany and Japan grew after Nazism. China, despite its flaws, has seen their people grow happier and is leading the charge in many domains.

The future is scary and the administration is doing harm. We may lose our advantages as a nation, we may struggle economically or scientifically. But a collapse of economy - let alone society - in just 10 years is astronomically unlikely outside of a nuclear or biological war.

Even if we plummeted to Russia's level of economy and corruption, Russia still exists after a hundred years of it all, with some of the largest scale genocides & repression campaigns in human history.

But that's not really happening. Despite it all, the US is largely doing fine? The markets seem to believe they can bear the worst of it until the pendulum swings again.

Re: Ask HN: Do you think society will collapse within 10 years?

#26

Post by msgodel »

I think it collapsed at least ten years ago and we're all just going through the motions because acknowledging it is too unpleasant.

In all seriousness societal collapse is extremely slow and not particularly eventful. Look at South Africa if you want to see what that actually looks like in real life. It's not like how Hollywood shows it.

I think it's also important to remember society is not the economy. It's more of a spiritual/social thing that the economy exists within. That's why I can say it's already gone and people just haven't fully acknowledged it.

Re: Ask HN: Do you think society will collapse within 10 years?

#27

Post by FrankWilhoit »

lcnPylGDnU4H9OF wrote: post #22
FrankWilhoit wrote: post #6

Ten, I'll evade the question. Twenty, yes, no doubt.

Well, I won’t ask for details about 10 but why so confident about 20?

The pace of devolution. It is easier to see the endpoint than the waystations.
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