Even if AI pops, I do not think it is going away; the question is only how long it takes to recover. Additionally, robots are on the horizon. I am still very bullish on tech and honestly think it is foolish to be bearish on tech.
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Ask HN: With AI bubble burst imminent, where do you put your money?
21–30 of 36 posts
Re: Ask HN: With AI bubble burst imminent, where do you put your money?
#22Basic big trackers. I understand very well why tracking a country/continent/the world market is a good idea, and that very understanding also tells me It would be as time consuming as a part time job to invest in specific companies.
Re: Ask HN: With AI bubble burst imminent, where do you put your money?
#23The skeptics were talking about an imminent AI bubble burst 10 years ago. You can definitely act on your hunch by simply shorting FAANG stocks, but you would be in big gain or huge loss territory. If you are looking to just hedge, maybe buy some traditional non-growth stocks that pay out dividends?
Re: Ask HN: With AI bubble burst imminent, where do you put your money?
#24S&P 500 as always. Timing the market is a fool’s errand.
I cannot agree more. Since I understand (more or less) how trackers and ETF works, I have a hard time believing economist and economy specialist arguing that you can model human behavior around rationality in an economic system...
Re: Ask HN: With AI bubble burst imminent, where do you put your money?
#25There is no “AI” bubble as far as the public market besides Nvidia and TSLA which has always been a meme stock.
The values of none of the BigTech companies that are overweighted in the S&P 500 have seen their values rise because of AI. Their fundamental business value and revenues are mostly the same sources - ad revenue (Amazon, Google, Facebook), retail sells (Amazon), cloud hosting (Amazon, Microsoft and Google (?)), enterprise sales and services (Microsoft) and device sales and services (Apple).
The bubble bursting will affect VC and private equity and mostly private companies.
Re: Ask HN: With AI bubble burst imminent, where do you put your money?
#26I am both bearish on AI and don’t see the bubble popping soon. People are too invested. Some of the most powerful people in Silicon Valley have staked their reputations in it. What happens to Satya Nadella if the bubble bursts? The freaking president of the United States is all in as they say. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
People have short memories. Their reputations will be fine.
Depends how much of other people's money they lose.
Re: Ask HN: With AI bubble burst imminent, where do you put your money?
#27A likely catalyst would be a DeepSeek like model where it has the capability of top model but in a much smaller footprint.
NVDA and cloud providers that are highly staked in AI would likely take a hit if a 70B model could do what Sonnet4 does.
But overall, AI is here to stay even if the market crashes, so it’s not really a AI bubble pop, more like a GPU pop.
And even then, GPU will still be in demand since the training will still need large clusters.
Re: Ask HN: With AI bubble burst imminent, where do you put your money?
#28The AI bubble won't pop because too many CEOs have discovered that it's a convenient fig leaf for mass firings, which is then laundered into a broader narrative about "operational efficiency".
Unlike metrics like operational cash flow and net income, statements like "30% of our code is now written by AI" cannot be audited so leaders can't really be called on the veracity of such statements. As long as decreasing opex can be tangentially linked to "AI innovation", they're golden.
Re: Ask HN: With AI bubble burst imminent, where do you put your money?
#29The skeptics were talking about an imminent AI bubble burst 10 years ago. You can definitely act on your hunch by simply shorting FAANG stocks, but you would be in big gain or huge loss territory. If you are looking to just hedge, maybe buy some traditional non-growth stocks that pay out dividends?
I'd be very interested in seeing an example of someone in 2015 claiming an AI bust was imminent.
Re: Ask HN: With AI bubble burst imminent, where do you put your money?
#30General investment advice is to put like 90% (or more) into ETFs, index funds or low-fee mutual funds. That last 5-10% could be individual stocks if you want to play around and do research, etc. If someone went all-in on AI companies and a stock market bubble bursts, you're in the "find out" phase.
Regarding bubble bursting, there have been market protections put in after 2008/09 so I don't know that we'll see major stock crashes. Its more likely that companies may miss targets, products start plateauing on features, etc.
If a crash were to happen, I read in a book (Intelligent Investor maybe?) there are usually macro indicators of patterns to look for, I forget what they are but its things like GDP, jobs, CPI, major indices falling X out of Y weeks in a row and other things like that. But that was all from a book looking in hindsight at prior crashes, prior to 2008 and whatever changes they've made since then.