Live data from Hacker News

Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?

news.ycombinator.com

21–30 of 59 posts

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?

#21

AI will achieve self-awareness and then realize that critical thinking is too hard, then will become a social media influencer and global pop star.

It doesn't need self awareness. Someone trained a bunch of AI girlfriends on her own personality. And Miku has been around for a while. And fake influencer technology. It's only a matter of time before someone does it.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?

#22
post #18
post #6

Not long ago, Xi said, "Right now there are changes, the likes of which we haven't seen for 100 years..." I think he's referring to the establishment of BRICS and neutral settlement, and he sees the days of the dollar(petrodollar) as waning. But there are huge ramifications to that. The coming year could end up being note-worthy.

Si Jiping is a dictator and not a wise thinker.

Wouldn't that make his predictions even more significant? He controls the biggest population, second biggest economy in the world, one of the fastest growing economies and middle classes out there, has one of world's biggest network of spies feeding him info internally and externally. If anyone could manifest his fantasies, it would be Xi.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?

#23

More weird weather because of climate change. Heatwaves aswell as extreme cold snaps, no happy medium.

I'm most worried about rising sea levels. Climate change was a major election item here because we're getting massive floods every year.

Populist parties here promise world changing solutions - clean energy, carbon neutrality, etc. The more pragmatic ones suggest flood mitigation, mangrove forest coverage, still more sustainable energy but less aggressively.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?

#25

While a formalized concept of 'turing completeness' which could prove the equality of sufficiently advanced LLMs will not exist yet, it will become clear that all models of a certain capability are equally capable(just as all CPUs are equally capable) and LLMs will become a comodity traded by speed, price and context window width. Furthermore, it will be realized, that beyond a certain size, larger context windows le…

"At least one company will raise over $1billion on entirely fraudulent AI (using gpt's API and sleight of hand)."

I'd bet on grok.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?

#27
post #6

Not long ago, Xi said, "Right now there are changes, the likes of which we haven't seen for 100 years..." I think he's referring to the establishment of BRICS and neutral settlement, and he sees the days of the dollar(petrodollar) as waning. But there are huge ramifications to that. The coming year could end up being note-worthy.

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?

#28
1. AI will be adopted into more and more things, the AI industry will still grow, but nothing more impessive than e.g ChatGPT will appear in 2024.

2. China will not attack Taiwan

3. 2024 will be relatively boring year (in compare to last 3)

4. Nvidia will not grow to $650 or above

5. Electric cars hype will slow down

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?

#30
- “Halvening” of bitcoin supply around May will result in the price reaching ~$100,000 USD, per the stock-to-flow model. https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/stock-to-flow-model/

- AI will enter another ice age, rather unexpectedly, after it publicly contributes to something particularly egregious. Maybe it’s discovered that {company} helped generate a bunch of fake political ads (including faked audio and video)

- The US will withdraw significant financial and military support from Ukraine

- … in order to support Taiwan during a conflict that will break out in Spring 2024

- Significant FDI will migrate from China to India and Southeast Asia during ensuing conflict. China will experience a recession and social upheaval by Summer 2024 as a result.

No hard evidence for much of this. Just hunches

Post reply on HN