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https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f3/NA... If you look at nasdaq around the dotcom crash it also had a fake bounce before the real crash. Past doesn't predict the future but also no reason we couldn't be in a fake bounce now.
2021/2022 were insane here. Recruiters trying every angle to get your attention, companies doubling in size.
It feels like here (Ireland) though, the retreat was much less pronounced. It feels more like 2019/2020 than any kind of crash. I know people who have been laid off, they've found other jobs at comparable pay. I know people who've moved for more pay. _I've_ moved for significantly more pay and a more firm commitment to wfh.
There are some things that are unhealthy for sure. The market seems to have bifurcated between grads/juniors who are having a much harder time breaking in than previously, and mid level + who are basically unaffected. Possibly this will make its way up the ladder over time, but it basically started with the grad/junior market in 2020 before the interest rate increases.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f3/NA... If you look at nasdaq around the dotcom crash it also had a fake bounce before the real crash. Past doesn't predict the future but also no reason we couldn't be in a fake bounce now.
Yes, there are basic technical patterns that are used to repeat (or not!) but as others say in the dotcom crash there were no real Internet/technology penetration into the society: dot com companies tried to create a market that didn't exist and required time to be builts (e.g. mobile phones). Once the technology "eats everything" we are part of a new ecosystem and sometimes we are humans using tools but in many othe…
Then you have the true superstars of money burning, like the startups that distribute VC money to customers (e.g. Uber, but there's a ton more).
As long as the war in Ukraine lasts I don't think we are going to see any improvement. A lot of money is going there and so the value of the money remaining for investing, development, spending, is diminished. As for the war I initially guessed 3-5 years, now I'm guessing 10. So I'm quite pessimistic about the near future.
At the current attrition rates on both sides i can't imagine this was going on for 10 years. Then again i don't know your definition of "war"
There's too much cost to the current Russian regime in letting a Ukraine that is not a direct client of theirs succeed and potentially thrive. It would have a domino effect and the Russian federation could disintegrate or at least the ruling elites there lose control and privilege. It does not matter to them if Russian quality of life suffers as long as Ukraine suffers more.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f3/NA... If you look at nasdaq around the dotcom crash it also had a fake bounce before the real crash. Past doesn't predict the future but also no reason we couldn't be in a fake bounce now.
How?
Compared to today, no one was on the internet. Look up internet subscriber numbers from then.
There was no wifi.
There was no mobile data.
People were barely moving from dialup to high speed.
Cable modem was new. Adsl had just come out and was slow. Internet was not stable to be up and trusted all the time.
Businesses were not trusting their operations to SaaS.
E-commerce was tough, people didn’t trust credit cards online, and credit card processing was much harder to setup than today. There was nothing close to being as simple as Stripe. PayPal was it.
There were no huge social media networks, except for forums.
There was little to no advertising online, let alone advertising networks like today.
Discovery was an infant (Google was new), addressing markets was basic (little adtech).
One anecdote here: for me personally the job/funding market collapsed in maybe December of 2022. In November I got ~10 inbound pings from credible recruiters or HR folks at credible shops a week, and that was typical of probably the last 5 or 10 years. In December it was zero and has stayed zero until this month when I’ve had 2. Outbound resumes and pinging the network was pretty much “I wish I could help you” all ye…
> "compensation packages people are talking are still like a quarter of what was typical a year ago if that" You mean much less stock? I can't imagine a senior engineer getting a $50k in annual salary, only in the cash component.
I’m sort of L7/L8 with an ML infra focus in California and total cash a year ago seemed to be ~300-400k and now people are seeming to need to “call upstairs” to talk above 150. So maybe half-ish would be closer than the quarter-ish I threw out in my comment.
I was kind of factoring in inflation and that stock comp in a mature public company at a 30-40 PE is unlikely to hold up for 4 years.
For job seekers not at all. I just finished my job search after 5 months and 1 week. After 179 applications, 22 interviews, 2 offers later, I'd say that it's one of the toughest and miserable job market someone can find into. I job search-ed even during the pandemic, and although it was difficult, imho this one is order of magnitude worse... The Senior you are the better chance you'll have, but there is no market for…
Applying even with 4 years experience and good skill match has been a 100% rejection/ghosting rate across maybe a dozen+ job applications so far.
I agree with the sentiment about junior/entry level...everyone want a senior. Maybe I'm not looking at the insurance/bank/non-tech job boards and companies, maybe they have a few more junior/entry level positions. In startups and high-tech companies, 95% senior and above positions only.
Can't speak for startups, not a big employer in my market (possibly this is the cause of the mitigated impact here), but as for job seekers: 2021/2022 were insane here. Recruiters trying every angle to get your attention, companies doubling in size. It feels like here (Ireland) though, the retreat was much less pronounced. It feels more like 2019/2020 than any kind of crash. I know people who have been laid off, they…