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Ask HN: Problems for the next decade?

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Re: Ask HN: Problems for the next decade?

#22
Xanax/benzos are the most effective psych medicine, deserve to be over the counter, but can be fatally overdosed. All mental drugs and others such as chemotherapy need to be precisely targeted at limited part of an organ.

2030 4 high-NA EUV fabs will have 1.4 nano RiscV chips; rollable microLED; solid state battery. That's still not paper thin all day phones.

1 passenger, only autopilot drones should transport snakebite victims in dangerous countries.

Re: Ask HN: Problems for the next decade?

#25

The biggest problem domain worth pursuing is figuring out fusion. If we can unlock what is effectively limitless power a lot of problems become far more tractable. Everything else is a distraction. We need cheaper and more available power. Every physicist and engineer in the world should probably try dedicating at least one or two month of their life to figuring out fusion. If humanity could pay a trillion dollars to…

Is fusion really that great? Decades of research and billions of dollars later it's still not commercially feasible.

Whereas solar power is cheaper than coal now. Also on the horizon is thorium reactors.

Re: Ask HN: Problems for the next decade?

#26
post #2

We have an aging population and many places have a flat birthrate. We need to solve how to deal with this consequences. Who will care for these people? How will we deal with the consequences of flat population growth? How will we deal with the stock market's expectations of perpetual growth when the underlying population itself is not growing (and especially since productivity has also been relatively flat)?

> How will we

By adjusting which price to earnings multiple we want to tolerate, just like we always do

Or take a bearish position if it happens to match your risk tolerance at the time

The stock market will be fine, people will trade shares, who cares if the market price is greater or less than today’s

Re: Ask HN: Problems for the next decade?

#27
Reports released by IPCC and other organizations [0] indicate that we have 15 years to take drastic action on the environment. This tracks with the extremely accurate prediction from The Limits to Growth [1] published in 1972.

If we do not take action on climate _now_ then _nothing_ is going to matter.

We will enter into an irreversible feedback loop that causes human extinction, yet it won't be apparent until it is literally on the doorstep for people to realize.

If you are not quitting your job and working to advance the existential threat of climate change and the main driver of the catastrophe (capitalism and perpetual growth) then you are wasting your (and your children's) time.

An excellent book on what needs to be done is Less is More by Jason Hickel [2]. This is the only problem that matters since literally existence depends on solving it. The time for deep concern is over. Action is needed and it is needed now. Education, degrowth, reuse, technology. So put everything else aside or you are laboring (and living) for nothing.

[0]: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-023-01157-x

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth

[2]: https://www.jasonhickel.org/less-is-more

Re: Ask HN: Problems for the next decade?

#29
The world population is collapsing at a rapid pace.

Our economic growth is based on a growing productive population.

Our economic prosperity is based on a growing productive population.

Different parts of the world are dealing with population collapse.

Look at Japan, a xenophobic country facing population collapse. The total GDP has remain stagnant over the past 20 years.

Look at UAE, a country facing population collapse and acknowledging reality by handing our long-term residency permits to affulent immigrants, mostly Indian Hindus. They are even building the first Hindu temple in Islamic middle-east in Dubai!

Look at Africa, where the population growth combined with sectarian warfare is making for a troublesome living - https://pudding.cool/2018/07/airports/ South Africa is even regresssing. Rich businessman of Asian Indian origin who have lived for generations are already heading for UK/Canada. And with them tax base would collapse like Uganda (90% tax revenue came from Asian Indians in Uganda in 1972 - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-36132151).

Look at USA/Canada/Australia, all of them have low birth rate but compensate by being genuinely immigration friendly. They will grow while sucking even more productive population out of rest of the world.

The Europe would keep importing cheap labour (by choice) and welfare-loving immigrants from middle-east & Africa (by virtue of proximity). And they would transform Europe, how they tranformed Lebanon - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WubIe3c5NGc, further imagine how the voting blocks would look like when whites are rich & old while non-whites are poor & young. Why would they not demand higher taxation and lower welfare policies?

China would have same fate as Japan. Xenophobia with a collapsing population. China would appear a lot of more timid.

12,000 years ago, when sea levels rose, Tasmania lost connection to mainland Australia, and this lead to decline of knowledge and tools over time.

We might see the same in our world.

So, I believe population collapse is a huge problem.

Re: Ask HN: Problems for the next decade?

#30

The biggest problem domain worth pursuing is figuring out fusion. If we can unlock what is effectively limitless power a lot of problems become far more tractable. Everything else is a distraction. We need cheaper and more available power. Every physicist and engineer in the world should probably try dedicating at least one or two month of their life to figuring out fusion. If humanity could pay a trillion dollars to…

Is fusion really that great? Decades of research and billions of dollars later it's still not commercially feasible. Whereas solar power is cheaper than coal now. Also on the horizon is thorium reactors.

The funding is really not that great, we are on the funding level described as "fusion never" (https://benjaminreinhardt.com/fusion-never/)
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