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Ask HN: Do you trust solo entrepreneurs?

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Re: Ask HN: Do you trust solo entrepreneurs?

#21

Post by javajosh »

Alex3917 wrote: post #13

For your typical solo founder in their 30s, their odds of dying at any point over the next 10 years is something like 0.2%. And short of them dying, their business isn't going anywhere because keeping a SaaS startup online doesn't cost anything -- if you have the skills to do it yourself. Whereas the odds of a venture backed startup shutting down at any point over the next ten years is something like 30%. So from a r…

IANAA (I am not an actuary) but surely this can't be the entire computation. Death is only one reason a solo SaaS might fail. The real problem is mental noise, and the fact that large organizations have the positive side-effect of averaging out that noise to produce coherent, predictable actions. (The humanist wants to point out the "noise" is sentiment, artistry, beauty, and the coherent behavior is that of a profit-driven sociopath, but the point stands.)

What I'm saying is that their chance of death is .2% but their chance of discovering Buddha, deciding to give up everything and become a monk, or meeting the woman of their dreams and going to live the simple life in Thailand, and so on, are much, much greater.

Re: Ask HN: Do you trust solo entrepreneurs?

#22

Post by CoffeeOnWrite »

ushakov wrote: post #3
codingdave wrote: post #2

The question in the title would get a different answer than the question in your post. Do I trust solo entrepreneurs? Yes. Would I use their software within my organization? No. Or at least, not for anything critical. Not because I do not trust the person, but because life is crazy and that product's bus factor is too high.

what if you can self-host the product? i found this to be a great way to sell my software i’d offer prospects a partner agency, which will do the hosting, while i’m building the product the customers get guarantees, while me and the agency share the profits

We need more info. Is it open source? If so, how's the community around it?

Re: Ask HN: Do you trust solo entrepreneurs?

#23

Post by codingdave »

Alex3917 wrote: post #13

For your typical solo founder in their 30s, their odds of dying at any point over the next 10 years is something like 0.2%. And short of them dying, their business isn't going anywhere because keeping a SaaS startup online doesn't cost anything -- if you have the skills to do it yourself. Whereas the odds of a venture backed startup shutting down at any point over the next ten years is something like 30%. So from a r…

If it is working for you, that is great, but...

Death is not the only reason people quit working on a project. They could get a better offer, their family situation could change, they could get sick or injured, or they could simply get sick of it, just to name a few.

Also, keeping a SaaS online does cost money. And those costs increase as you scale. If you are small enough that you can run on a free tier, you are too small for me to have confidence that you are sticking around.

Re: Ask HN: Do you trust solo entrepreneurs?

#25

Post by xtiansimon »

IMHO a solo dev is like a privately owned business, like a baker. You’re going to make choices which effect the product. Cost cutting will reflect your values. So I expect idiosyncratic policies to be in effect. Some you never encounter, because they don’t effect the product. Some you learn of later and decide as a consumer if it’s a deal breaker. Either way social pressure is on the business owner to serve customers and play fair. Failing these, you will lose customers and rightfully so.

Now here’s my thing about software. That baker, when you provide your PII and financial data to them they’re using third party service. They’re not _in_ the data, unless they want to be.

Again, this is my opinion. I feel that when you’re _in_ the data—making decisions about data flow, management, PII— there is a moral and ethical danger a solo-developer can make bad decisions about a customer’s data.

That might be shocking idea, but just think about a savings and loan run by one person. You could get George Bailey, or Knuckles the Loan Shark.

Re: Ask HN: Do you trust solo entrepreneurs?

#26

Post by alcio »

Alex3917 wrote: post #13

For your typical solo founder in their 30s, their odds of dying at any point over the next 10 years is something like 0.2%. And short of them dying, their business isn't going anywhere because keeping a SaaS startup online doesn't cost anything -- if you have the skills to do it yourself. Whereas the odds of a venture backed startup shutting down at any point over the next ten years is something like 30%. So from a r…

> For your typical solo founder in their 30s, their odds of dying at any point over the next 10 years is something like 0.2%

The real figure is more 2.1% (source: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html)

Re: Ask HN: Do you trust solo entrepreneurs?

#28

Post by buf »

I'm the sole developer of www.castingcall.club and www.closingcredits.com. About 1M people use these two products a year and I've ran them for about 7 years.

While I have no plans of stopping working on them in the near term, I have listed that in the event of my death, an entrusted tech savvy person will take over these two companies.

That said, all my users have no guarantee that I'll continue to work on these products, but that's true of just about any company. I think as a solo developer I have to earn the trust of users by building in public and being a partial public figure.

Re: Ask HN: Do you trust solo entrepreneurs?

#29

Post by Alex3917 »

nxpnsv wrote: post #19
Alex3917 wrote: post #13

For your typical solo founder in their 30s, their odds of dying at any point over the next 10 years is something like 0.2%. And short of them dying, their business isn't going anywhere because keeping a SaaS startup online doesn't cost anything -- if you have the skills to do it yourself. Whereas the odds of a venture backed startup shutting down at any point over the next ten years is something like 30%. So from a r…

This is a neat reply. I guess there could be other factors that would lead someone to stop their solo biz though...

Sure. For context, this is for a new product that solves a real pain point, and for which there aren't any other solutions on the market. And it also doesn't really cost anything to integrate.

If this weren't solving a pain point and if there were other alternatives on the market, then this positioning might not work as well. But building something where folks don't really have any better choice was also a purposeful decision.

Re: Ask HN: Do you trust solo entrepreneurs?

#30

Post by throwoutway »

alcio wrote: post #26
Alex3917 wrote: post #13

For your typical solo founder in their 30s, their odds of dying at any point over the next 10 years is something like 0.2%. And short of them dying, their business isn't going anywhere because keeping a SaaS startup online doesn't cost anything -- if you have the skills to do it yourself. Whereas the odds of a venture backed startup shutting down at any point over the next ten years is something like 30%. So from a r…

> For your typical solo founder in their 30s, their odds of dying at any point over the next 10 years is something like 0.2% The real figure is more 2.1% (source: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html )

Which is about the same rate that airlines lose luggage. (Unrelated comparison but analogies can help)
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