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Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

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Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#21

Post by roenxi »

The value of a currency isn't exactly decided by what it is worth to Americans. Russia still has everything they had before the war, which is still as intrinsically valuable as ever & they are still willing to trade. They haven't changed their regulatory environment in crazy ways and haven't suffered major hits to their productive capacity.

In some senses, it is difficult to see why a sanctions attack against Russia would damage their currency that much. The fundamentals are still much the same. I still bought US products after Iraq and I'd still buy Russian products after Ukraine. I imagine most of the world feels similar. There are even some hints that parts of Europe feel that way.

Although, because I'm something of a gold bug, there are some unreliable claims they've re-introduced the gold standard (https://theconversation.com/why-russia-has-put-the-rouble-on...). That is an interesting thing that happened on the way through.

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#22

Post by tazjin »

oblio wrote: post #14
hatenberg wrote: post #4

Dead Cat Bounce brought to you by lots and lots of spending/maneuvering. Not sustainable. In about 2-3 months, Russia is fucked and will be forced to move to a new economic model apart from the world. The entire gambit was to take UA quickly and then use it as a pawn to get concessions from the West Now they are finding themselves fighting a nation with a direct IV line from the US defense budget (similar to Israel)…

> The entire gambit was to take UA quickly and then use it as a pawn to get concessions from the West. Nope, it was to take Ukraine quickly and parade it as an internal trophy, while also taking out a possible big competitor for the oil and gas market. Putin didn't want any concessions from the West, just business as usual. He wanted to be left alone to "digest Ukraine" and ponder next steps. Edit: I'd want to hear p…

Proof of contrary opinions is required, but proof of yours isn't?

Typical.

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#23

Post by hdjjhhvvhga »

Aeolun wrote: post #9
kalmi10 wrote: post #5

I remember hearing on France 24 (from Anastasiya Shapochkina iirc) when the sanctions were just being introduced that the sanctions would effectively make it cheaper for Russia to finance the war as most their monetary assets are in foreign currencies while most of their expenses are in rubel.

The big problem being that they can’t actually access most of those foreign assets now.

> problem

Makes you think about the inherent subjectivity of certain words.

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#24

Post by oblio »

tazjin wrote: post #22
oblio wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The entire gambit was to take UA quickly and then use it as a pawn to get concessions from the West. Nope, it was to take Ukraine quickly and parade it as an internal trophy, while also taking out a possible big competitor for the oil and gas market. Putin didn't want any concessions from the West, just business as usual. He wanted to be left alone to "digest Ukraine" and ponder next steps. Edit: I'd want to hear p…

Proof of contrary opinions is required, but proof of yours isn't? Typical.

No post body was provided.

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#25

Post by CamperBob2 »

oblio wrote: post #14
hatenberg wrote: post #4

Dead Cat Bounce brought to you by lots and lots of spending/maneuvering. Not sustainable. In about 2-3 months, Russia is fucked and will be forced to move to a new economic model apart from the world. The entire gambit was to take UA quickly and then use it as a pawn to get concessions from the West Now they are finding themselves fighting a nation with a direct IV line from the US defense budget (similar to Israel)…

> The entire gambit was to take UA quickly and then use it as a pawn to get concessions from the West. Nope, it was to take Ukraine quickly and parade it as an internal trophy, while also taking out a possible big competitor for the oil and gas market. Putin didn't want any concessions from the West, just business as usual. He wanted to be left alone to "digest Ukraine" and ponder next steps. Edit: I'd want to hear p…

As is usually the case when monstrous plots are afoot, the villain cheerfully told the world exactly what he was planning to do and why. He wants to recreate the Soviet Union.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/22/putin-...

Initial "peace proposals" from Russia included a rollback of NATO's military assistance to its 1997 condition, explicitly limiting the sovereignty of Poland and the Baltic states:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/17/russia-issues-...

It is, of course, absurd to think that Putin would have stopped at Ukraine's borders, if given a free hand (and a functioning army). He is a follower of Alexander Dugin's geopolitical school, in which Russia is the rightful caretaker of "Eurasian" civilization:

https://theconversation.com/alexander-dugin-eurasianism-and-...

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#26

Post by trentearl »

It didnt stabilize, only an illusion. The government introduced strict currency controls forcing business to hold rubles. Also foreign stock holders are not allowed to sell stocks and covert to dollars. The price listed isnt real because the market isnt real, I imagine buying an iphone in Moscow right now would cost much more than the rate would lead you to believe.

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#27

Post by IshKebab »

asplake wrote: post #10

The Economist (I’m a subscriber) did a podcast on this recently. Lots of measures, but bottom line it is not a convertible currency. The published rate is a bit of a fiction.

I don't see how that can really work unless the published rate isn't the actual market rate which would be ridiculous.

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#28

Post by oblio »

pjc50 wrote: post #20
oblio wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The entire gambit was to take UA quickly and then use it as a pawn to get concessions from the West. Nope, it was to take Ukraine quickly and parade it as an internal trophy, while also taking out a possible big competitor for the oil and gas market. Putin didn't want any concessions from the West, just business as usual. He wanted to be left alone to "digest Ukraine" and ponder next steps. Edit: I'd want to hear p…

I'm not sure anyone knows the "real" reason for all this, although we've heard a lot of stated ones.

Ukraine was "not negotiable" Russian according to multiple statements from Putin, so that part about "negotiating concessions" is provably false.

Why that was the case is indeed complex.

Russia did not try to negotiate Ukraine away initially. The messaging was clear: it's ours. Now they might negotiate something because Ukraine is kicking their teeth in, but that's after the fact and completely forced.

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#29

Post by H8crilA »

20% interest rates.

Yes, just raising rates to a high enough level is enough. This is macroeconomic policy 101. It will seriously deflate the Russian economy, recent World Bank projections are for a -11% GDP drop (Ukraine: -40% drop). That's a very severe recession. You can always defend a currency at the expense of jobs, it was done in the US too, by Paul Volcker.

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#30

Post by oblio »

CamperBob2 wrote: post #25
oblio wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The entire gambit was to take UA quickly and then use it as a pawn to get concessions from the West. Nope, it was to take Ukraine quickly and parade it as an internal trophy, while also taking out a possible big competitor for the oil and gas market. Putin didn't want any concessions from the West, just business as usual. He wanted to be left alone to "digest Ukraine" and ponder next steps. Edit: I'd want to hear p…

As is usually the case when monstrous plots are afoot, the villain cheerfully told the world exactly what he was planning to do and why. He wants to recreate the Soviet Union. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/22/putin-... Initial "peace proposals" from Russia included a rollback of NATO's military assistance to its 1997 condition, explicitly limiting the sovereignty of Poland and the Baltic states:…

> The entire gambit was to take UA quickly and then use it as a pawn to get concessions from the West

How does your comment follow logically from this one?

"We'll occupy Ukraine and we'll keep occupying it and we want you to give us more!"

What kind of negotiation with Ukraine was that?

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