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Ask HN: Can't Ukraine lease/sell border land to EU temporarily

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Re: Ask HN: Can't Ukraine lease/sell border land to EU temporarily

#21

Post by mhh__ »

templarchamp wrote: post #12
mhh__ wrote: post #8

I'm not sure that's the play. They don't need land, they need balls (i.e. if the Russians continue then fundamentally detach them from the modern world). On a tactical level they probably already have more than enough breathing room to be able to mobilize (which I would imagine the US has already done) every information gathering asset in the region to provide Intel to the Ukrainian troops. As far as I'm aware there…

I am not saying from defensive posture -but from a posture to prevent further escalation and aggression. Russia is able to do what it does is simply because it thinks it can get away with it. It is not fair - so ring fencing at the cheapest cost to force NATO to trigger Article V will give pause. will Russia cross the red line?

That makes more sense although I am still skeptical, i.e. the moment the line is crossed possibly by chance you then have an emboldened enemy.

Re: Ask HN: Can't Ukraine lease/sell border land to EU temporarily

#22

Post by templarchamp »

seszett wrote: post #18
templarchamp wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

what is EU going to do if Russia invades Poland anyway? Thermonuclear war? Are you saying the whole security apparatus and international institutions are all bluff? If so, Russia would have figured out the bluff by now.

Nuclear deterrence doesn't mean that France would retaliate with nuclear weapons to a conventional attack, but that French nuclear weapons make it unlikely, not worth it, for Russia to use its own weapons first.

Russia passed a law to use nukes for conventional attack even on foreign soil...

Re: Ask HN: Can't Ukraine lease/sell border land to EU temporarily

#24

Post by ben_w »

templarchamp wrote: post #14
pmoriarty wrote: post #11

So then if Russia continues to invade Ukraine anyway, what is the EU going to do? Is it going to fight Russia? That leads to nuclear war.

what is EU going to do if Russia invades Poland anyway? Thermonuclear war? Are you saying the whole security apparatus and international institutions are all bluff? If so, Russia would have figured out the bluff by now.

I don’t claim to know the right solution to any difficulties in international politics, but I can say the difference between the current situation and your hypothetical is that Poland is in the EU so Article 42.7 of the Lisbon treaty world apply, and is also in NATO so Article 5 of the NATO treaty would apply too.

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/meetdocs/2009_2014/documents/...

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm

Re: Ask HN: Can't Ukraine lease/sell border land to EU temporarily

#25

Post by ben_w »

templarchamp wrote: post #22
seszett wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nuclear deterrence doesn't mean that France would retaliate with nuclear weapons to a conventional attack, but that French nuclear weapons make it unlikely, not worth it, for Russia to use its own weapons first.

Russia passed a law to use nukes for conventional attack even on foreign soil...

That law doesn’t prevent ~200 Russian cities from being evaporated by the French nuclear arsenal, and neither world it prevent France from responding to a nuclear attack with said arsenal.

That, not law, is the important part of MAD.

Re: Ask HN: Can't Ukraine lease/sell border land to EU temporarily

#27

Post by littlestymaar »

klyrs wrote: post #6
templarchamp wrote: post #4

I think while Russia thinks creatively, the other side thinks linearly. Spain, UK, France or Poland should buy the land and poke a finger at the aggressor - just a thought.

Are any of them itching to enter a land war with Russia?

It looks like they don't, otherwise they would have deployed forces in Ukraine before the invasion forcing Russia to attack them first.

(And that's something we may regret, because I don't think Russia was willing to have a land war with a bunch of European armed forces either)

Re: Ask HN: Can't Ukraine lease/sell border land to EU temporarily

#28

Post by sharken »

pjerem wrote: post #20
templarchamp wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am not saying from defensive posture -but from a posture to prevent further escalation and aggression. Russia is able to do what it does is simply because it thinks it can get away with it. It is not fair - so ring fencing at the cheapest cost to force NATO to trigger Article V will give pause. will Russia cross the red line?

> will Russia cross the red line? Who knows ? And, furthermore, who will take the bet ?

Trump would be the closest to do that, just look at the rhetoric from the North Korea crisis in 2017:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017%E2%80%932018_North_Kore...

Re: Ask HN: Can't Ukraine lease/sell border land to EU temporarily

#30

Post by rambojazz »

Blackthorn wrote: post #10

Because if a EU country wanted to actually defend Ukraine, they'd just do it. They don't need to play that sort of ridiculous game. They can literally go in there with military assistance and start shooting. That they aren't doing that, means they don't actually have the will to defend Ukraine against Russia. Ukraine trying to play a little land border game isn't going to change that reality.

> That they aren't doing that, means they don't actually have the will to defend Ukraine against Russia

This is an oversimplification. They are willing to. However there is a hug step from offering economic support to sending your own troops on the field.

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