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Mostly no - if you look back more than a year, you'd see that quit rates are modestly higher than normal, but balanced out by the very low quit rates in 2020. If you do 2 year averages, the past two years looks the same as 2018-2019 or 2016-2017.
Source on these quit rates?
Anecdotally, my personal experience supports (3a), since I tried to find a new job in mid 2020 and found the job market incredibly challenging, but then looked again in mid 2021 and ended up finding a job I was excited about.
The first (3j also strikes me as valid as the possibility of f2f interviews was basically zero. Between social distancing and the collapse of border crossing and air travel “sitting tight” was prudent. Remote interviews lead into (4).
Edit: the loss of external child care forced some workers home. It’s possible the positives of at home care shifted the balance vs the expense of external care. And now, perhaps due to the difficulty of securing it.
For IT I'd be wanting to hear what the Indian part of HN says.
Generally for the West it's been at the expense of the developing countries.
How is IT in India and other non Western countries doing? They should rule out 4 (Are they being matched better in the USA?) but could confirm 5.
2. People had a taste of remote work freedom. That's an extra bargaining cheap when negotiating.
People mental health went to the bin after being locked up for so long and they either: - had enough of their company - had enough of their job at all
Hopefully it will translate to more small business entrepreneurship. We definitely need those given that the pandemic favoured incredibly big businesses (unsurprisingly)
Every tech company was forced into remote working, suddenly now every tech worker is (really) competing on the global job market, and the market is adjusting to the new offer/demand. That’s my theory.
When we transitioned to full remote, all of this was stripped away and I was left to focus purely on a product that on its own I was not passionate about (think ad-like product). I was met with a sudden loss in motivation, burnout, and decided to take 9 months off to pursue a tech unrelated hobby.
9 months after leaving, I have accepted a position with a 50% raise over to my previous job.
I think covid was a splash of cold water that's caused many of the people in my circle to re-evaluate how they spend their time. Tech workers are so in demand that we can freely change jobs so it follows that many people would availing that option.
Every tech company was forced into remote working, suddenly now every tech worker is (really) competing on the global job market, and the market is adjusting to the new offer/demand. That’s my theory.