Tesla will continue to lose market share of EV’s as the other manufacturers improve their offerings and capacity.
Ask HN: What do you think the world would be in 6 months – 1 year
21–30 of 34 posts
Re: Ask HN: What do you think the world would be in 6 months – 1 year
#22> How do you think the world would evolve in the mid-term: economy, globalization and debt; state of the pandemic with vaccines and variants, mass surveillance and social tensions, etc.
The only changes I see coming in the next 6 to 12 months in the U.S. are:
1. A very slight increase in the cost of tangible goods (grocery store JIT food [produce, dairy, and meat], gasoline/diesel, tech-based devices, and branded alcohol)
2. A similarly small increase in subscription and per-unit fees for internet-based services
3. Significantly more political and media focus on a common enemy to accommodate humanity's innate desire for conflict (currently I assume "white supremacy" as the boogeyman will continue)
4. A significant increase in usury rates across all spectra
5. At least one violent reaction to forced acceptance of non-heterosexuality (see also #3)
6. A slight, non-violent but socially widespread backlash against local government overreach, leading to increased centralization of legislative and/or judicial control
7. At least one more coronavirus strain/variant that will have very little scientific evidence for its difference but extremely vehement and vocal proponents both for and against any actions related to it, which may tie into #1, #3, #4, and definitely into #6
Re: Ask HN: What do you think the world would be in 6 months – 1 year
#23I think we’ll see more people switching over to web based technology as more and more applications get web versions. Eventually, OS won’t matter in the long term.
Seems like a stretch for 6-12months. Maybe 10-20 years this will be the case.
Re: Ask HN: What do you think the world would be in 6 months – 1 year
#24What I find challenging is to ascertain the outcomes of seemingly unexpected events, such as:
(1) a swift global economic crash and slow recovery (2) the intermittent breakdown or stoppage of global supply chains (3) the sending of non-vaccinated persons to quarantine work camps (4) unprecedented global mass migrations of peoples due to famines, pestilences, and war (5) The global economic impact of nuclear war across East Asia and South Asia. For example, EMP damage to infrastructure across the People's Republic of China, Republic of China, Japan, Republic of the Philippines, Republic of Korea, the Republic of India would gravely affect global markets.
Re: Ask HN: What do you think the world would be in 6 months – 1 year
#25It's quite hard to predict short-term trends. My guess is that the economy will be mostly fine. We might see a little slowing after the reopening and we may see some more volatility in the markets as central bankers become less accommodative and perhaps have to respond to inflation if it continues to push higher.
Debt (assuming you mean public debt) is a longer-term concern. Personally I doubt we'll see world leaders looking to address debt levels for another 5-10 years.
The pandemic will probably be in mostly the same place in 6 months. Infections may pick up a little into the winter months, especially if there are new variants that are more resistant to the current vaccines. However, my guess is we'll have another round of vaccines coming which will keep deaths at manageable levels without having to fully lock down again. That said, fear will remain high enough that politicians can continue to push through their surveillance agendas and continue to erode personal freedoms as they see fit.
Globalisation will become continue to be challenged as tensions between the US and China continue to escalate. Again, this is a longer-term concern, but I'm sure we'll see some notable progressions in that direction over the coming year.
My guess is that social tensions will continue to worsen. I personally believe that multi-culturalism will fail long-term, but in the short-term we'll continue to see problems like racial tensions escalate in the West. We'll also continue to see unrest as the divide between rich and poor continues to grow, but luckily for the rich the media and political class will be more focused on dividing us by race so a unified voice for working class voters will be impossible -- poor white voters will continue to vote republican and poor minority voters will continue to vote democrat, neither have an incentive to do anything but pander to their racially divided electorates.
Long-term we're done for. I suspect there are too many technological advancements coming and too many geopolitical risks for us not to screw something up. My guess is that the West will eventually enter a cold-war with China while social unrest will continue to rise. Politicians will respond to these threats by revoking more and more of our freedoms. Eventually something will break whether that's civil war (unlikely IMO), a hot war with China (more likely, but at least a decade or two out) or some technological disaster (genetically engineered viruses, AI, autonomous weaponry, etc).
My advice to everyone is to enjoy this period of history. I think these next few decades are going to test us more than we've ever been tested before as a species.
Re: Ask HN: What do you think the world would be in 6 months – 1 year
#26The discovery of a a vaccine side effect that causes a long term issue.
City properties prices to go up and rural properties prices to drop slightly
Food prices and other cost of goods increases
Businesses (mainly service) raising prices to outset additional covid costs and to make up for the year of hell.
The Vietam variant becoming the dominant covid strain
China not buying as many US bonds/dollars as economic war heats up.
Social causes fighting each other for the spotlight
People becoming more jaded and self centered
Re: Ask HN: What do you think the world would be in 6 months – 1 year
#27The Twitter dramas will still be apocalyptic. Hate will appear to spread but most real people won't care. Some will get excited enough to break things. Others will stand by and do nothing. More will at least notice.
There will be scandals over some of the big tech. Some more revelations around privacy. Government interference etc.
Vaccinations will do their thing. Another strain will appear.
China will continue stirring the pot and there will be a realisation about how deep their influence inside US tech and science really is. The US will gain fresh new but old opinions as they realise that oil is the least of their worries.
Water/food will become more noticeable as something worth fighting for.
And there will be a rock that will raise a lot of drama.
Other than that, people will complain about some show involving a man cheating on some woman while she is secretly cheating on him.
Re: Ask HN: What do you think the world would be in 6 months – 1 year
#28It will probably be the same as it is now. Between Fall to the Spring period the number of viral diseases rises, so there might be higher restrictions again.
Re: Ask HN: What do you think the world would be in 6 months – 1 year
#29It's complicated. The thing to remember is that successful cultures don't throw away elements that work(ed). The same way our genes are 90% to 99% "junk" our cultures are full of assimilated, dormant beliefs, myths, legends, traditions, children's stories. I think masks are with us forever. They will become more fashion-statement, like a bow tie, but they are now a part of us. Get used to it. We are going to see more…
About China, I am not sure about the stability of its power.
As it gets money from exportation, covid impacted it a lot, as we reduced our consumption. It is one of the country that is the more subject to globalization habit changes.
For masks, I see people making no effort while wearing them. At the start, we need "1" or "2 meter" distance between people. Now they have the mask, 30cm away is perfectly fine. I wonder which option is the best.
Re: Ask HN: What do you think the world would be in 6 months – 1 year
#30Thanks, that is a great question! It is also a topic that my family and friends prefer not to discuss, so I appreciate being able to express this: I think that corporate profits and people with high-value job skills or their own profitable companies or farms will be in fine shape. For the middle class and poor: inflation will get a lot worse and hurt these people. In the USA, it seems like neither political party is…
I appreciate your answer and all of the other.
I ask the question to try to see out of my bubble, where I only see a small part of the iceberg.
I support your point of view that low-skilled jobs would be the most impacted. Being part of a large company, we are in a very safe position.
With automation, companies are in a grey zone. Do they add more robots, so it improves the quality of life of workers while firing some/most of them, or do they prefer "social workers", doing repetitive tasks with no added value ? Which one is the most ethical ? Japan made the first choice, thanks to ageing population and absence of immigration to compensate.
I don't know the detail in USA, but the lack of social net / government-grants for unemployement does not help to secure a little bit. In France, the social net is not the answer, as it has many problems. Small businesses are closing because 1. They don't find employees (that converted to other jobs or prefer social grants or are completely unqualified), 2. Business is not restarting while government grants are shutting down, 3. They are sick of uncertaincy to open / close / protocols / etc.