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Ask HN: Should one diversify their stock portfolio

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Re: Ask HN: Should one diversify their stock portfolio

#22

Just because you come from the tech industry does not mean you know something special about the tech companies, their business prospects, financials and how attractively they are priced.

Another problem with concentrating in the industry in which one works (and even worse - the company for which one works), is that in the event of a downturn, both your job/career and your investments will be hit at the same time. Just when you need your investments the most, they will be worth less than you expected.

Dot Com is one of the biggest examples. Tech is everywhere now and it's less likely but I can definitely see this for crypto because everything is anchored on Bitcoin (and Tether).

Re: Ask HN: Should one diversify their stock portfolio

#23

Just because you come from the tech industry does not mean you know something special about the tech companies, their business prospects, financials and how attractively they are priced.

You have way more insight than the average non-tech person. You know who is big and a small fry in the game, know the trends. You read the tech news in the last 10 years. You have preferences and opinions.

I cannot say the same about say, agriculture, food or musical instruments.

So yeah, we have some kind of edge here.

Re: Ask HN: Should one diversify their stock portfolio

#24
post #23

Just because you come from the tech industry does not mean you know something special about the tech companies, their business prospects, financials and how attractively they are priced.

You have way more insight than the average non-tech person. You know who is big and a small fry in the game, know the trends. You read the tech news in the last 10 years. You have preferences and opinions. I cannot say the same about say, agriculture, food or musical instruments. So yeah, we have some kind of edge here.

You are not competing against the average non-tech person, but against professional investors that study the companies inside out, question the management, consult domain experts etc.

The knowledge you described is unlikely to give you an edge if you have never even looked at the companies' financials or don't know what a discounted cash flow is.

Re: Ask HN: Should one diversify their stock portfolio

#25
IMO holding individual stocks in most cases is silly. Unless you're willing to put in serious work (several hours a day) into deeply understanding companies and sectors so you can adequately value a stock you're probably better off just buying an index fund. And even if you do put in the time to understanding the investments you're making, you're still statistically unlikely to beat the market over extended periods of time.

As to whether you should diversify, there's really no right answer and it depends largely on your risk profile. Less diversification will typically provide better returns at the risk of greater losses. If you're really confident you know what you're doing arguably less diversification is better. More diversification generally means lower returns, but you'll also be less likely to get wiped out in the event of something like a dot-com bubble. With tech valuations being as high as they are today, it probably wouldn't be a bad idea to have some diversification outside of tech.

If you decide you still want to hold individual stocks and also want more diversification you could split your portfolio 50/50, with 50% in index funds and the other 50% in some individual companies you really like. Alternatively, you could pick some solid blue chip stocks to add to your portfolio. Stocks like BRK.B and KO are IMO great stocks to hold if you want some safe and steady returns.

Whatever you do you should be prepared for a worst case scenario. Over the last year or so I've warned people repeatedly that stocks like TSLA could lose up to 90% of their valuation and potentially never reach new highs if market conditions change. If you're portfolio is full of stocks with a risk profile similar to TSLA it's really just a matter of time before you get wiped out. Having 10% exposure to a stock like TSLA isn't necessarily a bad idea, but a portfolio full of stocks like TSLA is a guaranteed way to look like a genius until the market changes and you lose everything.

Another thing to remember is that every company goes to 0 eventually. Today I see a lot of people speak about tech companies that have only been around for a decade as being "long-term holds". Historically this isn't true. If you don't believe me just look at the largest companies in the world from just a few decades ago. If you're holding individual stocks you need to be occasionally repositioning your portfolio to reflect changes in the economy. This means you'll be paying more tax than if you just held an index fund over several decades so you also need to factor this in.

My guess is that the fact you've asked about diversification suggests that you probably do need to diversify a little.

Re: Ask HN: Should one diversify their stock portfolio

#26
For your retirement, yes diversify. Knowing and understanding technologies isn't the same thing as knowing and understanding tech stock. Just look at Peloton as an example - they did great during the pandemic, but just had a child die because of their treadmill and now lost 15% in a day. The US Government could break up Facebook tomorrow. Who knows? If you want to try and gamble do so with a little bit and see if you can beat the SP500 over a few years :)

If you invest in broad index funds in the long run (10, 20, 30 years) you are guaranteed to beat almost all actively managed funds. Fees are going to eat away at your gains and again most active investors can't beat the market in the long term. I use FSKAX with Fidelity but VTI is a similar ETF.

Re: Ask HN: Should one diversify their stock portfolio

#27
It's better to stick with the sectors you understand and have an edge over others, that's what Peter Lynch recommends in One up on wall street. It's difficult to follow this advice, especially when your sector loses steam, but you still have insights that outsiders don't have and over long term all sectors perform, see what's Pharma doing these days.

Re: Ask HN: Should one diversify their stock portfolio

#28

Just because you come from the tech industry does not mean you know something special about the tech companies, their business prospects, financials and how attractively they are priced.

Actually I do have special insights about the tech industry as a result of me being entrenched in it. These are views that have taken years to proliferate into mainstream consensus view. Investing against my insight into the industry is the best thing I've done.

Re: Ask HN: Should one diversify their stock portfolio

#29
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have way more insight than the average non-tech person. You know who is big and a small fry in the game, know the trends. You read the tech news in the last 10 years. You have preferences and opinions. I cannot say the same about say, agriculture, food or musical instruments. So yeah, we have some kind of edge here.

You are not competing against the average non-tech person, but against professional investors that study the companies inside out, question the management, consult domain experts etc. The knowledge you described is unlikely to give you an edge if you have never even looked at the companies' financials or don't know what a discounted cash flow is.

It doesn't take a genius or a DCF model to know that investing in Apple a couple years post-iPhone is a no-brainer. Momentum and trend based investing is just as successful as nerding out over numbers. You can simply be right in broad strokes and be successful - you don't have to get every detail right. It helps to have a long time horizon.

Re: Ask HN: Should one diversify their stock portfolio

#30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are not competing against the average non-tech person, but against professional investors that study the companies inside out, question the management, consult domain experts etc. The knowledge you described is unlikely to give you an edge if you have never even looked at the companies' financials or don't know what a discounted cash flow is.

It doesn't take a genius or a DCF model to know that investing in Apple a couple years post-iPhone is a no-brainer. Momentum and trend based investing is just as successful as nerding out over numbers. You can simply be right in broad strokes and be successful - you don't have to get every detail right. It helps to have a long time horizon.

Sounds like hindsight bias. If it was a no-brainer at the time, everyone would have wanted to buy Apple stock and few would have wanted to sell, pushing the price up to where it no longer is a no-brainer.
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