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Ask HN: Are we in tech-stock bubble?

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Re: Ask HN: Are we in tech-stock bubble?

#21

Post by OJFord »

seibelj wrote: post #16
cwwc wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s odd how it seems the US is capitalist on the way up, and socialist on the way down (for big co’s and industries - airlines, banks, ect). Good for equity investors. But - Individuals? We’re on our own. A bit crony, in my mind.

True capitalists do not applaud the crony capitalism common throughout the entire world. Japan’s government now owns sizable percentages or even outright majorities of all major corporations. The endless appetite for debt-fueled stimulus has led to crazy malinvestment that will be an extremely difficult pill to swallow when the bill finally comes due. Why even tax us anymore? If it’s so easy to print new money just s…

You can't (I think?) do progressive QE, so for most developed economies that's not the same thing.

Re: Ask HN: Are we in tech-stock bubble?

#23

Post by cma »

hindsightbias wrote: post #3

Unlike the dot-com era, Tesla makes real things. The valuation is unimportant as long as there isn’t something else for cash rich people to put their money into. Same for BTC or beach property.

> Tesla makes real things.

Well they redefined what full self driving means, that's for sure.

Re: Ask HN: Are we in tech-stock bubble?

#24

Post by vbtemp »

seibelj wrote: post #13
jokethrowaway wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you think it's going to happen to real estate? I'm a bit reluctant to invest in this market. The situation you described has the potential to wipe off quite a lot of money there as well.

Just find things the government can’t print more of, are desirable to a broad portion of the population, and are resistant to rapid increases in supply in response to demand. Gold, silver, bitcoin, land in desirable places. I also have the normal index funds and certain hand-picked stocks. One issue with stocks is companies can offer more of them in response to demand, unlike land or bitcoin. We are in a period of ra…

> We are in a period of rapid inflation but mainstream economists and the government pretend we aren’t. It has been going on for decades but the official inflation rate is supposedly sub-2% while healthcare, education, daycare, high-quality food, housing, and all manner of highly-desirable-yet-cannot-be-easily-created assets have gone way up in price and are unreachable to even the middle class let alone the poor.

Can't agree more. Cheap, imported crap remains cheap and crappy, and everyone pretends that because TVs and egg mcmuffins remain affordable to the common man, therefore inflation is under control. Meanwhile asset prices, healthcare, housing, education (i.e., all the real, actual things important for someone's life that take up the bulk of their income) balloon in price.

Re: Ask HN: Are we in tech-stock bubble?

#25

Post by mancerayder »

No one ever answers a question like that to a satisfying degree.

I made a bunch of money speculating on the swings of stocks. Not with options, just patience, and it enabled me to make wild returns. For example, I bought and sold Virgin Galactic 3 times over the past 13 or 14 months, which tripled my initial capital. I did similar but with a risky few pharma stocks. PLTR tripled since IPO (and unlike AirBNB it wasn't rigged to benefit banks-and-friends) so that's another 200% return. While many people dump their capital into index funds, I keep most of my money in cash and speculate wildly with a fraction of it, and my returns over the past 5 years exceed what many large funds do. I also learn about industries and follow news that I wouldn't otherwise. Stock market index funds terrify me because I want to use the cash in the coming years for property.

I don't know, but none of this seems healthy and normal. I've been following the financial press for a long time almost daily, and I'm pretty confident no one's proclamations of the bottom or top can be trusted in advance. We'll know in months or years whether we're in a top.

Re: Ask HN: Are we in tech-stock bubble?

#26

Post by michaeljohansen »

rainyMammoth wrote: post #19
maxharris wrote: post #14

TSLA? Entirely justified. I think we're headed to $4400/share by 2024. (See Cathie Wood's "golden goose" bull case for details.) I laid out my reasoning for getting in back in May 2020. I raised my position to 86% a month after writing this: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22970810

At this point, pretending that TSLA has anything to do with the company Tesla is grotesque. I applause the length to which you go to justify yourself. TSLA is a meme stock that operates on a narrative that "TSLA always goes up". It's pure speculation and that bubble is going to pop very badly. And it might take the whole economy with it now that it is in the SP500 with a ridiculous valuation.

S&P500 has a total market cap of $31T. Tesla's current piece of that index is ~2%. A bubble pop would be unlikely to "take the whole economy with it" (thankfully).

Re: Ask HN: Are we in tech-stock bubble?

#27

Post by maxharris »

rainyMammoth wrote: post #19
maxharris wrote: post #14

TSLA? Entirely justified. I think we're headed to $4400/share by 2024. (See Cathie Wood's "golden goose" bull case for details.) I laid out my reasoning for getting in back in May 2020. I raised my position to 86% a month after writing this: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22970810

At this point, pretending that TSLA has anything to do with the company Tesla is grotesque. I applause the length to which you go to justify yourself. TSLA is a meme stock that operates on a narrative that "TSLA always goes up". It's pure speculation and that bubble is going to pop very badly. And it might take the whole economy with it now that it is in the SP500 with a ridiculous valuation.

I'm sorry you missed out on one of the best investments of the decade, but there is a lot of room left for this to run.

Tesla's coming FSD and robotaxis still haven't been priced in. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hx7BXih7zx8

Re: Ask HN: Are we in tech-stock bubble?

#28

Post by thewarrior »

mancerayder wrote: post #25

No one ever answers a question like that to a satisfying degree. I made a bunch of money speculating on the swings of stocks. Not with options, just patience, and it enabled me to make wild returns. For example, I bought and sold Virgin Galactic 3 times over the past 13 or 14 months, which tripled my initial capital. I did similar but with a risky few pharma stocks. PLTR tripled since IPO (and unlike AirBNB it wasn't…

What portions of your returns are due to luck in your view ?

Also you said you entered and exited virgin 13 times. How do you time your exits. Are you willing to reveal your strategies or algorithms?

Re: Ask HN: Are we in tech-stock bubble?

#29

Post by thewarrior »

cwwc wrote: post #4

TSLA? Not justifiable from a pure numbers standpoint. But - other tech stocks? Arguably justifiable. Since the risk free rate (treasuries) has cratered, this has altered the DCF calculation that analysts use to value a company (the outcome is essentially this: the company is worth more, because this risk free rate is used in discounting the PV vs FV of the company’s cash flows). Thus, it makes sense to have companies…

One thing I don’t understand is this DCF rate is essentially decided by the government. It seems weird to me that all the government needs to do make the stock holders richer is to drop interest rates to near zero. That seems like creating wealth out of nothing.

Re: Ask HN: Are we in tech-stock bubble?

#30

Post by rat9988 »

seibelj wrote: post #16
cwwc wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s odd how it seems the US is capitalist on the way up, and socialist on the way down (for big co’s and industries - airlines, banks, ect). Good for equity investors. But - Individuals? We’re on our own. A bit crony, in my mind.

True capitalists do not applaud the crony capitalism common throughout the entire world. Japan’s government now owns sizable percentages or even outright majorities of all major corporations. The endless appetite for debt-fueled stimulus has led to crazy malinvestment that will be an extremely difficult pill to swallow when the bill finally comes due. Why even tax us anymore? If it’s so easy to print new money just s…

> Japan’s government now owns sizable percentages or even outright majorities of all major corporations

Is it a positive or negative thing? (honest question, I don't have much knowledge in this area)

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