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Ask HN: Steady 4-5% on $5M?

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Re: Ask HN: Steady 4-5% on $5M?

#21
post #14

High dividend stocks or REITs. Some markets are currently paying more than 4% as a whole: https://www.starcapital.de/en/research/stock-market-valuatio... . Russian stocks pay above 7%. Asian REITs have high dividends as well, e.g.: https://sreit.fifthperson.com/

You pay a lot of taxes on High Dividend stocks just FYI.

Re: Ask HN: Steady 4-5% on $5M?

#22

AT&T give 7% dividend. VZ give 4.5% dividend. There should be good quality stocks which easily pay 3% dividend. If you do drip in 4 to 5 years it might become 4%-5%. But always there is a risk though

When government bond yields are below 1% from maturities from 0 to 10 years, there is no safe 4-5% return. The price/earnings ratio (or its inverse, the earnings yield), is a better measure of stock valuation than the dividend yield. In a taxable account it is better to get capital gains because of stock buybacks than to get dividends.

> In a taxable account it is better to get capital gains because of stock buybacks than to get dividends.

This ends up being a lot of money on a 5M investment, good call out.

Re: Ask HN: Steady 4-5% on $5M?

#23
Assuming that in order to preserve wealth you are targeting 4-5% safe withdrawal rate (including inflation adjustments), an all-weather portfolio or risk parity type of portfolios can serve this purpose well and designed to be very resilient and robust to different market environments.

Checkout various implementations of these portfolios:

1) Understanding All-weather portfolio: https://ofdollarsanddata.com/ray-dalio-all-weather-portfolio...

2) The Permanent Portfolio: https://www.bogleheads.org/blog/2014/09/11/harry-brownes-per...

3) Golden butterfly portfolio: https://portfoliocharts.com/2016/04/18/the-theory-behind-the...

4) All-in-one Risk Parity ETF based on an actively managed index: RPAR ETF: https://rparetf.com/rpar

5) Wealthfront risk parity mutual fund WFRPX: https://research.wealthfront.com/whitepapers/risk-parity/

Re: Ask HN: Steady 4-5% on $5M?

#24

If you mean 4-5% annual average return, just stick it in a total stock market index fund. There's no reason to pursue interesting or creative ideas or even spend any brain power researching all sorts of options. Since its inception in 2000, VTSAX has an average annual return of 7.18% [0]. That's 20 years, multiple US presidential administrations, multiple people running the Federal Reserve, and a big economic downtur…

At 5 million, you're in VITSX, not VTSAX.

Re: Ask HN: Steady 4-5% on $5M?

#25
post #15
post #9

This is the whole premise of FIRE[1]. Invest in a S&P index fund and you should be able to pull out 4% or so without ever running out of money. 1. https://old.reddit.com/r/fire

https://old.reddit.com/r/financialindependence is the right link

That's the bigger sub, but also one that stifles basically all conversation. /r/fire is the right place imo.

Re: Ask HN: Steady 4-5% on $5M?

#26
Steady 4-5% is a lot in North America, considering the rate is low at the moment. If you are willing to invest in some other parts of the world, 4%-5% could be the norm, for example China 10Y- bond is at 3.157% and you could probably find some relatively safe bonds with 1% above 10Y bond. But then you are going to be exposed to exchange risk and political risk. So far I don't really see any "safe" option here.

In Canada we do see 2% - 2.5% GIC offerd by some of the banks from time to time with a bit of bonus (say $1,500 maximum), but it's still far from 4% to 5%.

Re: Ask HN: Steady 4-5% on $5M?

#28
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://old.reddit.com/r/financialindependence is the right link

That's the bigger sub, but also one that stifles basically all conversation. /r/fire is the right place imo.

Check out /r/fatfire it's more appealing for this situation.

Re: Ask HN: Steady 4-5% on $5M?

#30

If you mean 4-5% annual average return, just stick it in a total stock market index fund. There's no reason to pursue interesting or creative ideas or even spend any brain power researching all sorts of options. Since its inception in 2000, VTSAX has an average annual return of 7.18% [0]. That's 20 years, multiple US presidential administrations, multiple people running the Federal Reserve, and a big economic downtur…

At 5 million, you're in VITSX, not VTSAX.

If you really care about the difference between 0.03% and 0.04% expenses, then the logical thing to do would be to choose VTI. What's the advantage of VITSX, especially if you have exactly the minimum?
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