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Ask HN: How in the world is $TSLA worth more than $TM?

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21–30 of 45 posts

Re: Ask HN: How in the world is $TSLA worth more than $TM?

#21

Company "worth" is calculated as: last sale price * number of shares outstanding stock is held by founders and fans ==> few sellers more buyers than sellers ==> stock price goes up ==> inflates worth Company worth is an imperfect metric at best and non-sensical at worst.

I've heard this argument many times, but consider that everyone holding a share has the option to sell at the market (last sale price) and are choosing not to. That seems like a pretty fair way of calculating worth.

Re: Ask HN: How in the world is $TSLA worth more than $TM?

#23

It's not. Enterprise value of Toyota: $318B Enterprise value of Tesla: $205B

A little more info for the curious:

Toyota Market Cap: 171.994B

Tesla Market Cap: 205.619B

> Market capitalization, commonly called market cap, is the market value of a publicly traded company's outstanding shares

> Market cap is given by the formula MC = N * P, where MC is the market capitalization, N is the number of shares outstanding, and P is the closing price per share

> A more comprehensive measure is enterprise value (EV), which gives effect to outstanding debt, preferred stock, and other factors

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_capitalization

Re: Ask HN: How in the world is $TSLA worth more than $TM?

#24
It isn't worth that much. It is however successful at making its stock price go up. These are not the same thing. If one share trades hands at $0.01 above the market then the market cap is outstanding shares * new price. Tesla has something like 185 million outstanding shares. That means a 1 cent change in price nets the market cap of the company 1.85 million. $0.01 = $1.8 million. Does that seem like a reality based means of setting the value of anything? It's about human psychology in the setting of a game at that moment. I would not take a linear extrapolation of that as a meaningful metric of the value of a company.

You can go down rabbit holes of apparent market manipulation, seeming fraudulent financial statements, an unquestioning media, toothless and out to lunch regulators, bubble inducing liquidity pushed by central banks but that stuff doesn't matter until it does. See Wirecard, Enron, Et al.

Re: Ask HN: How in the world is $TSLA worth more than $TM?

#26

It's not. Enterprise value of Toyota: $318B Enterprise value of Tesla: $205B

According to the NYSE, the market cap of $TM is $171.88B and $TSLA is $205.88B.

That's the point. Market cap is only a portion of enterprise value.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/enterprisevalue.asp

Re: Ask HN: How in the world is $TSLA worth more than $TM?

#27

Company "worth" is calculated as: last sale price * number of shares outstanding stock is held by founders and fans ==> few sellers more buyers than sellers ==> stock price goes up ==> inflates worth Company worth is an imperfect metric at best and non-sensical at worst.

I've heard this argument many times, but consider that everyone holding a share has the option to sell at the market (last sale price) and are choosing not to. That seems like a pretty fair way of calculating worth.

but if all of them would, the price would fall...

Re: Ask HN: How in the world is $TSLA worth more than $TM?

#28

Company "worth" is calculated as: last sale price * number of shares outstanding stock is held by founders and fans ==> few sellers more buyers than sellers ==> stock price goes up ==> inflates worth Company worth is an imperfect metric at best and non-sensical at worst.

I've heard this argument many times, but consider that everyone holding a share has the option to sell at the market (last sale price) and are choosing not to. That seems like a pretty fair way of calculating worth.

Good point.

Stockholders are not free to sell, technically or for practical purposes. Many stockholders are under restrictions to hold like employees, founders, index funds etc. Most non-index institutional holders have to hold TSLA if they want exposure to Automotive, EV, Battery industries. There is simply no option.

On non-technical restrictions, what do you think will happen to TSLA,FB or AMZN stock if Musk, Zuck or Bezos started dumping their holdings respectively. The stock holds up precisely because the the founder is holding it. Necessary but not sufficient.

Finally not everyone who wants to sell can avail the last price. Every bid taker (seller) causes a price impact. This has been explored extensively by academics in Market impact models and Optimal execution of block trades. See [1] and [2]. This is the financial econometric model of "a rush for the exits will cause a stock to crater".

Last price is imperfect but not useless. Depends on how much signal vs. noise you attribute to the sale price in the value discovery process.

[1] http://tuvalu.santafe.edu/~jdf/papers/mastercurve.pdf

[2] https://www.math.nyu.edu/faculty/chriss/optliq_f.pdf

Re: Ask HN: How in the world is $TSLA worth more than $TM?

#29
post #3

Because stock prices reflect future earnings, not past earnings. Basically, people buying TSLA stock believe future sales will be larger than Toyota.

Future Earnings + Current net assets.

I have a hard time seeing how future earnings of Tesla even exceeds the liquidation value of Toyota, given the stock has never made earnings a year in its life.

Re: Ask HN: How in the world is $TSLA worth more than $TM?

#30
post #4
post #3

Because stock prices reflect future earnings, not past earnings. Basically, people buying TSLA stock believe future sales will be larger than Toyota.

Many of them believe that Tesla stock will somehow get them a piece of spacex. Many more are just following the price.

And they would have to pay market rates for that. There's no upside there.
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