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Ask HN: How is actually Italy confirming SARS-Cov2 cases?

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Re: Ask HN: How is actually Italy confirming SARS-Cov2 cases?

#21

Post by dylz »

dakrisht wrote: post #9
erk__ wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It very much is. When you are limited in every way you have make some cuts. This is just the cut that says that it is probably covid if it is not flu and they are from an area with test confirmed cases. And in by far most cases it is going to be correct. Probably as correct as the current test for covid.

So 200,000+ people under mandatory lockdown went to a clinic (not a drive through test, a physical clinic), lined up and waited to get tested for Influenza which was assumed to be SARS-Cov2? Or maybe Italy tested 200,000+ samples with RT-PCR technology with machines and labs and tests / swabs they don’t have? Not trying at all to spin conspiracy theories here but these numbers simply do not add up. As a corollary: th…

This is very much a game of assumptions and a game of cutting corners at this point. It's wartime. The hospitals near me are literally using pieces of cotton, cut shirts, hand-sewn layers, instead of regulation-required certified N95 masks.

Re: Ask HN: How is actually Italy confirming SARS-Cov2 cases?

#22

Post by lpinca »

dakrisht wrote: post #11
ramblerman wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wow really. Do you have a source for that? Because if true, combine that with the facts that - 87% of deaths occur at home and not in ICU [1] - median age of deaths is 80 years old [2] Are all deaths just being counted as Covid-19 (without test then)? I think it would be really interesting to compare baseline deaths in February/March from previous years to this one. [1] https://www.tgcom24.mediaset.it/cronaca/coronav…

This is another valid point and disturbing point. Italians are most likely counting most if not all deaths as SARS-Cov2 deaths. 1) A large amount of the elderly are going to hospitals because of pre-existing conditions that might be flaring up or presenting as they normally do. They enter the clinic > get complications > get marked down as dying from SARS-Cov2. And/or they acquire hospital acquired pneumonia (HAP). 2…

> There is NO WAY in hell the Italians have tested over 200,000 patients for SARS-Cov2 in a matter of 2-3 weeks due to

See https://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/coronavirus/#box_6 that graphs shows the number of tampons per day.

https://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/coronavirus/#box_5 total tampons: 233222. The source is the Italian Ministry of Health.

Also in Italy, unlike what happens in other countries, all deceased people positive to the test are classified as "Covid deaths", regardless of the simultaneous presence of other serious diseases.

Re: Ask HN: How is actually Italy confirming SARS-Cov2 cases?

#23

Post by dx034 »

I'm not sure about the testing regime they use but they publish the number of people tested on a daily basis. The data is available on wikipedia [1], currently they stand at ~233,000.

As an orientation, Germany doesn't publish aggregated numbers but federal organizations said in an interview that at the moment, ~100-150k tests per week are performed, so the positive rate there should be [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_I...

Re: Ask HN: How is actually Italy confirming SARS-Cov2 cases?

#24

Post by [deleted] »

dakrisht wrote: post #17
acqq wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think it would be really interesting to compare It is already compared. On https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_I... you can easily see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Is_COVID-19_like_a_flu%3F... and it's not flu and the number of people who can't breathe, have fever and die is orders of magnitude higher.

I see the data. There is a surge, obviously. However, this assumes the current surge deaths are 100% SARS-Cov2 confirmed infections. They aren’t. At least not 100% Assumption can be made “atypical, bad flu season” but safer bet is on “newly discovered virus out of China that did x and y and z damage over there.” While both theories are just that, theories. There is no empirical data which PROVES x-cases and y-surge i…

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: How is actually Italy confirming SARS-Cov2 cases?

#25

Post by DrNuke »

The quick answer is any emerged, severe case or death with the suspected presence of bilateral interstitial pneumonia (which symptoms are now well known globally) is registered as a covid case. It is fair enough when hospitals are out of capacity and people just die at home. The underlying point is Lombardy is suspected to have x5-x10 active circulating covid cases, which would put mortality at the same and more coherent, global rate. The fact that co-morbidity cases are all put into the same coronavirus basket is what makes numbers so high, but please consider these are all people who would not die today without coronavirus, and there is really no allowed time or resources to make better classification when more and more cases come knocking at the door daily.

Re: Ask HN: How is actually Italy confirming SARS-Cov2 cases?

#26

Post by easytiger »

DrNuke wrote: post #25

The quick answer is any emerged, severe case or death with the suspected presence of bilateral interstitial pneumonia (which symptoms are now well known globally) is registered as a covid case. It is fair enough when hospitals are out of capacity and people just die at home. The underlying point is Lombardy is suspected to have x5-x10 active circulating covid cases, which would put mortality at the same and more cohe…

> The quick answer is any emerged, severe case or death with the suspected presence of bilateral interstitial pneumonia (which symptoms are now well known globally) is registered as a covid case.

It's not really acceptable in a country than loses between 8-24k people a year to influenza strains anyway.

Are you sure this is true? Another post claims all dead are tested.

Re: Ask HN: How is actually Italy confirming SARS-Cov2 cases?

#27

Post by easytiger »

diracwasright wrote: post #20
dakrisht wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see the data. There is a surge, obviously. However, this assumes the current surge deaths are 100% SARS-Cov2 confirmed infections. They aren’t. At least not 100% Assumption can be made “atypical, bad flu season” but safer bet is on “newly discovered virus out of China that did x and y and z damage over there.” While both theories are just that, theories. There is no empirical data which PROVES x-cases and y-surge i…

All dead patients were tested and they were positive. The Italian ISS is reporting that those patients went full ICU with the most common symptoms associated with Covid-19, notably respiratory failure, then "danno renale acuto", "danno miocardico acuto" and "dovrainfezione", which I'm not going to translate for you, and this is happening regardless of their pre-existing conditions. There's no easy assumption except y…

> All dead patients were tested and they were positive

Good to hear. Is there an official statement on that?

> Also, there is no guessing game as to who is affected by the virus.

In what sense do you mean? No guessing about what?

Re: Ask HN: How is actually Italy confirming SARS-Cov2 cases?

#28

Post by DrNuke »

easytiger wrote: post #26
DrNuke wrote: post #25

The quick answer is any emerged, severe case or death with the suspected presence of bilateral interstitial pneumonia (which symptoms are now well known globally) is registered as a covid case. It is fair enough when hospitals are out of capacity and people just die at home. The underlying point is Lombardy is suspected to have x5-x10 active circulating covid cases, which would put mortality at the same and more cohe…

> The quick answer is any emerged, severe case or death with the suspected presence of bilateral interstitial pneumonia (which symptoms are now well known globally) is registered as a covid case. It's not really acceptable in a country than loses between 8-24k people a year to influenza strains anyway. Are you sure this is true? Another post claims all dead are tested.

Dead are all tested... when dead. If coronavirus accelerates the passing away of chronically ill or severely ill people, would you count that as a covid death? Italy does, that’s the point. And it is not influenza, please stop that, the particular pneumonia associated with covid is viral instead of bacterial, and there is no antibiotic for that, only drugs (experimental, allowed for compassionate use) mitigating the quick and deadly inflammation effects.

Re: Ask HN: How is actually Italy confirming SARS-Cov2 cases?

#29

Post by easytiger »

DrNuke wrote: post #28
easytiger wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The quick answer is any emerged, severe case or death with the suspected presence of bilateral interstitial pneumonia (which symptoms are now well known globally) is registered as a covid case. It's not really acceptable in a country than loses between 8-24k people a year to influenza strains anyway. Are you sure this is true? Another post claims all dead are tested.

Dead are all tested... when dead. If coronavirus accelerates the passing away of chronically ill or severely ill people, would you count that as a covid death? Italy does, that’s the point. And it is not influenza, please stop that, the particular pneumonia associated with covid is viral instead of bacterial, and there is no antibiotic for that, only drugs (experimental, allowed for compassionate use) mitigating the…

I see your point.

Italy always fares poorly year on year on flu seasons

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S120197121...

> We estimated excess deaths of 7,027, 20,259, 15,801 and 24,981 attributable to influenza epidemics in the 2013/14, 2014/15, 2015/16

> And it is not influenza, please stop that,

I never asserted that it was, if you read the comment you will see that I was asserting that they usually fare poorly in influenza seasonal outbreaks. For the same reasons it's faring poorly with cv19

Re: Ask HN: How is actually Italy confirming SARS-Cov2 cases?

#30

Post by nirse »

easytiger wrote: post #26
DrNuke wrote: post #25

The quick answer is any emerged, severe case or death with the suspected presence of bilateral interstitial pneumonia (which symptoms are now well known globally) is registered as a covid case. It is fair enough when hospitals are out of capacity and people just die at home. The underlying point is Lombardy is suspected to have x5-x10 active circulating covid cases, which would put mortality at the same and more cohe…

> The quick answer is any emerged, severe case or death with the suspected presence of bilateral interstitial pneumonia (which symptoms are now well known globally) is registered as a covid case. It's not really acceptable in a country than loses between 8-24k people a year to influenza strains anyway. Are you sure this is true? Another post claims all dead are tested.

> It's not really acceptable

I think using these kind of terms is unwise in these troubled days, unless you are a professional in the relavant field, and if you are, Hackernews isn't the platform for the discussion.

An epidemiologist friend explained various things to me the other day: 1. hardly anyone dies OF covid-19 (cause of death on death certificate), people die WITH covid-19 (in which case it would still be mentioned somewhere on the death certificate). 2. A great many different statistics are generally gathered, but these are complex and need a lot of knowledge to interpret. These would include cases where Covid-19 was suspected to be involved, confirmed to be involved, prime cause of death (which is very rare, according to my friend). In the end, the general public is presented with a single number which indeed doesn't tell the whole story, but at least gives some indication of the situation.

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