Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown? • Hacker News Board

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#21

Post by baytrailcat » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 7:03 PM UTC

Leary wrote: post #3

Resume work after countries have the capacity to test everyone who has a fever. Maintain strong hygiene and social distance if possible. Firefight clusters of outbreaks where they occur. Wait for treatment and vaccine.

This is my line of thinking too. Let's face it, the entire economy can't be shutdown till vaccines are available. Use this borrowed time (when we can afford total lockdown) to mass produce tests, medicines, ventilators, build hospitals, train staff etc. Relax restrictions slowly. Test everyone. Lock down specific areas where outbreak occurs. I really hope our leaders have experts in their staff who can model this.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#22

Post by ChuckMcM » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 7:05 PM UTC

It's a good question. I've been thinking of it this way;

If we have an "unlimited" (by which I mean we manufacture them faster than we consume them) number of test kits with a turnaround time of People who test positive go into quarantine to be re-tested weekly until they are immune.

People who test immune are allowed to resume work movement while keeping good practice (washing hands, coughing into elbow, Etc.)

People who test as non-infected are required to come back for re-testing every week, can move around with social distancing.

I don't know if it would work (I'm not a public health professional) but from a systems perspective surveillance of the infection seems to be the best strategy for staying on top of outbreaks.

Once a vaccine is available it becomes one of the things you get every year like a flu shot.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#23

Post by kstenerud » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 7:05 PM UTC

drstewart wrote: post #19

kstenerud wrote: post #13

It's your typical pandemic response: - denial - placating measures - minor lockdowns - major lockdowns and panic (running to the store to stockpile toilet paper, for some reason) - total quarantine - life slowly returns to normal China is now on the final stage (restaurants and stores reopening, etc), with the rest of the world between 2 and 3 months behind. Most people are unable to comprehend exponential growth, so…

Total quarantine isn't happening in any western country

... except Italy

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#24

Post by aaron695 » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 7:08 PM UTC

How long did the HIV vaccine take?

Use that as a yard stuck.

A lockdown isn't 'successful' it does little, except drag society into the dirt while a little time is bought to work things out.

Time China bought us but we squandered.

If you're lucky it's a winter desease so it'll become summer and it'll die off. But that's coin flipping a little.

Treatments might be found but it's hard to know how fast, especially while everyone is on lockdown.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#25

Post by hackermailman » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 7:08 PM UTC

There's vids all over YouTube from WuHan what to expect. First the jubilant singing and party slogans, then screaming for help all night https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Zp3jH6iYrnw

Then each block is allowed movement after 2 months with community punishment if they hide cases and monetary incentive to follow rules, such as keeping contaminated clothing outside. Workers in critical industry will live at work and not allowed home to prevent contamination https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=yyucJekT87E

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#26

Post by dharmab » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 7:12 PM UTC

smoyer wrote: post #18

smacktoward wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The only way out for us unless we significantly ramp up testing and lockdown is to admit defeat and simply optimize for slowing down the onslaught. This has already happened. “Flatten the curve” takes it as written that most people will be exposed to the virus, and thus aims instead to just spread those exposures over a long enough period to avoid overwhelming the health care system.

I saw a statistical analysis of the flatten the curve idea but assuming we couldn't ramp up the number of intensive care beds, it took 3600 days to fit everyone in under the "available health care" line. It's still a good strategy for right now because it gives us some extra time to ramp testing and healthcare up.

Presumably not everyone needs a hospital bed. Most are fine to take a few days of bed rest, many who would normally be hospitalized out of caution can be cared for by family at home with teledoc guidance, it's a small percentage at high risk who need hospital care.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#27

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 7:14 PM UTC

drstewart wrote: post #19

kstenerud wrote: post #13

It's your typical pandemic response: - denial - placating measures - minor lockdowns - major lockdowns and panic (running to the store to stockpile toilet paper, for some reason) - total quarantine - life slowly returns to normal China is now on the final stage (restaurants and stores reopening, etc), with the rest of the world between 2 and 3 months behind. Most people are unable to comprehend exponential growth, so…

Total quarantine isn't happening in any western country

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#28

Post by asix66 » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 7:15 PM UTC

kstenerud wrote: post #13

It's your typical pandemic response: - denial - placating measures - minor lockdowns - major lockdowns and panic (running to the store to stockpile toilet paper, for some reason) - total quarantine - life slowly returns to normal China is now on the final stage (restaurants and stores reopening, etc), with the rest of the world between 2 and 3 months behind. Most people are unable to comprehend exponential growth, so…

And those who don't understand, or need a refresher on, exponential growth should watch this great video by 3Blue1Brown.

Exponential growth and epidemics:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#29

Post by friede » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 7:16 PM UTC

kstenerud wrote: post #23

drstewart wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Total quarantine isn't happening in any western country

... except Italy

and spain

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#30

Post by smoyer » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 7:16 PM UTC

dharmab wrote: post #26

smoyer wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I saw a statistical analysis of the flatten the curve idea but assuming we couldn't ramp up the number of intensive care beds, it took 3600 days to fit everyone in under the "available health care" line. It's still a good strategy for right now because it gives us some extra time to ramp testing and healthcare up.

Presumably not everyone needs a hospital bed. Most are fine to take a few days of bed rest, many who would normally be hospitalized out of caution can be cared for by family at home with teledoc guidance, it's a small percentage at high risk who need hospital care.

Yes ... it used the current percentage of those who get it and require hospital stays and those who need the IC along with the average number of days that they stay. Unfortunately, 70% of our capacity was full before the Coronavirus arrived so there's simply not that much capacity.