By 2030 there will at least one small settlement on Mars, population at least 100 but more likely 1,000.
I am pretty sure this won’t happen. Maybe a manned landing but I think we are far away from knowing how to sustain a large settlement off earth.
Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
21–30 of 1001 posts
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
#22I predict Apple/Google/Amazon/Facebook are only going to get more valuable and bigger. The previous idea that there are limits to growth that have already been reached... don't apply anymore. Not because they're any smarter than anyone else, but they're able to continuing buying and absorbing any and all competitive threats. And that the "moat" of initial costs to compete with them in existing areas is too high. (E.g…
This is just an extrapolation, not a 'prediction.' Like, you know, saying that "in the 20th century horses will be much stronger so that one horse will be able able to draw more than one carriage full of hay."
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
#23Here's to looking silly in 2030:
- very few desktop applications will exist, they will have moved to web assembly powered browser applications
- way more people will work from home and most "work" software will attempt to support this through real-time collaboration powered by CRDT/MRDTs.
- the dat:// protocol, ipfs, and other attempts at creating a decentralized internet will not take off, but the concepts will have a resurgence in the later decade (or possibly in the 2040s) due to interplanetary or otherwise far-distance space internet.
- way more folks will support nuclear as climate change forces the issue
- quantum computers won't fundamentally change the way normal people think about encryption, but instead some sites/apps will be considered "insecure" in the same way not using https is today.
- private car ownership will be on it's last legs, ride shares via self-driving cars plus revamped public transit will be the way the majority of folks get around. New developments will be built as "car free" without garages and with restricted car usage like many city centers.
- people will eat significantly less meat
- deno + Typescript wins
- Typescript (or a TS variant) will be compiled directly to WASM on the browser
- way more people order food rather than cook for themselves
- Many subscription consumer apps will die as many more folks enter into the field, driving up cost-of-acquisition
- Stripe becomes one of the most valuable companies in the world
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
#24A new tech company will make it big by selling privacy-minded devices (or by pretending to be privacy-minded). More companies will follow and a buzzword will be created for these kind of devices (privtech or something).
Big tech companies will stop using Javascript and go full WASM. Non-tech Companies will still use Javascript, but popular Javascript frameworks won't be as big as Angular and React, they will be jQuery reincarnations.
Some important person is going to be hacked and the consequences will be bigger than you think.
Foldable phones will make a big fuss and then die just like netbooks did 10 years ago.
Google will try to replace Android and fail. Flutter will be discontinued.
Someone will try to dethrone Youtube, making a big fuss, and fail miserably.
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
#25By 2030 there will at least one small settlement on Mars, population at least 100 but more likely 1,000.
Nah, the year 3020 sounds more likely, unless we're talking about the population of Tardigrades.
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
#26Here's to looking silly in 2030: - very few desktop applications will exist, they will have moved to web assembly powered browser applications - way more people will work from home and most "work" software will attempt to support this through real-time collaboration powered by CRDT/MRDTs. - the dat:// protocol, ipfs, and other attempts at creating a decentralized internet will not take off, but the concepts will have…
What, no 'true AI' (yet)?
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
#27My takeaway from reading the top voted 2010 predictions is that people are terrible about predicting what's going to happen 10 years later.
A few of them are correct (cheapish high density displays, commercially successful ebook readers, self-driving cars) but most are terribly inaccurate.
My fun (and probably wrong) predictions:
* Hacker News will still look mostly the same in 2030 as it does now and did in 2010.
* Most predictions in the parent post will be at most mildly accurate and otherwise completely wrong.
* The Artemis program, if it survives into the next administration, won't land anyone on the moon until the latter part of the decade (2025 or later).
* With the emerging increased commercial lift capacity we've been seeing in the last 5 years we'll possibly see the first commercial space station or at least the plans for one to start launching in the 2030's.
* (Unlikely) Elon will decide he wants his Roadster back. A Starship mission to demonstrate deep space recovery capability will launch to intercept the car and return it to Earth.
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
#281. Trust in journalists and news publications will continue to crater due to their inability to resist clickbait, sloppy ethic controls, and constant hyperboles.
2. China will enter a pronounced recession that is it unable to hide from the world.
3. The EU will lose at-least one more member nation after the United Kingdom leaves.
4. The credibility of scientist and research universities will hit all time lows as the effects of the replication crisis become more pronounced and climate changes predictions prove less accurate than lay people find acceptable. I expect this to result in a large pullback in funding for research that lacks a direct practical application.
5. Negative interest rates in EU will force more global dependency on the US dollar.
6. At-least one more country will adopt or de facto adopt the US dollar as their nation currency (dollarization).
7. The US will adopt a single payer or universal health care system.
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
#29Prediction for 2030. There will be 2030 new javascript frameworks.
Spot on
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
#30China doubles down on censorship and authoritarian government, but in the same time becoming world leader in some technology frontiers, stabilizing its government and leading to further polarization in tech. America no longer maintains its technology edge in silicon over the rest of the world.
Hong Kong becomes just a providence in China not because military intervention but because economic stagnation.
New houses are sold without kitchen and garage. City planning becomes a hot new field.
Wearable tech becomes much more in fashion. Medical devices tracking sleep, diet, or exercises are not only ubiquitous but necessary.
Rust takes off. Programming in Python becomes standard curriculum in high schools. We have less programmers, but more professionals who also programs.
Data Science is no longer a buzzword but just another part of programming. Modeling becomes less important, but the so call "ML OPS" will take off.
Math becomes much more important in programming and a sexy degree for college students.