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Ask HN: 2011 Predictions

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Re: Ask HN: 2011 Predictions

#21

Post by TomOfTTB »

General IT

=============

* I think the biggest trend is we’ll see computing further redefined. As tablets, Chrome based netbooks and more advanced smartphones flood into the market we’re going to see a bunch of people who realize they just don’t need a home PC anymore.

* In business I think we'll see a big increase in user-focused design. Too many corporations are running into problems with employees using web based solutions on their own to avoid the cumbersome software the company used (that was built based on corporate requirements rather than user friendly ones)

* In startups I think you're going to see the VC industry try to self regulate in the hope of preventing a bubble. So you'll start to see a coordinated effort to lower valuations and force startups into business plans that become profitable faster. ===========================================

My Domain (Mental Health Care & Education)

===========================================

* Mental Health: I think you'll finally see the cloud start to move into solutions that are HIPAA compliant (meaning they meet privacy standards).

* Education: Schools are reaching a cross roads where the teachers unions can no longer bully the districts into keeping teachers they can't afford (because there's simply no money left). With those schools trying desperately to teach more kids with fewer teachers I think you'll see a boon for technology.

=========

My Life

=========

My professional goal for the next year is to push more and more cloud based solutions (which I believe in more and more) and to try to use my connections to get cloud solutions to support the above mentioned confidentiality rules.

My personal/professional goal is to play around with the Kinect and try to find a way teachers could use it to give more interactive lectures (we already have projectors so if the teacher could control the content while lecturing I'm thinking there's a lot that could be accomplished)

Re: Ask HN: 2011 Predictions

#22

Post by _grrr »

dmix wrote: post #16
_grrr wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I were Microsoft I would want to be releasing a 'cloud only' device next year, all apps and data on the cloud. That would be pretty big.

Except when you make 75% of your revenue off of slow moving IT departments who use complex VPNs and Firewalls.

Well, different market. I was thinking more of home users.

Re: Ask HN: 2011 Predictions

#25

Post by russell »

chailatte wrote: post #3

Next year austerity and rising interest rate will take root in major economies, forced by runaway inflation in food, gas and commodity prices - caused by massive printing by US/Europe/Japan/China. This will result in money in flight from risky investments (emerging countries, startups, expansions) to safe investments, which will cause job losses in many of those sectors. Healthcare and Food industries will grow. Ente…

This is a curious expectation, but it feels right to me (with a degree in economics). Recessions are usually preceded by inflation, not followed, However, wars are usually followed by inflation. Since 1960 inflation has been over 600%, energy about 850%. My expectation, is that a huge amount of money has been pumped in to the economy to pay for the wars and the bail-outs. The money is being absorbed by the wars and the trade deficits. I think the current situation is unstable and it will blow up, perhaps in 2012. Certainly any austerity program that hits the middle class hard, and all the Rep. proposals do, will trigger political thrashing and immense hardship, something approaching the severity of the Depression, or we will get the typical end of war inflation.

Re: Ask HN: 2011 Predictions

#26

Post by Someone »

dmix wrote: post #16
_grrr wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I were Microsoft I would want to be releasing a 'cloud only' device next year, all apps and data on the cloud. That would be pretty big.

Except when you make 75% of your revenue off of slow moving IT departments who use complex VPNs and Firewalls.

Slow moving IT departments, by definition, will not move to cheaper alternatives overnight, but they will move eventually.

When they do, they better move to your cheaper alternative.

When they don't move at all, there always is the rest of the market that might move there. For example, if you buy cloud box, your Internet provider could give you 'free' Office in the cloud, just like they give you 'free' antivirus now.

I do not think this is an outrageous prediction. Both Google (Chrome OS) and MS (Office Live) are already moving there. One could even (weakly) argue that iPads and iPhones just cache cloud-based executables; Apple 'only' needs to fix its data storage solution. My bet is that that is what their rumoured new data center is for.

Re: Ask HN: 2011 Predictions

#27

Post by atamyrat »

Kilimanjaro wrote: post #5

Camera and facetime for the iPad. iPads and macbooks coming in colors. Web of things will kickoff with arduino and programmable toys that can be controlled from and ipad/iphone. Geolocation businesses are the new black. One can possibly disrupt eBay or craigslist. Facebook IPO will be the best evar in terms of hype and money made. Just to deflate at the end of the year and leave the tech world in ruins. Google IS the…

Year of the Linux desktop?

I'm just curious about actual numbers now. Did it reach 1% already?

Re: Ask HN: 2011 Predictions

#28

Post by russell »

chailatte wrote: post #12
_b8r0 wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your thoughts about inflation are interesting, as I've been expecting them year after year. I'm now convinced there's an effort to spin plates for want of a better word on a more or less global scale. If one major economy goes down it would drag others down with it. I don't think we'll see hyperinflation in the conventional sense, but to put it into perspective we have seen massive inflation in specific targeted area…

That reminds me: there will likely be a default by a major country next year that will drag every economy in the world along with it. My belief is that it will be Ireland, which will affect UK tremendously, since a lot of the Irish debt is held by UK.

Wow, Ireland is in a world of hurt. External debt is 10x GDP. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_d.... The US is at 94%, but Europe is way worse. Luxembourg is 38x. Could that be correct? Where is all this money roosting? For the US it's China, Japan, and OPEC, with China way out ahead.

Re: Ask HN: 2011 Predictions

#29

Post by cryptoz »

atamyrat wrote: post #27
Kilimanjaro wrote: post #5

Camera and facetime for the iPad. iPads and macbooks coming in colors. Web of things will kickoff with arduino and programmable toys that can be controlled from and ipad/iphone. Geolocation businesses are the new black. One can possibly disrupt eBay or craigslist. Facebook IPO will be the best evar in terms of hype and money made. Just to deflate at the end of the year and leave the tech world in ruins. Google IS the…

Year of the Linux desktop? I'm just curious about actual numbers now. Did it reach 1% already?

Does the desktop really matter, though? 2010 is clearly the Year of Linux on the Computer that Fits in your Pocket. Android's gains in smartphone share are nothing short of phenomenal. I think something like 25% of Q3 smartphone sales worldwide were Android...that's incredible. Linux is actually important in the consumer space, right now.

Re: Ask HN: 2011 Predictions

#30

Post by myth_drannon »

chailatte wrote: post #12
_b8r0 wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your thoughts about inflation are interesting, as I've been expecting them year after year. I'm now convinced there's an effort to spin plates for want of a better word on a more or less global scale. If one major economy goes down it would drag others down with it. I don't think we'll see hyperinflation in the conventional sense, but to put it into perspective we have seen massive inflation in specific targeted area…

That reminds me: there will likely be a default by a major country next year that will drag every economy in the world along with it. My belief is that it will be Ireland, which will affect UK tremendously, since a lot of the Irish debt is held by UK.

It can't default because it has already received the necessary funds from ECB and IMF. My take Spain is next.

Anyways, lets not turn HN to ZeroHedge :)

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