Honestly, I'd be a liar if I said that I knew. PaulAJ might have the best idea that I've read - force people to test the recovery option. Though sadly, I've never had much luck convincing really smart people to test that mission critical things like backups work, so my inner marketer fears what that kind of friction will do to user retention rates. For me, the central problem always comes down to mobile providers. I'…
login.gov at least makes you prove you copied the 2fa backup number... at least on the next screen. So far that's the best I've seen.
After dealing with the shitshow that is the treasury's login, I was pleasantly surprised that login.gov appears to be pretty good. I was literally feeling sick to my stomach when creating a login.gov account in anticipation of more crap, but nope turns out it's fine :)