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Ask HN: How do we know Bitcoin is not in a bubble?

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Re: Ask HN: How do we know Bitcoin is not in a bubble?

#21
post #9
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you are certain it will collapse you can make a lot of money shorting it. If you are 100% sure, there is no downside.

What financial mechanisms exist to short Bitcoin?

Here's an idea. Ethereum smart contracts to short bitcoin. You borrow my BTC for 30 days, with a 5% fee. Someone could make a killing off of that idea.

Re: Ask HN: How do we know Bitcoin is not in a bubble?

#22
post #9
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you are certain it will collapse you can make a lot of money shorting it. If you are 100% sure, there is no downside.

What financial mechanisms exist to short Bitcoin?

I used to short/long bitcoin/eth on GDAX, you have to register as a business and turn on Margin Trading

Re: Ask HN: How do we know Bitcoin is not in a bubble?

#23
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you are certain it will collapse you can make a lot of money shorting it. If you are 100% sure, there is no downside.

Is there even a US based legit platform to short Bitcoin? If Coinbase was serious about having a true market they would allow you to short Bitcoin as well as buy.

Coinbase does have a market tho, it's called GDAX, you use your coinbase login and it has margin trading on it. Once I found out about GDAX I never used coinbase again for trading currencies because GDAX has no transaction fees if you are creating the transaction ie. setting up the buy/sell limits

Re: Ask HN: How do we know Bitcoin is not in a bubble?

#24
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What financial mechanisms exist to short Bitcoin?

Here's an idea. Ethereum smart contracts to short bitcoin. You borrow my BTC for 30 days, with a 5% fee. Someone could make a killing off of that idea.

This is more of a general purpose app, but would work.

https://gofreakingdoit.com/

Re: Ask HN: How do we know Bitcoin is not in a bubble?

#25
post #4

As a fiat currency, it is almost by definition a bubble. It's fundamental value is essentially nil, yet it's "price" is positive. In the current equilibrium, people seem to agree that Bitcoin is a good store of value (because it is perhaps limited in supply and ownership is verifiable). Fortunately/unfortunately, other cryptocurrencies are just as useful in this regard. As such, Bitcoin's value is something of a suns…

"It's fundamental value is essentially nil," That's not strictly true. It's fundamental value is the effort required to obtain it - which at the moment is some rather large amount of electricity and hardware. If you have deployed those resources you will not let the Bitcoins go for any less in real exchange unless you absolutely have to. That is the same for anything that is a currency. It's base value is what you ha…

Your first paragraph basically describes the sunk cost fallacy. People have put money in, so they will make sure the value doesn't drop below their investment.

Re: Ask HN: How do we know Bitcoin is not in a bubble?

#26
Such price increases may be simply a bubble (possibly a temporary bubble as we've seen in the past), but they may also be a sudden price adjustment. One explanation for such a price adjustment is an increase in the number and wealth of its users. The user base has moved from crypto enthusiasts to wealthy individuals, and now it seems to institutional investors with bitcoin futures going ahead. Such a thing didn't exist before 2009, so we don't have much to go on as far as how valuable it'll be.

Cryptocurrency may not be pinned in value to anything tangible, but is useful and unique as an asset class for its ability to transfer ownership by virtual means. You can't store a bar of gold in your memory, and you can't send it through a computer. I believe its long term value is in how much people want money that has this property.

Long term, a threat to Bitcoin's value is competing altcoins. Bitcoin is arguably a bad cryptocurrency at a technical level (high transaction fees, slow transactions, bad for the environment, etc.), it's difficult to use for commerce, but seems to be winning out against the others for now, maybe just by first mover advantage and established network effect.

Re: Ask HN: How do we know Bitcoin is not in a bubble?

#27
post #4

As a fiat currency, it is almost by definition a bubble. It's fundamental value is essentially nil, yet it's "price" is positive. In the current equilibrium, people seem to agree that Bitcoin is a good store of value (because it is perhaps limited in supply and ownership is verifiable). Fortunately/unfortunately, other cryptocurrencies are just as useful in this regard. As such, Bitcoin's value is something of a suns…

"It's fundamental value is essentially nil," That's not strictly true. It's fundamental value is the effort required to obtain it - which at the moment is some rather large amount of electricity and hardware. If you have deployed those resources you will not let the Bitcoins go for any less in real exchange unless you absolutely have to. That is the same for anything that is a currency. It's base value is what you ha…

This is the labor theory of value and proven wrong. All value is subjective.
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