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Ask HN: Why can't we stop hurricanes?

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Re: Ask HN: Why can't we stop hurricanes?

#21
Should we stop hurricanes, even if we can?

Yes, hurricanes are destructive, especially to human settlements, but I'd be surprised if there aren't massive ecological benefits to hurricanes in spite of (or possibly because of) the destruction. Forest fires, for example, have well-documented, long-term ecological benefits. Unfortunately it looks like hurricanes aren't studied as much as forest fires.

Just doing some cursory researching online [1] [2], it looks like they basically act as dramatic "flushing" mechanisms:

- end droughts

- distribute heat from the equator towards the poles

- seed dispersal

- redistribute soil/sediments along coastlines and inlane

[1] https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-landfall...

[2] http://sciencing.com/positive-effects-hurricane-4462.html

Re: Ask HN: Why can't we stop hurricanes?

#22
I think it's one of those things where people have difficulties realizing the scale of things. For example hurricane Irma is the size of Texas or France. If it hits Florida, people won't need to evacuate Miami, they'll need to evacuate Florida. Think of the logistics it takes to evacuate a whole state basically overnight, and the size of a threat causing such event: if we barely have the know-how to run away in time, do you think we would have any know-how to block something of that magnitude?

Re: Ask HN: Why can't we stop hurricanes?

#23
How can we stop hurricanes? First, accept that climate change is real. Second, act on it.

Year after year the global temperature increases and year after year the hurricanes get stronger. All real climate scientists will tell you there's a correlation.

Re: Ask HN: Why can't we stop hurricanes?

#24
post #23

How can we stop hurricanes? First, accept that climate change is real. Second, act on it. Year after year the global temperature increases and year after year the hurricanes get stronger. All real climate scientists will tell you there's a correlation.

Where do I start with this?

I have no issue with climate change being real. Anyone with a modicum of sense can make those observations? However, your second point requires you to believe in the "dogma" of only anthropogenic causes for this climate change. At this point in time, we have no clue (and I mean no clue, irrespective of what any "real" climate scientist might pontificate) about the extent of actual causes of this climate change.

There may be (and I'm willing to give a small level anthropogenic causal effect) some changes that mankind can do to mitigate possible effects of climate change. They are limited and more in the line of defensive than anything else.

And before you ask, No I am not a climate scientist. But my experience with them is that when presented with specific questions related to the energy requirements of their predictions, they refuse to not only answer the raised questions, they will not dispute the energy calculations provided as a basis to the questions.

I have done a series of calculations, in which you can do the same, based on simple mandatory energy requirements that make the predictions of their models simply laughable.

My basic view today is that if a "real" climate scientist says anything, I will take that it that you had better check the silver draw to make sure the cutlery is still there. At this point in time, I consider it to be more pseudo-scientific than phrenology and I don't give that any regard at all.

And that is a pity, because we need some verifiable climate model will give level of predictability. We have none at this time.

Re: Ask HN: Why can't we stop hurricanes?

#25
post #12
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not going to stop hurricanes.

It for sure won't, but it definitely isn't helping

Interestingly, newer models are suggesting that hurricane activity will decrease with global warming.

Basically, as the temperature rises, the colder regions will increase in temperature the most - thus raising the global averages. Because of this lack of heat disparity, less transfer of usable energy, there will be fewer hurricanes and they think they will be weaker in general.

I'm on a tablet, but I can dig out the study (I think), if you want. Google will guide you, otherwise. I was just reading this a month or so back. From a physics viewpoint, it makes sense. Then again, I'm a mathematician and not a climate scientist.

Re: Ask HN: Why can't we stop hurricanes?

#26
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why not just harvest a hurricane's energy to weaken it?

The small ones output on the order of magnitude of the annual power consumption of the US in a matter of days. Where would you store the energy? How? Even if you could get wind turbines that could survive it...

Just been an overall question. There might be a solution no one ever thought about. Why wind turbines? Kites could work as well. There might be a better product not yet invented to solve the problem. It might be even better to start at an earlier point by extracting heat from the oceans to lower temperature and therefore avoid the formation of tropical storms at all. Just some brainstorming ideas :)

Re: Ask HN: Why can't we stop hurricanes?

#27

Should we stop hurricanes, even if we can? Yes, hurricanes are destructive, especially to human settlements, but I'd be surprised if there aren't massive ecological benefits to hurricanes in spite of (or possibly because of) the destruction. Forest fires, for example, have well-documented, long-term ecological benefits. Unfortunately it looks like hurricanes aren't studied as much as forest fires. Just doing some cur…

All these things could have beneficial ecological purposes...IN moderation... but what happens when they go to extremes ala Climate Change.. when we have 15 cat 5 hurricanes per year..or burn 10 million acres of forest per year...etc..

How much of our current excelling weather patterns are a result of global warming? All interesting questions...

Re: Ask HN: Why can't we stop hurricanes?

#28
post #23

How can we stop hurricanes? First, accept that climate change is real. Second, act on it. Year after year the global temperature increases and year after year the hurricanes get stronger. All real climate scientists will tell you there's a correlation.

Where do I start with this? I have no issue with climate change being real. Anyone with a modicum of sense can make those observations? However, your second point requires you to believe in the "dogma" of only anthropogenic causes for this climate change. At this point in time, we have no clue (and I mean no clue, irrespective of what any "real" climate scientist might pontificate) about the extent of actual causes o…

Check out oldandtireds infallible series of calculations at realclimatechange.geocities.com

Re: Ask HN: Why can't we stop hurricanes?

#29
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where do I start with this? I have no issue with climate change being real. Anyone with a modicum of sense can make those observations? However, your second point requires you to believe in the "dogma" of only anthropogenic causes for this climate change. At this point in time, we have no clue (and I mean no clue, irrespective of what any "real" climate scientist might pontificate) about the extent of actual causes o…

Check out oldandtireds infallible series of calculations at realclimatechange.geocities.com

Funny, ha ha.

If you actually took the time, about 2 to 3 hours of work and research, you would quickly see that the various scenarios proposed by these "real" climate scientists are a load of codswallop. As they say here at times, "Are you smarter than a fifth grader?" Well a fifth grader can do the calculations with but a little bit of help. If climate scientists were willing to call out their colleagues over the various "unreasonable" scenario results then as a group, I might be more inclined to give them a pass. But they don't, so no.

But so far, I have only had one person on the "anthropogenic" climate change bandwagon who was willing to give it a go. To his merit and credit, he even tried to provide a number of research studies to back his claim (he was not a climate scientist and the papers he referenced are well worth reading). In the end we agreed to disagree on our interpretations of the data presented. He was much more clear and critical thinking than the various "real" climate scientists that I have communicated with over the last two decades.

I have, over the course of nearly forty years, dealt with quite different computer simulations and models and it is so easy to get them wrong, to the extent that for some models, no matter what you put in, you appear to get a reasonable answer out. They're the scary ones, people assume they are right when in fact they are a load of rubbish.

If you were to actually try to do the energy equations, you would see this for yourself. But obviously, you more interested in believing the anthropogenic climate change dogma without at least some level of fact checking to test the veracity of the claims. But that is up to you. We can compare notes after you do your own calculations. Let me know when you have done them.

I am willing to give them a pass (or least a provisional move ahead) if they can clearly show that the basic energy calculations I have made that are required for their scenario outcomes are wrong in any significant way. That is, the calculations are wrong by say 15 orders of magnitude or more.

Average worldwide temperature rises of a couple of degrees (Celsius or Fahrenheit) do not appear to be able to supply enough energy to drive the energy requirements. If they were, then these "real" climate scientists would have been able to demonstrate this long before now. There would be an energy process and pathway available to demonstrate this to all who wanted to see it.

As a number of people here have already shown, the amounts of energy required for some of the existing events are just extraordinary. However, the energy required to drive them is many orders of magnitude short of the energy required to drive the scenario outcomes from the climate change models. This is a problem.

Climate is a multivariate function of a very large number of interacting processes. From the variations of solar output, the orbital position of the planet around the sun, the axial tilt of the planet, position of the moon, cloud cover, global land mass and water distributions, wind processes, storms (from little rainbursts up to the likes of Irma), volcanoes (land based, ocean based, ice based), forest fires (which you are getting right now), ground cover or lack of it, flooding, oceanic algae distribution to a myriad of other interacting effects and variables. To attribute climate change to anthropogenic effects as the main driver is, well, unreasonable without extraordinary evidence. Computer models that don't give reasonable, verifiable predictions are not evidence, no matter how distinguished the climate scientist may be.

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