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Ask HN: Predictions on what will be the most surprising technology in 10 years?

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21–30 of 70 posts

Re: Ask HN: Predictions on what will be the most surprising technology in 10 years?

#21
post #7

New materials. The search space in materials science is so impossibly huge that it's an endless source of surprises. The last ceramics hype cycle was about 20 years ago, so we're due for another one. Maybe room-temperature ceramic superconductors?

I'm biased as I studied MSE but I think this is the best one. All the other answers - electric cars, AI, robotics, etc. - are already dominating headlines; they aren't surprising. A new material could be very surprising. This is a common saying in materials science - notice how the major ages of human development (bronze age, iron age, even arguably the silicon age) are named after materials? Who would have predicted them before they occurred?

Unfortunately, from my experience, the turnaround from finding an innovative new material to actually using it in real products is absurdly long.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions on what will be the most surprising technology in 10 years?

#22
Some sort of inexpensive, portable neuro-imaging device could be huge. It would allow us to interact with technology almost seamlessly, and solve a lot of problems. If it becomes ubiquitous, it also solves almost all out security problems. Brain-based biometrics that work by measuring your brain activity while you look at a particular image. Unlike other biometrics, it's easily cancelable and extremely secure. You can change your "password" by selecting a different image.

It would also grant us the ability to much more effectively monitor our mental state. I bet it could be extremely helpful in combating anxiety and promoting mindfulness.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions on what will be the most surprising technology in 10 years?

#25
post #8

Solar power, wireless service, remote working and transportation advances might change where we live. You can have a house powered by the sun without an electric grid, connect to LTE+++ with 100gbps, work remotely, and have food automatically delivered with self-driving trucks or drones. You could live anywhere you'd want.

I like the way you think. That would be my dream. Time to start investing in property out in the middle of nowhere.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions on what will be the most surprising technology in 10 years?

#26
First, the negatives:

   Another AI winter
   Another VR winter
   Another hype-cycle of home automation
   Another hype-cycle of growing teeth
There will be tech progress, but behind the scenes, doing the same things as before, just better. As prosaic as more modular manufactured goods, in the sense of prefab home construction, automobile components, FPGA's for electronic goods. Some may revolutionize the value-chain in an industry - but you won't see it unless you're in it.

Fundamentally new tech takes 20-30 years to come to market - especially if it really does change things (government regulatory regimes, infrastructure, how we live).

Now Moore's Law isn't giving us shallow victories any more, there is opportunity for deeper changes, that properly absorb and apply its past advances.

Right now, we are undergoing a re-orientation of our political systems, in the sense of how democracy operates without a traditional press; the continuing march of multi-nationals being more powerful than sovereign states; the hyper-concentration of wealth (due to the means of production no longer being land, nor labour, but technology). Social systems are a kind of "technology".

The central question of this technological change will be: why do the hyper-wealthy need people?

The most surprising technology will be new mathematics - not TB machine proofs, but quite simple and basic ones, akin to the positional number system, algebra, calculus. They will analyse complex systems, like Navier-Stokes fluid dynamics; the operation of deep learning networks; internet and traffic congestion; and cortical organization. They won't give magical results, but they will offer a new point of view, that some will experience as magical.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions on what will be the most surprising technology in 10 years?

#27
One of my predictions is that the AI pendulum will swing again at the other direction and people will wake up again to the reality that AI is far from achieving the romanticised stuff that the so called experts and book authors want the public to believe.

We will see gradual incremental improvement in specialised AIs for things like voice, face and character recognition. We will see an increased usage of AI and AI based technologies to improve efficiency and assist the humans in decision making. But it will not put nearly as many people out of jobs as some people suggest.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions on what will be the most surprising technology in 10 years?

#29
VR. Next two years are going to be pretty stagnant. The resolutions, etc. just are still enthusiast tier.

But 10 years time? We could be seeing the beginning of the end of TVs, smartphones, cinema, social media, etc. as we know it today. VR arcade warehouses popping up in many places. Perhaps even starting to impact the layouts of newly architected houses to have less walls, focus more on wide one-story dwellings (but stacked on top of each other) and more open space to roam wide in virtual reality.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions on what will be the most surprising technology in 10 years?

#30
post #8

Solar power, wireless service, remote working and transportation advances might change where we live. You can have a house powered by the sun without an electric grid, connect to LTE+++ with 100gbps, work remotely, and have food automatically delivered with self-driving trucks or drones. You could live anywhere you'd want.

I like the way you think. That would be my dream. Time to start investing in property out in the middle of nowhere.

With the way population is growing, owning land anywhere (that's not going to be swallowed by the sea) sounds like a good idea to me. If you have some disposable income and don't mind a possibly long wait (and the taxes too), I'd say go for it.
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