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Ask HN: Is anyone else bearish on OpenAI?

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191–200 of 321 posts

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else bearish on OpenAI?

#191
> What am I missing here?

> I just don't see this company (or any others for that matter) GPTing their way to AGI

> I'm not saying the company will go bankrupt but I'm also not buying into the hype that it's going to become the next Google or better / create AGI for us all.

What I'm missing is the connection between AGI & profitability. OpenAI has huge revenues from ChatGPT which look set to continue - they're distinct from cryptocurrency in that those invested in them are so on a service provision basis rather than a speculation basis.

I'm thoroughly unconvinced we'll ever see AGI - I see zero connection between that and OpenAI being successful.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else bearish on OpenAI?

#192

> What am I missing here? > I just don't see this company (or any others for that matter) GPTing their way to AGI > I'm not saying the company will go bankrupt but I'm also not buying into the hype that it's going to become the next Google or better / create AGI for us all. What I'm missing is the connection between AGI & profitability. OpenAI has huge revenues from ChatGPT which look set to continue - they're distin…

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Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else bearish on OpenAI?

#193
What I'm seeing in this thread is that OpenAI is actually diminishing the appetite for AGI, or muddying the waters in terms of what AGI even means. Most of the commenters here, as knowledge workers, should be well aware of the value real AGI would bring to the table (assuming, of course, that it is more cost effective than hiring a real human -- even if it's quite cheap, humans may be cheaper in some parts of the world -- not that I condone such inequity).

Nevertheless, regardless of whether OpenAI is close to AGI (I don't think so) or what value LLMs bring to the table (definitely non-zero), the problem is that LLMs are being increasingly commoditized and no one has a real moat here. I think that's why these firms are so desperate to kickstart regulations and are trying so hard to somehow pull the ladder up behind them.

OpenAIs fears don't come from "no one understands LLMs", but rather, that too many people do, and that large models have already fallen into the hands of the community who can do more with it in a week than OpenAI can hope to do in a year. Ever larger models might be out of the reach of the public, but real world value is more likely to come from a well prepared, smaller model (cf. vicuna) that doesn't cost an arm and a leg to run inference with -- and building these is cheaper than most might think.

If I had to point to a company and call it as a market leader here, I would point to Meta, not OpenAI. Meta has a huge workforce working for free on its model, after all, and they have made progress at a rate that bigtech cannot match in their wildest dreams.

There are also far too many eyeballs on this, in my opinion. For a company to truly dominate a market it needs a bit of air cover for a while building what will eventually be its moat.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else bearish on OpenAI?

#194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> OpenAI, at least in my day-day workflow for the last 9+ months has so superseded anything that google ever was to me that I'm having a difficult time comparing the two. Seconded. Let me tell you what I used to do. First, Imagine I have an error executing code or an error running some bit of 3rd party software. I go to Stack Overflow and search. I find posts related to my problem and I spend a great deal of time try…

As a non-professional coder, I'm honestly surprised there seems quite a few professional coders in this thread who don't do the first Stackoverflow first scenario. As someone learning code, shoehorning SO code when I don't understand 20% of the replies made the learning curve so steep, chatGPT has made this so much easier by changing it and telling me why will/won't work, even when watching out for or correcting hall…

You’re surprised most professionals would want to actually try and diagnose a problem instead of trying to copy and paste a shoehorned solution? What? Most professionals I work with actually try to debug code, look at docs, etc. You know, research, like a real job.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else bearish on OpenAI?

#195
post #150
post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hm, my wife uses it daily for her classes which aren't tech related. She describes it as a very patient professor who meets her where she is at and doesn't judge. English isn't her first language too and sometimes she can ask what a term means in English.

> English isn't her first language too and sometimes she can ask what a term means in English. That’s a good example of a subpar use for an LLM. Dictionaries have existed since before computers. Digital dictionaries are faster, more reliable, and less power consuming than any LLM.

Dictionaries can’t give you contextual answers, clarify use in a sentence, or explain why you’re using it wrong.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else bearish on OpenAI?

#197
post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> to be almost universally loved by programmers If AI-generated code is considered acceptable in your project then you aren't using a powerful-enough programming language. And you're paying the cost in code bloat. How many Coq programmers find ChatGPT useful? How many nontrivial Coq programs written (and not merely memorized) by ChatGPT even pass type checking ? If you're considering AI-written code then you have a b…

How many Coq programmers 'anything', tho?

grammar harder

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else bearish on OpenAI?

#198
post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not that I'm trying to change your mind, but some specific things that LLMs do for me: - Helping to refactor SQL - writing jq commands (I simply cannot) - writing shell code (it happens just infrequently enough that I can't justify spending the time to get good) - brainstorming names or puns. Word association is easier with a second person (or an LLM) - figuring out why my AWS CLI commands aren't doing what I'm expec…

This is just helping out with trivial tasks, which sounds very much in scope of LLMs. The OP was talking about replacing "world class consultants", which I'm very sceptical of.

I use it almost exclusively to help me approach novel problems, or at least problem spaces that I am severely lacking expertise in. It’s pretty incredible for helping me leverage my extant programming knowledge to accomplish things that I couldn’t before due to being blocked by research.

I’ve also used it quite a lot for advice as I was learning project management and moving away from individual contributions.

So I think as a consultant it has value, though I think “world class” might be a bit hyperbolic, since I still need to validate its output.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else bearish on OpenAI?

#199
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you using 3.5 or 4? And what kind of things are you trying to do ? It's not like asking it, copy + pasting results + paste errors loop takes a long time to validate if it works or not. Even when it doesn't work it saves me time vs google-ing and also not solving my problem. Or gives me insights.

In all honesty I've only been using InstantClaude so far due to the larger context window being something I'd want down the line. What should I be using in your opinion to get the best results? Examples I can think of where it gave wrong info was: - I asked to compare the size of the MacBook m1 and the 16" framework laptops - I asked how to add the nixpgs-unstable channel in NixOS. - I asked to help write a power she…

It's incredible to me that so many people still don't realize that GPT-4 is a completely different level from other LLMs.

It's like if an alien visited and the first place they went was to a convention for Special Needs people and then they decided that humans were too stupid to talk to. Or rather, there was a Mensa convention next door with a $20 entrance fee and they figured it wasn't worth it.

Or rather, for $20 everyone at the Mensa convention agreed to log in to a special app and wait 24/7 for any time you have a question. Then they would instantly select the most knowledgeable among them in that subject and immediately enter a reply incredibly quickly.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else bearish on OpenAI?

#200
post #67
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you able to give a specific example of a problem it helped you solve? Especially one that you were at a complete blocking point, it provided some solution, and then you were able to continue to expand upon that solution. I keep reading responses like yours, but I haven't seen any specific examples of problems being solved, so it all sounds very abstract. In my interactions with ChatGPT, it felt like just interact…

I think this speaks to the bubble you're in and how your kind of software development probably represents 0.1% of what's out there. I don't even know what WebGPU, Warren Abstract machine or "whatever is that you're trying to do" is. I've been doing dev for ~20 years now, most of the work out there is essentially plumbing events/databases/REST APIs/regexes/JSON/configs/ web UIs in existing and well established framewo…

The parent comment claimed they had the value of 15-20 high priced world class consultants from every field, but this makes it seem like it does only the most basic common tasks.
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