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Ask HN: Problems for the next decade?

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Re: Ask HN: Problems for the next decade?

#191

Post by reducesuffering »

TheFreim wrote: post #179
xerxesaa wrote: post #2

We have an aging population and many places have a flat birthrate. We need to solve how to deal with this consequences. Who will care for these people? How will we deal with the consequences of flat population growth? How will we deal with the stock market's expectations of perpetual growth when the underlying population itself is not growing (and especially since productivity has also been relatively flat)?

> We need to solve how to deal with this consequences. I'm hoping that we start to see an increase in pro-family policies. A couple rough ideas to look into would be decreasing taxation (or giving refunds/payments) based on how many children a productive family has, providing financial support so families can buy homes, and promoting wage increases so a single income can support a family to allow one to work and the…

> providing financial support so families can buy homes

You mean building more homes. If there's X homes, and Y families get 10% subsidy, they're all still buying the same X homes for 10% more. (roughly)

Re: Ask HN: Problems for the next decade?

#192

Post by reducesuffering »

mikewarot wrote: post #81

Unpopular opinion: One of the biggest challenges facing humanity in the next 2 decades is avoiding a catastrophic "Great Simplification" as we run out of oil. If this were allowed to happen, we'd suddenly be unable to practice industrial scale agriculture, and I'd estimate 90% of humanity would starve to death. The US produces large amounts of oil via fracking, which requires more resources to drill and produce than…

The globe is absolutely nowhere near facing dwindling oil supplies in 2 decades. We won't even hit our proven reserves in that time, and companies frequently spend $ to find more reserves on an as-needed basis. Current usage trajectory of oil is roughly a century. Oil's problem is the CO2 emissions causing climate change.

proven reserves/consumption = 47 years left

https://www.worldometers.info/oil/

Re: Ask HN: Problems for the next decade?

#193

Post by jacknews »

palata wrote: post #165
sdwr wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

15 years ago, solar and wind looked stupid expensive compared to fossil fuels.

Don't forget that solar and wind today are still heavily relying on fossil fuels. So they get better in a world where we have abundant fossil fuels. And still their contribution today to our energy needs is marginal.

It's a tautological argument: The current energy mix is 90% fossil, it takes energy to make solar panels, therefore solar panels are made of 90% fossil.

Re: Ask HN: Problems for the next decade?

#194

Post by Madmallard »

habitue wrote: post #183

Actually unpopular opinion: Existential risk from AI. I think people think "AI is overhyped" etc, but there is a difference between there being too many low value AI startups right now (a bubble) and whether a few top labs will produce an AI that threatens humanity. Even if it's a ten percent chance, it's a huge problem that we need to address.

That's not what's going to happen.

Re: Ask HN: Problems for the next decade?

#195

Post by Rury »

alexvoda wrote: post #41
tomp wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

While communism does have it's flaws, i would argue it has in fact never been tried.

Look, I think communism sounds great, but the problem is that it simply doesn't work in practice. In other words, it has been tried, it just doesn't work.

To see why, you can categorize the forms of government as so:

    - Monarchy/Dictatorship: Power in the hands of one, one person is authority
    - Oligarchy/Republic: Power in the hands of a few, aristocrats are authority
    - Democracy: Power in the hands of many, majority is authority
    - Communism/Anarchy: Power in everyone's hands, everyone is equal in authority
In reality, society only works when there's a power hierarchy; it's the natural order of things. The more you equally distribute power amongst people, the more dysfunctional/less orderly/more bureaucratic society becomes.

In particular, notice all the forms of government (except for communism) has a way to settle disputes without resorting to violence. For example, in Democracy, you settle disputes by voting, where the majority wins, and the rest don't get their way. This ability to settle disputes without violence, is what makes us civil and what makes society a society. Without it (such as with communism), you are in complete anarchy, where raw might/ability (eg successful violence/persuasion) is the only thing there is left to settle disputes. Thus, those who wield it typically end up becoming the "authority", and is why over time, communism/anarchy will naturally change into one of the other forms of government.

Re: Ask HN: Problems for the next decade?

#196

Post by TheFreim »

reducesuffering wrote: post #191
TheFreim wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We need to solve how to deal with this consequences. I'm hoping that we start to see an increase in pro-family policies. A couple rough ideas to look into would be decreasing taxation (or giving refunds/payments) based on how many children a productive family has, providing financial support so families can buy homes, and promoting wage increases so a single income can support a family to allow one to work and the…

> providing financial support so families can buy homes You mean building more homes. If there's X homes, and Y families get 10% subsidy, they're all still buying the same X homes for 10% more. (roughly)

Not mutually exclusive. More homes + making it easier for families specifically to get a home.

Re: Ask HN: Problems for the next decade?

#197

Post by pixl97 »

nine_k wrote: post #155
defrost wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Small Is Beautiful: A Study of Economics As If People Mattered is a collection of essays published in 1973 by German-born British economist E. F. Schumacher. The title *Small Is Beautiful* came from a principle espoused by Schumacher's teacher Leopold Kohr (1909–1994) advancing small, appropriate technologies, policies, and polities as a superior alternative to the mainstream ethos of "bigger is better". Overlapping…

This seems somehow unrelated. It's not about scale, it's about balance. You can run a small an beautiful country with zero economy growth and zero decline, all in a perfect balance, and 70% of population younger than 65. Everything works out. But when 50% of the population is older than 60, the picture changes a lot; the percentage of economically productive population is much lower, and the need to care for people w…

We'll we're going to have to learn how to deal with it.

At the start of the 1900s the world was set for a population boom and overshoot. We went from families having 6-12 children to 2ish children in a few generations. This is going to lead to those 'boom' generations having a far older population and there is not really anything that can be done about this unless you want your population to continue growing forever.

Re: Ask HN: Problems for the next decade?

#198

Post by defrost »

nine_k wrote: post #155
defrost wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Small Is Beautiful: A Study of Economics As If People Mattered is a collection of essays published in 1973 by German-born British economist E. F. Schumacher. The title *Small Is Beautiful* came from a principle espoused by Schumacher's teacher Leopold Kohr (1909–1994) advancing small, appropriate technologies, policies, and polities as a superior alternative to the mainstream ethos of "bigger is better". Overlapping…

This seems somehow unrelated. It's not about scale, it's about balance. You can run a small an beautiful country with zero economy growth and zero decline, all in a perfect balance, and 70% of population younger than 65. Everything works out. But when 50% of the population is older than 60, the picture changes a lot; the percentage of economically productive population is much lower, and the need to care for people w…

Fair point, in hindsight it seems I may have thrown this book recommendation in under the wrong comment.

It's relavant to this Ask HN question at large as we very much need to move away from blind pursuit of unlimited growth in population, resource consumption, waste byproducts, etc. and address the question of how to live well within our means.

Aging population demographics is a challenge, but one that we must address and then move beyond to a move persistent and sustainable low term distribution.

As for the current situation, I am 60, my father was born in 1935 and lives here in the same town as I do. He takes meals on wheels to the older folks who aren't all that mobile (yes, he's almost 88, walks 10km per day, and maintains a 15 km long section of a 1,000 km long walking trail) which is indicative of the entire community which has the highest median age in this country.

There is scope to employ able older people to look after less able older people which gives provides purpose, companionship, and reduces the demand for younger pople in care roles, etc.

This is not a full solution but it is a partial path forward.

Re: Ask HN: Problems for the next decade?

#199

Post by daskapitalism »

satvikpendem wrote: post #153
kerkeslager wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Capitalism has been tried more times than communism and has failed to reward productive people more times. It's 2023. The absurd idea that, for example, the billionaires pushing the Metaverse or burning Twitter to the ground got there by being productive, is thoroughly disproven. Stop pushing this motivated ideology.

Capitalism has lifted billions out of poverty. Even China, who is communist in name, only started experiencing high economic growth once Deng Xiao Ping started reforming the state to be more market oriented, ie capitalism-lite.

I would love for capitalism to stop being treated like a child with all these monetary policies, interests rate massage, bank bailouts, etc. Ludwig Von Mises was right about the business cycle. Hands off the free market dammit!

Re: Ask HN: Problems for the next decade?

#200

Post by satvikpendem »

daskapitalism wrote: post #199
satvikpendem wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Capitalism has lifted billions out of poverty. Even China, who is communist in name, only started experiencing high economic growth once Deng Xiao Ping started reforming the state to be more market oriented, ie capitalism-lite.

I would love for capitalism to stop being treated like a child with all these monetary policies, interests rate massage, bank bailouts, etc. Ludwig Von Mises was right about the business cycle. Hands off the free market dammit!

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