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Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

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Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#191
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did anyone actually buy NFTs or was it just a bunch of people saying "this is worth X"?

It was the perfecting money laundering vehicle. "I made a picture of an ape and 'some random anonymous person' bought it for $1M!"

I always assume it was that, speculators and ridiculously rich folks making impulse buys.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#192

I have been sitting on cash since end of last year, I am finally seeing opportunities to buy at reasonable price: stocks and crypto. Stocks, cryptos, houses: people kept buying no matter the price, even though, it was so obvious that those prices were not sustainable. And we are finally seeing a proper correction. I think, houses are next in line.

> I have been sitting on cash since end of last year,

How do you feel about the recent spick in inflation? I have also been sitting on some cash for a year, and its buying power has definitely fallen. I find it now hard to see if prices will fall or wags will go up, so the cash I have will be of less relative worth.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#194
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As soon as it was clear that Bitcoin was going to be a commodity instead of a currency (why use it as a currency to buy a pizza this week when it could buy you a car next week?), it was clear it was now a pyramid scheme. That's why I didn't invest in it. What I hadn't counted on was how gullible people were for pyramid schemes.

I wish we had a better phrase than "pyramid scheme", because IMO anything that's a "scheme" has people who know better at one end, and I really don't think there's anyone involved in crypto that is deliberately "winning". What's a phrase for when everyone is getting scammed, and not by any one person, but by an idea? Where there are no winners, only lucky and unlucky. Pyramid trap? Pyramid quagmire? IDK, but "scheme"…

A fad basically, fits the dictionary definition pretty well IMO.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#196

Crypto and other speculative assets are reasonable investments when inflation and interest rates are low - this allows toleration of high risk profiles. When inflation/interest rates rise, theres generally a cash exodus to safer assets. Monetary policy for the past decade has made it "reasonable" to take a much more risky portfolio stance, that situation has changed, and everyone is realizing it at about the same tim…

I am inclined to disagree on the reasonable part, I have a feeling that the difference between cryptocurrencies and say stocks or commodities is a difference in kind not a difference in degree. Sure when there is risk appetite again cryptocurrencies will rebound along with other risky instruments. But I just can't shake the feeling that cryptocurrencies in general is just a huge pyramid scheme.

Fair enough - I'm using reasonable here to represent the balance of "this is a very risky asset" vs "inflation is low so I can hold onto this for a long time and wait for the right time to sell".

Theres also just an insane amount of hype about crypto is the future of , and therefore it's valuable in the future. Amazon made no profits for so long because all dollars were reinvested into the business. Crypto made no dollars because it's as useful as a beanie baby.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#197
post #79

I would actually prefer for it to continue seeing how many scammers pivoted to crypto. I hadn't had a question from my mother about the legitimacy of the spam she's getting in months. Also, from all this drama, a whole culture emerged: https://youtu.be/5-h_-OuGMnE

Remember, only recently were there "blockchain courses" being offered as minted NFT's... I'm stunned it took hucksters that long to dream up that means of grifting.

I briefly did some side-work for a web3 company and honestly at this point product people / people who don't know any better are the most obnoxious in the space.

By far, the most obnoxious are the people who happened to have a ton of BTC and then decided they were smart enough to start VC funds with the capital. RIP to anyone who agreed to a comp package that included a $COIN.

I'm still holding BTC, ETH and LPT though. I really like that LivePeer is solving a real problem - however it's also absolutely tanked in value.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#198
post #98

I feel bad for people losing money, but crypto has not lived up to its potential at all, remains a solution looking for a problem, and is an environmental disaster. I used to be a huge believer. Brian Armstrong gave me my first Bitcoin in 2011 at District in SOMA. Electricity was included in my rent so I bought 10 video cards and mined for about two years on 5 systems. At a company I founded, I use Bitcoin to pay for…

Do you know of any other way to send electronic cash with no intermediaries (EDIT: financial institutions)? It's the first sentence of the whitepaper and ignored by 99% of people, including highly paid software developers.

Whether or not you need that will depend on where the world goes. A CDBC social-credit system world presents a lot of incentives to use something else.

And if you do need it, you need it ahead of time. Good luck trying to learn and set up networks from scratch when they are considered illegal etc.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#199
post #175

It's a Macro crash. SP500 is down -%5 YTD. Meta -37%, Netflix -65%. Lots of pain spreading. You shouldn't gloat or be happy. Give it a couple of more months like this, and lots of the HN audience would be worried about layoffs. The security of your average software developer job is strongly tied to market cycles. If you want a place to direct your hate and bitterness, I would do it at the architects of the BOOM/BUSTS…

Exactly. Direct your hate to the fed who is manipulating the market and toying with people's livelihoods.

No one is every happy with the fed - they lower interest rates: they're encouraging inflation and de-valuing the dollar. They raise interest rates: they're toying with people's livelihoods. What is the correct action to take, in your opinion?

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't understand what a commodity is - or you don't understand what Bitcoin is.

Ah the classic coiner refrain. Thanks bud. We do. We really, really do. We've spent many years learning exactly what those things are thanks to all this insufferable nonsense. I know more about crypto than practically 90% of the crypto community. I know all the personalities, the history, the fraud, the crime, the grift. I've read countless whitepapers. I've learned about 'traditional' finance. All because of the bri…

While I dislike the coiners' "oh, you just don't get it" as much as you, I think a more charitable interpretation of GP is possible that rests on the fact that there are two interpretations of the word "commodity":

1. something (usually raw material or primary good) that can be bought and sold - Bitcoin sort of fits that definition.

2. something (usually raw material or primary good) that can be processed to produce something useful. Bitcoin is not a commodity in that sense, which might be what GP was trying to highlight.

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