I don't know if anyone is still following this post but does anyone know if there are studies around the cost in lives of the shutdown itself? I recall reading somewhere that every 1% of unemployment equaled some number of additional deaths per year. Does anyone know of a study of the human cost of a shutdown vs. the virus itself ?
Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?
191–200 of 211 posts
Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?
#192The South Korean model: 1. Build up testing and contact tracing capabilities. 2. Massive mask making, everyone required to wear a mask in public. 3. Hospitals reconfigured to deal with covid patients. People can then go outside and mingle again.
What kind of masks are effective? The one I have seems weird, I just feel the water vapour touching my eyes when I exhale. I guess the mask would block the sneeze/cough projectiles and small spits while talking but if I were sitting in the public transit the water vapour would float around.
I don't know the names just that there are 2 variants. One which is cheap and one which is expensive. The cheap one does not protect you but shall protect others if you've got the virus. The expensive one shall protect you but you cannot wear it for long because it's hard to breath with it. That's what was said in germany from official site a week ago or so. May be outdated now. I Think they also said that you can get infected through eyes.. So a mask MAY not be enough at all
Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?
#193It's your typical pandemic response: - denial - placating measures - minor lockdowns - major lockdowns and panic (running to the store to stockpile toilet paper, for some reason) - total quarantine - life slowly returns to normal China is now on the final stage (restaurants and stores reopening, etc), with the rest of the world between 2 and 3 months behind. Most people are unable to comprehend exponential growth, so…
And those who don't understand, or need a refresher on, exponential growth should watch this great video by 3Blue1Brown. Exponential growth and epidemics: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg
While not specifically about the exponential growth of pandemics I've always liked the lecture "Exponential Growth, Population and Energy" by Dr. Albert Bartlett.
Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?
#194The commonly stated goal of lockdowns is to slow the spread, flatten the (new cases vs time) curve, and thereby try to manage the rate of new cases so hospital resources (ICU beds, respirators, nursing staff) arn't overwhelmed.
Once (whenever that may be) the curve is shown to be flattening and hostpitals are in control, it'd be logical to see some gradual loosening of the restrictions that are currently being ramped up.
I personally doubt that loosening of restrictions, once above conditions are met, will be contingent on a proven and widely available vaccine having been developed (not least because there's no guarantee that one ever will be).
At this point it's anyone's guess how long it'll be in any given country until things appear to be more under control... Even in South Korea, who seem to have done best job in containing this, I've yet to see any estimates of how long it'll take at current rates on infection for the majority of the population to get it and/or get to "herd immunity" point.
In the US all bets are off.. it seems we were (and still are) extraordinarily slow to recognize the severity of this and take appropriate actions (severe lockdowns, widespread testing and resulting case tracking), so a reasonable expectation is that we may be following the case trajectories of the harder hit countries, with similar measures as they have in place coming to the US.
Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?
#195Earlier quoted context omitted.
Please don't sink to this regardless of how bad another comment is. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
Not clear what I sank to. Was yammering too far? What guideline are you directing me to? I feel that calling out this repugnant behavior is more that acceptable.
The comment sank to personal attack and name-calling. We want thoughtful, curious discussion here. The online calling-out and shaming culture doesn't fit with that, so please don't practice those internet arts on HN.
Your previous comment was similar: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22538238. That's another example of what not to do on HN. Your more recent comment, though, is great: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22605788. That's simple and factual.
Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?
#196Earlier quoted context omitted.
His tone was out of place but I don't see any xenophobia in his comment? Is it not ok to criticize China? China really did made huge mistakes early on. And there has been a lot of criticism towards the EU and the US too.
If the OP comment was the second half yours there wouldn't be an issue, but it wasn't, it was a simple racist screed scrawled upon a forum that I go to for useful information and substantive opinions.
I've spent many, many hours telling HN commenters not to cross into nationalistic hostility, especially about China in recent years. But it's important to be precise with language if you're going to argue for tolerance. If you call a comment like the GP one racist, you'll only alienate readers who read the comment and don't see racism there. The comment contains plenty of other material that makes it a bad comment for HN.
Internet commenters are much too quick to factor into camps and tribes and then use extra-intense labels ("racism" in this case) to denounce each other. This appeals only to the side that already agrees with you, and leads to a downward spiral in which each side keeps escalating and the rest of the audience just feels alienated and starts wishing for some other place. That path leads to HN no longer being a forum for useful information and substantive comments, so we all need to take a different path.
Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?
#197Earlier quoted context omitted.
Well, in Brazil it's officially known that there has been domestic transmission in both São Paulo (that has been cold, much like a summer in North Europe) and Rio de Janeiro (that has been quite hot on the last few days).
More humid there, easier for microorganism travel.
Fist off, its a virus not a microorganism. Second, high humidity reduces the spread of viruses. That is why you get the common cold more often in winter, when it is very dry.
Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?
#198Earlier quoted context omitted.
I saw a statistical analysis of the flatten the curve idea but assuming we couldn't ramp up the number of intensive care beds, it took 3600 days to fit everyone in under the "available health care" line. It's still a good strategy for right now because it gives us some extra time to ramp testing and healthcare up.
Was this the article you were reading with the 3600 days analysis? I just read it. Not sure what to make of it yet. https://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-dea...
That is the article ... I don't think it had the "My back-of-the-envelope calculation is not a proper simulation, or a good model of what’s going on either. Don’t cite it as such" part at the bottom when I read it a couple days ago though.
Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?
#199Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?
#200Earlier quoted context omitted.
I haven't seen any statistics, but it appears that Rita Wilson and her husband contracted it in Australia from what I've read. That was the more worrying thing to me about that news than the celebrity connection.
Two global travelers with frequent contact to other global travelers doesn't prove much.
It's anecdata for sure. Apparently though, at least one TV reporter contracted the virus after being in contact with Rita Wilson. Again, anecdata, but it points towards the idea that there is local transmission.