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Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

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Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#181

Post by everfrustrated »

AI will cause the value of knowledge to plummet. This will be felt particularly by universities - graduates will be valued to near zero by business. Elite universities will continue to do well but the value there becomes elitism and social status (this has been apparent for a long while already).

Value of experience will grow - compounding this will be less opportunity for junior people to get that experience so they will be increasingly (and rightly) frustrated.

The opportunities to have a successful career as a salaried employee decline significantly - people are pushed to start small businesses out of necessity - and this barrier is lower due to AI.

A flurry of new dev tooling companies start up re-packaging software development processes and concepts into a more user friendly package that allows software development to go even more mainstream to accommodate this.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#182

Post by johnwheeler »

DANmode wrote: post #142
johnwheeler wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To me, this is wishful thinking. The more I see these "our jobs are safe" claims, the more I fear our jobs are not safe, and people are just trying to convince themselves which is an indicator of turmoil ahead.

Who is “our”?

Tech folk. Anyone really.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#183

Post by johnwheeler »

Imustaskforhelp wrote: post #133
johnwheeler wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's like Penn and Teller say: "Everyone thinks the world is getting worse, but it's always getting better." I hope you're right. Maybe it's just my age creeping up on me and turning me into a cynic. Anyway, good to know there's still people who think positively.

I think I am young but I do feel like we base our expectations of 2026 from 2025 which lets admit, was not good. I do not think that there would be sudden change from 2025 -> 2026 that could fundamentally change reality if the fundamentals stay the same which in my opinion they kinda would. I do feel like 2026 would be like 2025 but just a little better maybe or little worse.

Yes, I agree with this sentiment. A little better or a little worse, hopefully not too bad. But I think the same feeling of dread will persist, especially going into 2027, particularly around artificial intelligence for tech workers. My concern is that the switch won't be gradual. One day someone will come out with a model that can do everything valuable this software engineer can do. Claude code 4.5 almost hits that mark for me. In a year, I can't imagine…

It might not be AGI, it might not be able to do everything everyone could do, but it'll be enough that you can fire most of the people on your team and just use a few to guide the AI. And I think that's gonna tighten things up in the job market even more. Hopefully it leads to more job creation and it empowers people to compete with one another based on taste and individuals to compete with organizations. That's the best-case scenario I see.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#184

Post by johnwheeler »

cons0le wrote: post #83
johnwheeler wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Donald Trump because he made a bet is my guess.

It's not for a bet. The presents are just for celebration. You could call it an expression of joy

To each their own. I can definitely understand that sentiment, although I'm 46 years old, and I've turned more conservative over the last few years, I still really like Obama. I also like Trump, though. It's kind of weird. Don't want to start a flame war though, I respect your opinions.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#185

Post by OGEnthusiast »

johnwheeler wrote: post #182
DANmode wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who is “our”?

Tech folk. Anyone really.

What does "safe" mean? Unemployment in the US right now is under 5% which is historically very good (even though it's been slightly trending upwards over the past few months).

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#186

Post by nearlyepic »

DANmode wrote: post #149
nearlyepic wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Americans will get their first taste of extended range EVs (full EV powertrain with a tiny ICE that charges the battery) and they explode in popularity. This happened, it was called the Chevy Volt. Nobody bought it.

Horrific whitewashing of the story. Chevy made it about as fuckin’ unattractive as they could manage, AND THEY WERE STILL GREAT CARS. You can buy them at the right price even today, and people have been adding range to them.

I totally agree that you can make the argument that people didn't buy them because they weren't sexy. Post-2008, new cars became luxury items almost exclusively. So given that, there's no reason they would catch on now unless somebody makes a sexy one.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#187

Post by johnwheeler »

OGEnthusiast wrote: post #185
johnwheeler wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tech folk. Anyone really.

What does "safe" mean? Unemployment in the US right now is under 5% which is historically very good (even though it's been slightly trending upwards over the past few months).

Employed. My contention is the AI is getting so good at doing tech related things that you'll need far fewer employees. I think Claude Code 4.5 is already there. Honestly, it just needs to permeate the market.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#188

Post by y0eswddl »

Sammi wrote: post #113
johnsmith1840 wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't get this take. My knowledge and engineering has only gone up over time. I read significantly more and higher quality technical information and need to debug problems significantly harder. I think AI will in general make everyone a lot smarter. Maybe the people who use AI as a companion will melt? I'm sure there's some kind of repetitive addiction loop that could melt your brain just like anythibg else though.

It's like saying in the 1970s that people would become dumber because of calculators. It's a tool. You can use it lazily and not learn much, or you use it actively as something that propels you further along in your learning.

no, its not - with calculators, it was up to the person using the tool to figure out which formula to use and which values to plug into the calculator.

The human has to have enough understanding of the problem to know which math to apply and calculate in the first place. That requires understanding and discernment. This works the brain. This mental work strengthens our problem solving ability.

Whereas with AI, you just tell it the problem and it gives an easy answer. Thus involving no further work from the human brain which causes it to atrophy just like any other underused muscle.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#189

Post by OGEnthusiast »

johnwheeler wrote: post #187
OGEnthusiast wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does "safe" mean? Unemployment in the US right now is under 5% which is historically very good (even though it's been slightly trending upwards over the past few months).

Employed. My contention is the AI is getting so good at doing tech related things that you'll need far fewer employees. I think Claude Code 4.5 is already there. Honestly, it just needs to permeate the market.

I agree that Claude Code is a lot more effective than I was expecting, but I don't think it can fully replace human software engineers, nor do I think it's on any trajectory to do so. It does make senior engineers a lot more productive so I could see it reducing some demand for new grad software engineers.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#190

Post by VoodooJuJu »

jawns wrote: post #37

I predict certain political factions in the US will spend much of 2026 looking for ways to introduce a delay in the 2028 elections, such as pursuing a war so that Congress can postpone elections until they can be held safely. Which has never happened before, but who knows what absurdities will be given the OK these days?

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