Note that this thread will have the same Danning-Kruger level of plausible but wrong info as would a banker forum discussing "do you think ChatGPT will be able to drive cars?".
Dunning-Kruger
Ask HN: Do you think this is the start of the new financial crisis?
181–190 of 226 posts
Re: Ask HN: Do you think this is the start of the new financial crisis?
#182Say it is a new financial crisis. What can we do to actually make a profit from it like all the established players are doing?
Re: Ask HN: Do you think this is the start of the new financial crisis?
#183It feels extremely similar. But this time we have had governments causing unemployment to curb inflation. So this crash could very well be much more severe than the 2008/09 one.
> But this time we have had governments causing unemployment to curb inflation. That’s true of most recessions, because by definition a recession is the period after a business cycle peak, and the peak of business cycles is when inflationary pressures are high and monetary policy tends to be tight to constrain inflation. It is definitely not a difference between today the 2007-2009 Great Recession where interest rate…
As I remember it the job market was doing well up until investments banks began failing in mid 2008. That is not the case today. Many large companies have already announced major job cuts. Because governments have announced that interest rates will remain high to increase unemployment. The idea is that more unemployment means more poverty and with people too poor to pay high prices producers will have to lower their prices thus curing inflation. Or so the theory goes.
Re: Ask HN: Do you think this is the start of the new financial crisis?
#184It’s probably worse since the 2007-9 era tech workers had the new iPhone coming out along with Facebook apps for high speed marketing. Nowadays the tech sector is saturated and home prices are barely coming down unlike in 2009 but mortgage rates are going up as well as apartment costs leading to a double whammy on housing costs.
But at least we have Uber and WFH.
Re: Ask HN: Do you think this is the start of the new financial crisis?
#185Earlier quoted context omitted.
Exactly. Economics likes to pretend it is a hard science because it has mathematics and formulas and hard numbers, but it's not. It is much closer with a social science, where work has either big assumptions or is much closer to a study about the market's behavior. But because economics has masqueraded as a science, we expect it to be more exact than it really is, and I think that dissonance can be quite impactful to…
Please. One look at Norway tells me this is malarky. If Norway can have such a stable economy and society, why can't the rest of the world? What have they figured out that has eluded everyone else?
I think 3dbrow's answer is the correct response, but would also like to say is that economics is much larger than just monetary and fiscal policies at a state level. This is one of the reasons that behavioral economics has flourished in recent years, to help push back against some of the underlying assumptions that don't match human nature.
It also looks like Norway's economy is also having some trouble during this time [0], like many other nations. And finally, we need to be careful comparing specific economies like Norway to other nation's economies. Each country's economy is different, and prescribing something that works in an oil-rich, northern European country will probably not work in other parts of the world.
[0]: https://www.ssb.no/en/nasjonalregnskap-og-konjunkturer/konju...
Interesting podcast about copying Nordic countries to make ourselves happier: https://freakonomics.com/podcast/season-10-episode-25/
Re: Ask HN: Do you think this is the start of the new financial crisis?
#186Earlier quoted context omitted.
The current system is more irrational, unless you're benefiting from the corrupt system. Bitcoin is democratic and you vote with a node.
Yes, and its voters vote for their own profits, which makes it swing wildly. Being "democratic" doesn't make something immune to greed.
It's clear you don't understand how nodes or "voting" works. There's no mechanism there which would induce wild swings.
Re: Ask HN: Do you think this is the start of the new financial crisis?
#187Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes, and its voters vote for their own profits, which makes it swing wildly. Being "democratic" doesn't make something immune to greed.
It's clear you don't understand how nodes or "voting" works. There's no mechanism there which would induce wild swings.
I do, actually. I never said there was a mechanism that induces swings--there doesn't need to be one. The users do it through speculation, just like with any other asset, only it's worse with Bitcoin because it isn't tied to anything of real value, even theoretically (unless you think wasted CPU/GPU cycles are valuable). Being "democratic" doesn't magically safeguard against that.
I'm not a fan of the fed and I think some sort of decentralized currency would be great. Bitcoin was a good idea and I'm glad we're experimenting along those lines, but it's a failed experiment. It's never going to work as a mainstream currency. Maybe some future iteration of the cryptocurrency idea will be the solution, but Bitcoin ain't it.
Re: Ask HN: Do you think this is the start of the new financial crisis?
#188Earlier quoted context omitted.
Sitting atop the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund, accumulated over decades of judicious management of national oil wealth, perhaps insulates Norway from realities that apply elsewhere.
Now do Sweden
As much as the rest of the Nordics hate to admit it, Norway's economy is far more stable than those of their neighbours, including the Swedish one.
Re: Ask HN: Do you think this is the start of the new financial crisis?
#189Earlier quoted context omitted.
Australia might be a reverse bubble. It is really the salaries shrinking (in real terms) rather than hot house prices increases.
My street going >60% up in price would disagree and I can't think of any other price that grew as fast in the last 2 years. Food and other things got slightly more expensive, but it doesn't seem comparable to the housing.
I am guessing your street is a very hip desirable (top 1%) area.
Most suburbs would have gone up in 2021 and down in 2022 and not be that much higher.
Re: Ask HN: Do you think this is the start of the new financial crisis?
#190Earlier quoted context omitted.
Great idea! As someone who spent time volunteering for Bernie Sanders campaign, I'll wait here while you go do that: Good luck!
>As someone who spent time volunteering for Bernie Sanders campaign How do you feel about his three houses? The truth is people with the money don't want to change things and those with the power stop caring as much once they too get more.
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