Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? • Hacker News Board

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#181

Post by tehlike » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 1:42 AM UTC

badatseciruty wrote: post #144

majewsky wrote: post #61

Maybe not this decade, but at latest in the 2030s, we (or our children) will look back on our current consumption patterns in utter disgust. For context: I live in a city in East Germany, and there is a tourist attraction called "Trabi Safari" where people can do sightseeing in Trabant cars (the East German model that according to folklore was made from cardboard). Whenever I walk down the street and a line of these…

I'm hoping that when my kids grow up they're horrified that we ever drove gas-powered cars.

That sounds crazy. Nobody is horrified by trains burning coal, noone is horrified by old tech. It is part of progress.

They should be horrified by wars, political unrest and so on...

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#182

Post by tehlike » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 1:42 AM UTC

ximeng wrote: post #134

Household robots that can launder and fold clothes and cook food will be in use but not ubiquitous yet. Say top 10% households in developed countries.

Ill bite. This will not happen, cost will be too restrictive even if it is technologically possible

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#183

Post by boltzmannbrain » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 1:43 AM UTC

aazaa wrote: post #172

1. The election of 2020 will catalyze the creation of a third major political party composed of former Democrats and Republicans. By the end of the decade, this new party, propelled by its charismatic leader, will have relegated the current parties to minority status. 2. The fastest-shrinking part of the economy will be middle management. Flat organization restructuring will be driven by a dizzying proliferation of c…

Thank you for making intriguing predictions that aren't about FANG, software stack, etc :)

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#184

Post by busyant » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 1:43 AM UTC

misiti3780 wrote: post #112

In no particular order (mine are more US focused because I am an American) - Electric car prices will continue to go down, there will be more electric cars than gas cars in 2030 - Bitcoin and blockchain products will turn out to be basically useless. there will be no huge blockchain successes in the next 10 years. bitcoin mining will need to stop because of climate change - there will be more "brexit" type events in…

> Donald Trump will (unfortunately) be elected again in 2020

And lose the popular vote again.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#185

Post by [deleted] » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 1:43 AM UTC

leonidasv wrote: post #179

* IoT hacking becomes a real issue; ransomware exploiting smart door locks will lock people off their homes, refusing to open until ransom is paid. * The end of Moore's Law force more and more engineering effort to be spent on performance optimizations; "performance optimization" is the new cool keyword to have in your resume. * Discrete optimization becomes a hot topic much like neural nets are today. * WebAssembly…

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#186

Post by wyxuan » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 1:43 AM UTC

Here are mine:

- Smartphones become a relic of the past, and are replaced by wearables

- Onboard processing becomes non existent, and is replaced by low latency decentralized networks (a little like stadia)

- Changes in climate ensure that the way we live our lives, and living in bunkers becomes popular

- privacy doesn't matter as much as it did before

- the US becomes displaced by China as the hegemon, but the designation doesn't matter as much anymore

- The world as a whole moves away from manufacturing physical goods to digital 'goods' and services.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#187

Post by jcranmer » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 1:44 AM UTC

fullstackchris wrote: post #120

lerax wrote: post #60

2020-2029: New AI winter.

(serious) I don't get the reference, do you mean a stall in AI progress or a brief overall industry-wide disinterest in it?

The term AI winter usually refers to the late-80s collapse in AI funding after the technology of the time (particularly expert systems and Japan's "fifth generation computer" project) failed spectacularly to live up to the hype.

Before that, there were other downturns in AI funding after early technology turned out not to pan out so well. For example, the late 60s' effort at machine translation.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#188

Post by petecox » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 1:44 AM UTC

2bitencryption wrote: post #66

1. Merging of mobile/desktop OS (i.e. iOS and MacOS becoming one and the same). 2. A Microsoft first-party Android device is launched, following a similar attack strategy they are currently starting with Edge on Chromium: fork, improve, destroy. 3. ARM takes over... actually, a more bold prediction: x86-64 remains king, and ARM is not able to conquer beyond the mobile market, despite present-day feelers. 4. Self driv…

5. I'd expect various bricks-and-mortar cinema chains to go bust or amalgamate, thanks to online distribution and 8K TV.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#189

Post by senordevnyc » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 1:45 AM UTC

aazaa wrote: post #172

1. The election of 2020 will catalyze the creation of a third major political party composed of former Democrats and Republicans. By the end of the decade, this new party, propelled by its charismatic leader, will have relegated the current parties to minority status. 2. The fastest-shrinking part of the economy will be middle management. Flat organization restructuring will be driven by a dizzying proliferation of c…

Wow, I think almost every one of these is wildly unrealistic :)

1. Third parties are desperately needed but the rules are stacked way too hard against them. And there’s not nearly enough true dissatisfaction in both parties to see a new one overcome.

2. People were saying that decades ago. Really skeptical.

3. Unless they result in thousands of lives lost, it won’t have nearly the same effect. And that seems unlikely / hard to predict.

4. See above

5. Weird. There are very few nuclear powers and none of them have much incentive to start using nukes in combat, let alone low level nukes.

6. I hope so! But this would probably be the most transformative one on this list. That level of battery innovation would have huge cascading effects throughout society. Feels like wishful thinking.

7. Only if there’s some killer app, and the last decade doesn’t inspire confidence.

8. You think most countries are going to tear down a multi trillion dollar education / babysitter system in favor of telepresence homeschooling in the next decade? No way. And teenagers don’t leave the house as much anymore due to technology but that trend will not explode in a decade. Maybe over longer term, but I also think it’s a real problem that society will attempt to solve well before we end up with most teens rarely leaving the house.

Anyway, just mildly disagreeing. Guess we’ll see!

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#190

Post by throwno » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 1:45 AM UTC

throwaway1jghj wrote: post #122

USB-D will be announced to remedy the shortcomings of USB-C. In every HN post about it someone will mention the number 927. Meanwhile in 2030 most laptops will still ship with at least one type-A connector, and that connector will still dominate flash drives and the like. Business users will still demand VGA video connectors in 2030 as they need something that always "just works" when presenting to clients, quality b…

New Super Bluetooth makes all peripherals wireless.