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Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

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181–190 of 462 posts

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#181
post #153
post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

JavaScript is quite a bit faster than Ruby in most cases.

Electron isn’t just JavaScript, else I would have said JavaScript. Electron is front and center in the movement to shorten development time by consuming more PC resources at runtime. I feel that’s the spirit of the prediction.

I think Electron's advantage is to shorten training time, not development time.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The dynamic languages slower than ruby prediction didn't hold up either. The past ten years have just seen nibbling around the edges for dynamic languages, without any compelling ideas about how to make them fundamentally more expressive.

Python is eating the world. In many measures, Python is slower than Ruby.

I would have agreed with you in 2013. Now it's just seems so fractured and all over the place, like it's had it's peak and is on the way back down.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#183

> Network analysis and data mining will claim their first major political scalp. That'll be a watershed moment: the politics of information are going to start being the kind of core liberal issue that environmental issues currently are. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025703 This poster saw it.

> Network analysis and data mining will claim their first major political scalp. Who's scalp was it? I don't know any politician who has been taken to task over network analysis and data mining. Fore sure not Obama, whose staffers have quietly chortled that they did far worse than Cambridge Analytica ever did. Definitely not Trump, his numbers are as even as they haev ever been. Maybe Zuckerberg? But he's still CEO o…

I believe the "taking the scalp" could also be a reference for its intended offensive power, not just the scandal of using it.

In that light, the answer is obvious: Hillary Clinton!

(And before someone complaints, which someone will definitely still do: Given the extremely close election, it is possible, even likely, that any single one of maybe a dozen issues had the potential to change the outcome: Just being a bit better as a candidate would have been enough. That e-mail "scandal" getting the same attention as the dozens of carbon copies of it since revealed in the Trump Cabinet, i. e. none, would have sufficed. Defences against Russian interference, or even just widespread knowledge of the attacks, could have been enough etc. etc.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#184
post #5

IsaacL nailed it the best https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1027093 And surprisingly the WoW one is the most off :D

I think the Microsoft prediction is even more off...

There was one comment in the thread about what Steve Jobs will do at the end of the decade. As a ghost I suppose? (Another says he will step down due to his health, which is closer.)

My favorite is the joke that Zuck will buy Portugal.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#185
The most striking thing about the thread is how little of current importance was even mentioned:

- Bitcoin would become the decade's best investment by far

- the President of the US would conduct foreign policy through Twitter

- electric scooters would become a billion dollar business (Bird, Lime, etc.)

- the sharing economy would threaten the taxi and hotel industries (AirBNB and Uber)

- escalation of school shootings

- the explosive growth of quantitative easing

- negative nominal interest rates on sovereign debt

- revelations of mass surveillance by the US government

- streaming video services would begin to produce content rivaling major studios in quality

- Amazon would become the everything company

- DNA testing would become a major recreational activity with numerous judicial and social implications

- the US would approach energy independence, driven largely by a boom in oil extraction technologies

Also interesting to consider how all of these ideas would have seemed more or less ludicrous in 2010.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#187

> Network analysis and data mining will claim their first major political scalp. That'll be a watershed moment: the politics of information are going to start being the kind of core liberal issue that environmental issues currently are. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025703 This poster saw it.

> Network analysis and data mining will claim their first major political scalp. Who's scalp was it? I don't know any politician who has been taken to task over network analysis and data mining. Fore sure not Obama, whose staffers have quietly chortled that they did far worse than Cambridge Analytica ever did. Definitely not Trump, his numbers are as even as they haev ever been. Maybe Zuckerberg? But he's still CEO o…

Hillary Clinton. The Trump campaign claims their data operation is how they won in the Rust Belt.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#188

If something can be predicted, or if many people agree with you, then it's not that revolutionary. ctrl+f "bitcoin" returns 0 results. Disruptive ideas take humanity by a storm few people believe it's coming, the rest can only connect the dots looking backwards.

To be fair, when I ctrl+f Bitcoin in my actual life there’s also 0 results.

I feel that overall much didn't change in the past decade in the tech world. Bitcoin is a great example of that, there was a big bubble where you could raise money just by mentioning Blockchain, and then just as quickly it faded away. AI isn't much different at the moment, it feels much more like a marketing buzzword than something that has changed my life.

Compare this to developments happening outside the computing-tech world (like Musk is doing) and the rise of green building tech. Today it is more than feasible to build a house that generates more energy than it consumes over the course of a year, even in cold climates like Northern Europe. The only thing preventing this from being more common is knowledge (builders keep building what they know) and it costs a little more upfront.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#190
post #4

A lot of doom and gloom for Microsoft in that thread. But Microsoft has fared much better than anyone expected.

I disagree, I think anyone the put in charge would have done well. Satya came in during one of the biggest bull runs in history and just surfed the wave. Even Ballmer would have had a hard time to stop that.

You don't become a $1.2T company by surfing a wave. Its stock price has more than quintupled. IBM's stock price is almost flat over 10 years. GE is down over the decade. Changing direction for a ship that large is very, very hard--a seemingly intractable problem but not for the model Microsoft has provided.
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