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Ask HN: Do you think this is the start of the new financial crisis?

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Re: Ask HN: Do you think this is the start of the new financial crisis?

#171

Post by nebula8804 »

bacchusracine wrote: post #165
nebula8804 wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Great idea! As someone who spent time volunteering for Bernie Sanders campaign, I'll wait here while you go do that: Good luck!

>As someone who spent time volunteering for Bernie Sanders campaign How do you feel about his three houses? The truth is people with the money don't want to change things and those with the power stop caring as much once they too get more.

Lets take a look at these three homes.

1. 221 Van Patten Parkway, Burlington Vermont: purchased for ? in 1981 currently valued ~$405k

2. 311 4th St NE, Washington, D.C.: purchased for ~$490k in 07 valued at ~$736k

3. 310 Stone Gate Lane, North Hero, Vermont: purchased for ~575k in 2016

I'd like to think that a senator that is 81 years old could have done much better given this is the bulk of his worth. In fact many developers here working for FAANG will probably exceed how he turned out if they haven't already.

Re: Ask HN: Do you think this is the start of the new financial crisis?

#173

Post by reducesuffering »

bacchusracine wrote: post #165
nebula8804 wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Great idea! As someone who spent time volunteering for Bernie Sanders campaign, I'll wait here while you go do that: Good luck!

>As someone who spent time volunteering for Bernie Sanders campaign How do you feel about his three houses? The truth is people with the money don't want to change things and those with the power stop caring as much once they too get more.

All US senators and reps should have a residence in their home territory and DC (they need to understand their constituents' area and they need to be in DC a lot). Bernie's is a 1 bedroom in DC, so those two are a given imo and nothing to be concerned about. His third is a $575k rural lake house; probably a country retreat from being in the cities of Burlington and DC all the time. So while getting a little extravagant for the average American, it's certainly not very unusual for many people in the US to have a modest rural retreat "cabin." I've seen many blue collar families in that circumstance, even in California. And I say this as someone who wouldn't vote for Bernie.

Re: Ask HN: Do you think this is the start of the new financial crisis?

#174

Post by nebula8804 »

shagymoe wrote: post #157
nebula8804 wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Great idea! As someone who spent time volunteering for Bernie Sanders campaign, I'll wait here while you go do that: Good luck!

I was right there with you. We're collectively too stupid or too easily manipulated to enact the change we need.

Gen-Z are absolute rockstars. I like to think that part of the surprise win for Dems in 2022 was boomers passing away (possibly accelerated due to anti-vax COVID deaths) and Gen-Z really coming out in the hopes of some sort of college loan relief.

Hopefully down the road the millennials and gen-z become a large enough collective that they finally push out the garbage...although the establishment wont go down without a massive fight.

Re: Ask HN: Do you think this is the start of the new financial crisis?

#175

Post by reducesuffering »

3dbrows wrote: post #168
Teever wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please. One look at Norway tells me this is malarky. If Norway can have such a stable economy and society, why can't the rest of the world? What have they figured out that has eluded everyone else?

Sitting atop the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund, accumulated over decades of judicious management of national oil wealth, perhaps insulates Norway from realities that apply elsewhere.

Now do Sweden

Re: Ask HN: Do you think this is the start of the new financial crisis?

#176

Post by dragonwriter »

bjourne wrote: post #172

It feels extremely similar. But this time we have had governments causing unemployment to curb inflation. So this crash could very well be much more severe than the 2008/09 one.

> But this time we have had governments causing unemployment to curb inflation.

That’s true of most recessions, because by definition a recession is the period after a business cycle peak, and the peak of business cycles is when inflationary pressures are high and monetary policy tends to be tight to constrain inflation. It is definitely not a difference between today the 2007-2009 Great Recession where interest rates were at 5.25 for an extended period leading into it to fight inflation, a much tighter than they are today significantly tighter than today, and for significantly longer.

And we’ve had nothing like the expansion-with-no-gains-for-the-bottom-95% of 2001-2007 leading up to today, which was a major source of the magnitude of the 2007-2009 Great Recession.

Re: Ask HN: Do you think this is the start of the new financial crisis?

#177

Post by dragonwriter »

antibasilisk wrote: post #84
neural_thing wrote: post #9

The vibes are similar to early 2008. But the financial structure is different. Banks are not overleveraged. Housing is not all adjustable rate. That being said, easy to see weakness. Commercial real estate is a big one. I'm somewhat concerned about non-bank Financials. Some large foreign banks (CS(dead) , DB, HSBC) I'm skeptical of. And a recession feels imminent (felt to me this way even before SVB). To sum up, I do…

>Banks are not overleveraged But the people are, consumer debt is out the wazoo

> consumer debt is out the wazoo

No, its not, compared to 2007, when the all time peak of consumer debt (as a share of GDP) was reached, at 98.4%. The recent local peak was 80% in early 2021, and by September 2022 (the most recent number I can find) it had dropped to 75.2%.

Re: Ask HN: Do you think this is the start of the new financial crisis?

#178

Post by dragonwriter »

namrog84 wrote: post #101
hanoz wrote: post #31

Yes, because interest rates clearly need to go a lot higher to get inflation under control around the world, yet banks are already starting to fail from the stress of it at these low rates, and the central banks' bailout mechanism is itself inflationary. Although, strictly speaking the answer should be no , this is not the start of a new financial crisis, it is a continuation of the 2008 crisis.

But isn't there really not inflation going on but late stage unregulated capitalistic greed?

Consumer price increases are inflation whether or not they are caused by “late stage unregulated capitalistic greed”.

Re: Ask HN: Do you think this is the start of the new financial crisis?

#179

Post by dragonwriter »

stcroixx wrote: post #115

Feels worse to me in scope. Subjective, of course, but the combination of inflation and interest rates seems to have a broader impact. It was easily possible to get through 2008 mostly unscathed unless you were just about to retire, but everyone's already been taking a hit for some time now and it could get worse. I have less confidence in the current admin than in 2008 as well. I 100% expect lies and corruption and…

> but everyone’s already been taking a hit

Nowhere close to the hit everyone was taking from income declines across all income groups except (well, at least the bottom 95%) in the 2001-2007 “expansion” leading into the 2007 Great Recession. (And, also, the much longer period of much higher interest rates, with much higher consumer debt load, leading into the 2007-2009 Great Recession.)

Re: Ask HN: Do you think this is the start of the new financial crisis?

#180

Post by woobar »

Teever wrote: post #164
sheepybloke wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. Economics likes to pretend it is a hard science because it has mathematics and formulas and hard numbers, but it's not. It is much closer with a social science, where work has either big assumptions or is much closer to a study about the market's behavior. But because economics has masqueraded as a science, we expect it to be more exact than it really is, and I think that dissonance can be quite impactful to…

Please. One look at Norway tells me this is malarky. If Norway can have such a stable economy and society, why can't the rest of the world? What have they figured out that has eluded everyone else?

Should we also look at Qatar or UAE?
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