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Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

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Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#171
post #166

Russia will collapse.

I fear this is a definite possibility, and it's terrifying. Because the main thing that Russia has, their only real claim to being a major power, and the only reason why they've been able to get away with their invasion, is their nukes. And if the country really collapses, who knows what will happen to those nukes? I don't mean to upset anyone, and I think the chance of collapse is small, but it's not zero.

They didn't use nukes during the collapse of Soviet Union.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#172
post #28

Energy? I feel like it's been talked about a lot but maybe not? Solar panels are dropping in cost at an exponential rate [0]. As of this writing, consumer "new" panels are $0.75/W and used are at around $0.30/W right now (I won't give a link as a Google search will do). Battery technology is also dropping at an exponential rate. I believe, with a little effort, one can purchase batteries at about $0.08/Wh. Taken toge…

I saw an article recently (here maybe?) that the world could switch to 100% green energy and make the investment back in 6 years. I haven't looked at the math behind it, and actually getting that many solar panels up is going to take some time too, but it really seems to me like this is the main thing we should all be focusing on right now. Because of high fossil energy prices, getting rid of Russian gas, and of course because of climate change. Three very big reasons to go all out on clean energy.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#173

The stumble over abandonment of ICE vehicles. By 2030 (8 years from now) at least six manufacturers will have stopped making ICE vehicles entirely, and India claims it will ban the sale of ICE-only vehicles. By 2040 (18 years from now) over half of all new cars sold will be electric, and the UK and France claim they will ban the sale of ICE-only vehicles. However, there's still not a plan that makes all that sustaina…

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#174
post #34

Pity it's not possible to open-source execution. So many good ideas fail due to poor execution (these days, quite possibly a larger number are killed by birth by bigco's - that's still a 'failure to execute' though, in a certain sense).

> Pity it's not possible to open-source execution.

I first interpreted this as pertaining to the death penalty.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#175
post #28

Energy? I feel like it's been talked about a lot but maybe not? Solar panels are dropping in cost at an exponential rate [0]. As of this writing, consumer "new" panels are $0.75/W and used are at around $0.30/W right now (I won't give a link as a Google search will do). Battery technology is also dropping at an exponential rate. I believe, with a little effort, one can purchase batteries at about $0.08/Wh. Taken toge…

I wouldn’t get too excited for decentralized energy. More energy sources means more power lines all over the place. Few things get NIMBYs worked up like power lines. The social aspect will be harder to solve than the engineering.

Or less. People are using solar to go off the grid.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#176

Russia will collapse.

I feel like this definitely needs to be expanded. What makes you think that?

Their currency is stronger than before the war (despite internal fragility)

They have the entire continent of Europe by the balls on oil/gas

They've made an absolute killing in the energy sector this year due to the fear and scarcity they have created.

They're making steady gains in their war in Ukraine

They have the ear and economic heart of China

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#177

Clean Energy, Water Desalination, Nigeria's crackdown on anonymous SIM cards, Monkeypox, Separation of Church & State in a post-Roe world, Computer chips made out of light, The managed decline of Britain, Crackdowns on E2E encrypted messaging apps, Quantum-resistant cryptography, Tesla cars charged by burning coal.

>Separation of Church & State in a post-Roe world Tell me you're an American without telling me you're an American. While I don't diminish the impact it could have over there, that's irrelevant to the daily lives of literally the rest of the world.

He mentioned the managed decline of Britain though, so maybe he is British and I don't know who else would care so much about what happens to us...

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#178
post #171
post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I fear this is a definite possibility, and it's terrifying. Because the main thing that Russia has, their only real claim to being a major power, and the only reason why they've been able to get away with their invasion, is their nukes. And if the country really collapses, who knows what will happen to those nukes? I don't mean to upset anyone, and I think the chance of collapse is small, but it's not zero.

They didn't use nukes during the collapse of Soviet Union.

Only barely

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#179

The stumble over abandonment of ICE vehicles. By 2030 (8 years from now) at least six manufacturers will have stopped making ICE vehicles entirely, and India claims it will ban the sale of ICE-only vehicles. By 2040 (18 years from now) over half of all new cars sold will be electric, and the UK and France claim they will ban the sale of ICE-only vehicles. However, there's still not a plan that makes all that sustaina…

ICE = Internal Combustion Engine for other non-native who wouldn't understand how a vehicle can work on ice

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#180
post #28

Energy? I feel like it's been talked about a lot but maybe not? Solar panels are dropping in cost at an exponential rate [0]. As of this writing, consumer "new" panels are $0.75/W and used are at around $0.30/W right now (I won't give a link as a Google search will do). Battery technology is also dropping at an exponential rate. I believe, with a little effort, one can purchase batteries at about $0.08/Wh. Taken toge…

> Taken together, one can purchase a 30KWh (daily) solar panel and battery storage system for about $4,200 I haven’t researched it but I feel like I’d have pay 20-40K for such a system. What gives? Is it all just labor and regulations? Why can’t we solve that?

> Why can’t we solve that?

Maybe this is the next big thing.

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