Ask HN: How bad will the 2020 economic crisis be? • Hacker News Board

Re: Ask HN: How bad will the 2020 economic crisis be?

#171

Post by OJFord » Tue, Mar 24, 2020, 1:01 PM UTC

IanSanders wrote: post #150

bufferoverflow wrote: post #92

It's going to be bad for the following reasons: 1) Governments are not shutting everything down fast enough. Many countries are in the phase of "oh, we only have 200 cases, not a problem, look at Italy" . They are just a few weeks behind Italy. 2) Some people, especially young ones, are not following quarantines. All it takes is one super-spreader to start another wave of infection. 3) People will run out of money so…

> 1) I'm just a rando from the internet but my suspicion is that governments could be intentionally trying to slow the infection rate down rather than stop it completely. If you perform a perfect shutdown with 200 cases, lets say another 400 are identified since, all 600 recover/don't make it, but once you stop the quarantine everything will be back to square one - someone will spread it again eventually. On the othe…

UK government was open about that. (It spread faster than anticipated though, so was dialled back and we're now in 'lockdown'.)

Re: Ask HN: How bad will the 2020 economic crisis be?

#172

Post by OJFord » Tue, Mar 24, 2020, 1:06 PM UTC

biolurker1 wrote: post #154

user5994461 wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These are very different cultures. London allows to work from home, or to be off work when sick, and does not force employees to shake hand or hug as a matter of courtesy. Besides, the UK didn't quarantine officially much later than Italy. Not to mention that the the larger corporations instructed employees to work from home week(s) before the official lockdown.

nice story, take a look at the London subway today around the news and social media that falsifies all your hopes. Welcome to the harsh reality and good luck.

The tube (subway) has been at half capacity for weeks.

If you're seeing photos of it being busy 'around the news and social media', it's either false, or TfL has overdone it in reducing service and so caused usual levels of crowding.

Excerpts from most recent service update email:

> Ridership on our services has fallen dramatically over the last few weeks.

> Some Tube stations that do not interchange with other lines will have to close until further notice

> From today, Friday 20 March, the Waterloo & City line will be closed and there will be no Night Tube or Night Overground services until further notice. Emirates Air Line will have a reduced service until 20:00 today

> From tomorrow, Saturday 21 March, Emirates Air Line will be closed until further notice

> From Monday 23 March, we will also gradually reduce other services across the TfL network

More here: https://tfl.gov.uk/campaign/coronavirus-covid-

Re: Ask HN: How bad will the 2020 economic crisis be?

#173

Post by throw51319 » Tue, Mar 24, 2020, 4:42 PM UTC

akiselev wrote: post #125

istorical wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is my greatest fear as an American engineer. When corporations finally realize remote work is just as valuable as in office work they'll start to wonder why they are employing US developers for $XX,XXX to $XXX,XXX when they could pay a European developer a low five figure salary in a weaker currency and get the same results.

I'm more worried about tech losing its status as investment of last resort. Who knows how much of the industry is propped up by the flood of easy capital in the last few decades. We just watched all that capital dry up with everyone's liquidity. Software engineering already went through a wave of offshoring in the 2000s and the whiplash from that was enough to make many a freelancer/agency/startup rich. We learned th…

I could see aggregate investment in tech go down, but relative investment no way. Automating all processes with technology gives benefit in all industries. Our skills will be lucrative (relatively speaking) until they figure out how to automate the building of somewhat complex systems.

Re: Ask HN: How bad will the 2020 economic crisis be?

#174

Post by ccajas » Tue, Mar 24, 2020, 7:43 PM UTC

tarsinge wrote: post #75

tyingq wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe in a bounce back also, but I don't think we will bounce back to the same state. A couple of examples... Many companies will have figured out how to run leaner. So post recovery, they may not bring back everyone that was laid off. Lean is good, of course, but unemployment isn't. Competition will go down. Not every company in every space will survive. So things will consolidate down to the survivors. This pro…

That’ll look like a good case for UBI if we go down that route of leaner businesses. Also given that a reduction in consumption was needed short term for climate it might have indirect middle long term positive effects.

A situation like this one may actually speed up the need for many business to digitize their business models.