Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? • Hacker News Board

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#171

Post by jcranmer » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 1:33 AM UTC

jostmey wrote: post #128

tick_tock_tick wrote: post #28

1. Trust in journalists and news publications will continue to crater due to their inability to resist clickbait, sloppy ethic controls, and constant hyperboles. 2. China will enter a pronounced recession that is it unable to hide from the world. 3. The EU will lose at-least one more member nation after the United Kingdom leaves. 4. The credibility of scientist and research universities will hit all time lows as the…

> 4. The credibility of scientist and research universities will hit all time lows as the effects of the replication crisis become more pronounced and climate changes predictions prove less accurate than lay people find acceptable. While I agree the credibility of scientist and research universities has hit all time lows, I don't see a pullback in funding or any major changes

I suspect funding will decline in the next recession and not increase during the recovery.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#172

Post by aazaa » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 1:35 AM UTC

1. The election of 2020 will catalyze the creation of a third major political party composed of former Democrats and Republicans. By the end of the decade, this new party, propelled by its charismatic leader, will have relegated the current parties to minority status.

2. The fastest-shrinking part of the economy will be middle management. Flat organization restructuring will be driven by a dizzying proliferation of cheap decision-making systems directly instructing low wage workers.

3. At least two digital 9/11s will take place. These will be major attacks on crucial infrastructure of a world power by a group no larger than 2,000 individuals.

4. At least two digital Tonkin Gulf incidents will take place. In the rush to pin blame and "do something," the victim of a digital 9/11 will identify - and attack - an innocent country.

5. At least one low-yield nuclear weapon will be used in a combat situation.

6. New battery technologies will make it possible to power a full-size car for 500 miles with a unit costing under $300.

7. The value of bitcoin in circulation will exceed the M1 money supply of all but the top 3 countries.

8. Teenagers will rarely leave their houses, replacing most physical interactions, including school, with telepresence tools.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#173

Post by chubot » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 1:36 AM UTC

boulos wrote: post #152

air7 wrote: post #132

Here are mine: 1. Still no level 4/5 autonomous cars anywhere in sight. The promise of being "just around the corner" fizzles down and people just forget the hype. 2. Same with AI. The panacea hype dies down. No AGI at all. No major job losses due to AI automation. 3. Facebook (the SN) still exists but ages along with it's current user base. i.e it's the "old people's" SN. Facebook (the company) is still going strong…

Care to enter into a bet on #1? (Particularly with your phrasing, it seems like Waymo in Phoenix already counts)

I posted something similar and I would bet money on it, if there's a good mechanism to do so.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21942100

I've invested in rideshare companies with the assumption that humans will still largely be behind the wheel in 10 years.

(Because nobody's going back to taxis; rideshare is more backward compatible than public transit buildout; it's harder than you think to start a new rideshare company, etc. Also once something becomes popular, people underestimate how long it sticks. Similar to somebody predicting on the 2010 thread that Facebook would be gone by now.)

Side note: I've made bearish predictions about self-driving on HN for at least 2-3 years if you check my comment history. I'm don't want to be negative, just realistic. I'm bullish on the software industry in general and video in particular.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#174

Post by senordevnyc » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 1:36 AM UTC

Infinitesimus wrote: post #150

* Facebook, Amazon, MS will still be around and be bigger than now. * There will be a recession that will ripple for longer than the last one * Waymo will finally launch but have minimal impact in the US and will end up licensing the tech/partnering with car manufacturers to stay relevant. * Apple will enter a tangential but highly profitable market most people won't see coming (think general mobility or communicatio…

I agree with most of this. I think we could make it to mars by then but no permanent presence.

Really hope China undergoes a change towards democracy. A little skeptical in ten years though.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#175

Post by bowlingx » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 1:36 AM UTC

I think a highly underrated Topic:

Food and Environment:

1.) Clean meat will become affordable to produce and cause a big shift in the meat industry.

2.) More People will switch to a (more) plant based diet, either for health and/or environmental and ethical reasons

3.) There will be a lot more startups in the plant based food sector (like beyond meat, just egg etc.)

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#176

Post by crazypython » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 1:37 AM UTC

I predict we will see the further consolidation and co-integration of programming languages.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#177

Post by amelius » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 1:37 AM UTC

air7 wrote: post #132

Here are mine: 1. Still no level 4/5 autonomous cars anywhere in sight. The promise of being "just around the corner" fizzles down and people just forget the hype. 2. Same with AI. The panacea hype dies down. No AGI at all. No major job losses due to AI automation. 3. Facebook (the SN) still exists but ages along with it's current user base. i.e it's the "old people's" SN. Facebook (the company) is still going strong…

> 9. Global carbon emissions are not reduced, mostly because of lack of initiative by China and 3rd world countries.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_China

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#178

Post by slickrick216 » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 1:37 AM UTC

Organs will be harvested from pig human chimaeras. Will likely be uncovered that it was happening in the 2010’s but disclosed publicly this decade. Likely China are world leaders in this.

Increased tension along India Pakistan border results in skirmish’s and possible Balkanisation of Pakistan. India suffers a bad recession and undergoes a regime change and try’s to divert political opinion by attacking the Pakistan border region. Similar to Argentina Falklands conflict.

Trump re-elected but democrats win in 2024 with first female president elected. She will be from a mid western state and have wide base of support from across party lines and isn’t seen as a contender at this time.

Brexit transition is painful but Britain is doing better and having a localised boom by end of the decade. This is largely due to less regulation.

Ireland undergoes reunification this decade. Everyone hopes in 2024 to meet the Star Trek prophecy.

South Africa property seizures on white landowners cause mass emigration leads to food security issues in the region.

Cyber security bubble pops. Most people catch on to the fact that it’s mostly vapourware. Most companies in-house security so it’s mostly managed security service providers affected. One of the big MSSPs goes bust and is merged in other another one. Likely crowdstrike into fireeye.

A cyber security service provider is hacked and used as a vector to target customers.

The next recession will be a money recession due to over supply caused by quantitative easing. This causes inflation on price. This will be preceded by a year of wide scale introduction of negative interest rates.

Fake meat products linked to one of the following; hormone issues, cancer, foreign food tampering scandal.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#179

Post by leonidasv » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 1:39 AM UTC

* IoT hacking becomes a real issue; ransomware exploiting smart door locks will lock people off their homes, refusing to open until ransom is paid.

* The end of Moore's Law force more and more engineering effort to be spent on performance optimizations; "performance optimization" is the new cool keyword to have in your resume.

* Discrete optimization becomes a hot topic much like neural nets are today.

* WebAssembly with Rust is the new trend in web development. JS still lives, tho.

* Forget Docker, unikernels are the future.

* Foldable smartphones are still a joke.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#180

Post by joyjoyjoy » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 1:41 AM UTC

Here a mine:

1. We will see an economic depression, also caused by energy problems. The current quantitative easing is actually the first sign of the problems with energy: https://ourfiniteworld.com/2019/09/12/our-energy-and-debt-pr...

2. Brexit will be bad for the UK

3. Nuclear energy will have a renaissance, also caused by climate worries. 4th generation reactors and/or Thorium reactors will be build.

4. Pension bomb explodes, together with a declining stock-market, pension hair cuts are unavoidable.

5. Russia will do good economically, becoming a bigger player.

6. Immigration problems: not enough qualified employees available anymore, at the same time the EU will get tough on immigrants from non-integrating gap countries

7. Based on financial worries, countries will get tax on tax avoidance of individuals.

8. Iran will either open up internationally an be a strong player or will stay closely aligned to China and Russia. Saudi Arabia may collapse. https://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/2015/0...

9. Google will lose its primary position on search. New search engines will be decentralized (e.g. yacy.net), possible in combination with a crypto currency.

10. The beginning of genetically engineering of humans. Now rich people give their offspring the best chance. Best schools, best universities, trust funds. Why not give them a competitive advantage by enhancing their IQ? We may also have the first genetically modified athletes.