Bad. Bad bad bad.
Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?
161–170 of 219 posts
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?
#1621. There will be an economic meltdown by summer. Similar to 2008, likely worse.
2. Some kind of extreme US constitutional crisis.
3. Putin will remain in power, but Russia will be struggling dramatically to keep funding the war as Ukrainian attacks keep chipping away at oil and gas exports.
4. At least one new major AI breakthrough.
5. Several more countries virtually collapse
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?
#163Earlier quoted context omitted.
You do know this reads the same as every pessimistic commentary on technology ever, right? So many people were convinced that television was going to fry our brains.
I assure you that it did fry many brains.
But what was the impact?
Society has made tremendous progress since the invention of TV.
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?
#164YouTube will be so inundated by AI cat and dog videos that people stop watching them altogether. People will automatically assume anything labeled "cute" is fake.
I wish, but from what I've seen, most "normies" don't care at all as long as they are entertained. It makes me depressed seeing my friends consuming and sharing all that AI slop while either believing it's true, or not even asking themselves if it is. At least they're having fun while they still can... right?
Why should they care and why does it make you depressed ?
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?
#165Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?
#166[dead]
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?
#167Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes? It’s all true. It can be good in one axis and bad in another axis.
Why is losing the ability/interest in navigating through a paper map by hand bad, though? Humanity has adopted and then discarded skills many times in its history. There were once many master archers, nobody outside of one crazy Danish guy has mastered archery for hundreds of years. That isn't bad, nobody cares, nothing of value was lost.
What we call knowledge work is a bit different to archery though.
Writing for example is proven to be better done by hand with a pen and paper, people who take typed notes don’t retain as much.
AI has accelerated the most simple and obvious answers to easy questions.
For more difficult things deep thinking and writing, partly with pen and paper notes and diagrams are still the most effective tools.
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?
#168I suspect that 2026 will be the year we see a big breakthrough in the use of LLM agent systems. I don’t know what that will look like but I suspect the agents will be doing meaningful research (probably on AI).
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?
#169People's minds will become even lazier due to prolonged daily use of LLMs. They literally won't be able to think for themselves without AI assistance (that's why OpenAI won't fall, btw). Attention spans will drop even lower, causing severe psychological problems. Think 'Digital Dementia 2.0.' Later, LLMs will be portrayed as something evil, yet everyone will still use them. Parents will use them, while telling their…
I don't get this take. My knowledge and engineering has only gone up over time. I read significantly more and higher quality technical information and need to debug problems significantly harder. I think AI will in general make everyone a lot smarter. Maybe the people who use AI as a companion will melt? I'm sure there's some kind of repetitive addiction loop that could melt your brain just like anythibg else though.
I can only speak from personal experience. But as a 21 Year old, I'd definitely say that AI has made me so much more unproductive and reduced my attention span immensly. My Brain was already fried from social media and now there is always an "easy" way to do annoying but very educational tasks. And amongst my peers, especially those without a background in IT, misunderstanding and anthropomorphising has made this even worse. I think for people who already have great skills, AI will probably be helpful, not harmful. But for my generation, which has been through covid, social media and now has to figure out healthy AI usage, this is a fight already lost.
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?
#170Debt and Liquidity Crisis in the Bond Market that spreads to other areas. Probably first signs will be in the Repo market and go from there.
Zelensky will be replaced as Ukraine's leader and Ukraine as a whole will switch back to Russian control, moving the new front line to other former Soviet states and Poland. Also, all of the weapons provided to Ukraine will begin pointing at Europe instead of Russia
China will begin blockading the islands around Taiwan, leading to a blockade of Taiwan itself. Odds are there will be a peaceful reunification with China instead of a war.
Maduro will be overthrown in Venezuela and is all being used as leverage by the U.S. in its negotiations with China and Russia
The GOP will retain control over the House in the upcoming Midterms
A large labor reduction in many high paying jobs, such as tech, due to higher productivity provided by AI. In normal times, this would cause a kind of deflation to balance everything out. Due to the pending economic crisis, the Govt will spend even more money to try to maintain the current system, leading to more inflation.
The cost to service the current debt will be used to justify a large reduction in Federal Govt agencies and services.
The Atlas comet will not be an alien spacecraft
The public will learn more about the extensive surveillance state and be less approving of it.
The Epstein files will be a big nothing burger.