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Ask HN: What tech companies/industries will do well in a recession?

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Re: Ask HN: What tech companies/industries will do well in a recession?

#161

Post by RickJWagner »

screye wrote: post #113

Speaking of a recession, I hope the recession isn't another massive redistribution of wealth into the hands of an older generation. Housing has continued shooting up, as those in the 30s find themselves with fewer assets to buy it with. The low interest rates amortize the costs allowing affordability, but the older generation still gets a massive payout. Then when the economy start recovering back up, the older gener…

It's anything but a redistribution to favor older generations.

Older generations are living on savings. They don't have upwardly-adjusted salaries. They don't have time to ride equities downward-then-strongly-upward again, they have to spend from the pile they already had.

The strong inflation definitely favors younger generations, who will salary-adjust with it.

Re: Ask HN: What tech companies/industries will do well in a recession?

#162

Post by Sparyjerry »

big_gulp wrote: post #153
nomilk wrote: post #25

Related question: which tech products are 'inferior goods' - goods whose demand rises when incomes fall https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inferior_good

If uber/lyft were cheaper (especially during peak) this would be the future of "inferior goods". Honestly, they should be taking pennies on the dollar for each ride instead of their current rate in order to secure their place in transportation.

I think Uber is in a great position already with the dramatic increase in cost of new and used vehicles and people's ability to work from home multiple days a week or permanently. It may already be more cost effective to Uber over having a car. Obviously bussing is an option but Uber matches the flexibility of a car much better. I'm going to generalize here but you might spend $700/month on a car. A monthly payment of $400 for the car (or equivalent purchase price/useful life), $100/mo for insurance, and $200/mo on gas. In a given month there might be 20 to 25 business days. For $700/month you could instead spend $28 per business day on Uber and break even, and if you work from home Uber comes out cheaper. This is without including parking costs in metropolitan area's, repairs, license fees, tows, and of course the insurance deductibles as well when an accident eventually does happen. Plus you get the comfort of not driving and ability to get things done on the trips. If we are drinking we end up Ubering anyways as well so we don't have to drive home.

Re: Ask HN: What tech companies/industries will do well in a recession?

#164

Post by scarface74 »

Sparyjerry wrote: post #162
big_gulp wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If uber/lyft were cheaper (especially during peak) this would be the future of "inferior goods". Honestly, they should be taking pennies on the dollar for each ride instead of their current rate in order to secure their place in transportation.

I think Uber is in a great position already with the dramatic increase in cost of new and used vehicles and people's ability to work from home multiple days a week or permanently. It may already be more cost effective to Uber over having a car. Obviously bussing is an option but Uber matches the flexibility of a car much better. I'm going to generalize here but you might spend $700/month on a car. A monthly payment o…

If my 11 year old Ford gives up the ghost, I’m definitely living the Uber lifestyle. I did it for a year during Covid when I gave my car to my older son who doesn’t live with us. I work remotely and didn’t miss it.

The only reason I have a car now is because we bought a car for my wife and the Ford was hers before.

When I travel for business, I love taking Uber everywhere.

I would rent a car once every two or three months to see my parents who live about 200 miles away.

Re: Ask HN: What tech companies/industries will do well in a recession?

#165

Post by scarface74 »

tubalcain wrote: post #80

I suppose we could also frame the question as which tech companies and industries will NOT do well during the recession. I think that streaming services will not do well. People will return to torrenting and piracy. Same with crypto trading platforms. Basically any place where Joe Average can't afford to spend more than he has on hand. Tesla will see a big drop too, as people will cash out to buy their groceries. As…

Torrenting is really inconvenient compared to streaming. Yes I had a Plex server set up that I could use from anywhere. It isn’t worth the hassle.

Re: Ask HN: What tech companies/industries will do well in a recession?

#166

Post by scarface74 »

blululu wrote: post #112
egberts1 wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

or people look to airBnB as a cheaper alternative to hotels.

Except that an AirBnB now typically costs more than a hotel for basic travel (a private bedroom & bathroom with wifi and maybe some basic kitchen supplies for coffee). AirBnB also uses a bunch of dark patterns (service fees and taxes are not listed in the default nightly rate...) and you don't always get what you thought you were getting. I've been burned enough times with deceptive AirBnB listings to not trust the s…

I can attest to this. My wife and I are planning to rent our house out for a couple of years and become “digital nomads”. I was looking at AirBnbs in different cities. The decent ones weren’t any cheaper than a 3 star (middle of the road) Homewood Suites.

With Homewood Suites, we get a full kitchen, a gym, a pool, and a crazy amount of Hilton Points when we use their highest end credit card.

On top of that, we know what to expect.

Re: Ask HN: What tech companies/industries will do well in a recession?

#168

Post by throwaway383jf »

_3u10 wrote: post #27
no_wizard wrote: post #12

I work at a startup currently and am wondering if it’s time to start job hunting at the big companies because I worry about stability. There will be some flood of labor soon I can feel it in the air and I want to get in before that

It’s always the time to be job hunting. Stay hungry.

No post body was provided.

Re: Ask HN: What tech companies/industries will do well in a recession?

#169

Post by senectus1 »

UncleOxidant wrote: post #39
no_wizard wrote: post #12

I work at a startup currently and am wondering if it’s time to start job hunting at the big companies because I worry about stability. There will be some flood of labor soon I can feel it in the air and I want to get in before that

Build up your emergency fund to at least 6 months of living expenses. > There will be some flood of labor soon I can feel it in the air and I want to get in before that I'm currently still getting several recruiter emails per day. I realize this could change quickly, but so far we're still very much in the talent aquisition and retention phase (in tech, anyway).

>Build up your emergency fund to at least 6 months of living expenses.

If you're able to do this, you will not have a problem and shouldn't be concerned.

For most of us this is an absurdity. I can't imagine having enough emergency funds to survive on alone for 6 months.

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