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Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

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Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#161

Post by ta999999171 »

marcosdumay wrote: post #155
adventured wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there any information on how many of the ~377 Australian cases originated outside versus inside their borders? I can't find much on that figure. South Africa only has 62 cases and New Zealand only has 8 cases. Not much there yet.

Well, in Brazil it's officially known that there has been domestic transmission in both São Paulo (that has been cold, much like a summer in North Europe) and Rio de Janeiro (that has been quite hot on the last few days).

More humid there, easier for microorganism travel.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#162

Post by trianglem »

craftyguy wrote: post #110
aqme28 wrote: post #9

I thought this interview was illuminating for post-lockdown life in China https://twitter.com/MikeIsaac/status/1238604080571772928?s=2... It shows just how far behind we are. TLDW: Temperature checks everywhere. Fever clinics optimized for quarantining the potentially infected. China is trying to actually contain the virus. The only way out for us unless we significantly ramp up testing and lockdown is to admit defea…

> admit defeat and simply optimize for slowing down the onslaught. Oh please. Based on what we know, it's much more likely to not be an 'onslaught.' But hey, if we want to wreck the economy and drive mass hysteria for something that is super not fatal for the vast majority of people, then let's go!

Yeah but if you apply what needle said about 70% of the population getting it and 500K deaths in Germany over 2 years, that’s close to 2 million deaths from the disease. A million deaths a year is horrendous.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#163

Post by kyriakos »

tartuffe wrote: post #120
drclau wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is not correct for some days now. Many other countries in EU have entered a state of emergency with various levels of quarantine at national level: Italy (but that's old news), Spain, France, Belgium, Estonia etc. None as extreme as China, but measures are intensifying gradually. In Czech Republic, only essential businesses are allowed to function, although the measures are not as extreme as they were in China.…

As of tonight in France, the governement just forbad citizen to go outside FOR WHATEVER REASON unless you have an authorization delivered by the prime minister site for : 1) essential work that cannot be done remotly, 2) essential shopping and 3) walking / jogging alone to not get mad and stay healthy. For now, nobody really know anything about this authorization whose details will be available in the following hours…

How's this enforced?

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#164

Post by chengangcs »

hfufigivknog wrote: post #108
ztjio wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not that simple. First of all, most people do not develop permanent immunity to the cold which is usually one of the first 4 known human transmissible corona viruses. So there is no reason to think we'll develop long term immunity to this one either. Second, our reaction has be abysmal which, similar to the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic, massively increases the chance of a second or even third wave of massive infect…

Corona viruses are not “the cold.” Rhinovirus causes the common cold and corona viruses cause 10% of cold cases. Just like other corona viruses, they make a recurring appearance. But this is not because they mutate in the way the flu does. No corona viruses mutate in the way that the flu does. If you have some evidence to prove me wrong then produce it. You definitely develop immunity to viruses that sicken you. For…

Singapore scientist just published a result on bioRxiv. They have found a 382-nt deletion during the evolution of this coronavirus. https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.987222v1

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#165

Post by forkexec »

A rational move would be to lock everyone down until a vaccine is proven safe and efficacious can be delivered to enough people. Since no one other than indigenous people living near bats have any immunity to beta-coronaviruses, it doesn't make sense to expose billions of people to unnecessary risks when we can pause nearly all social- economic activity until immune defense is possible or supplies run low.

The vaccine, once developed, should be free for everyone to encourage high uptake herd immunity.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#166

Post by Noumenon72 »

kyriakos wrote: post #163
tartuffe wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As of tonight in France, the governement just forbad citizen to go outside FOR WHATEVER REASON unless you have an authorization delivered by the prime minister site for : 1) essential work that cannot be done remotly, 2) essential shopping and 3) walking / jogging alone to not get mad and stay healthy. For now, nobody really know anything about this authorization whose details will be available in the following hours…

How's this enforced?

When you see the police, you will be arrested unless you begin jogging and sign an affidavit that you were getting mad. Then it's OK.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#167

Post by etrabroline »

scottlocklin wrote: post #151
pmoriarty wrote: post #16

I've heard an epidemiologist say that if a vaccine becomes available in 18 months it'll be a record. Experimental treatments are being researched, but with only very small numbers of patients. It'll take quite some time for those treatments to become widely available. It's unlikely that we're going to even begin to see things return to normal in a month or even three of isolation, especially if that isolation isn't a…

> I've heard an epidemiologist say that if a vaccine becomes available in 18 months it'll be a record. Your epidemiologist should talk to a chemist or look at a wikipedia entry. In 1957, the H2N2 pandemic vaccine was available in 3 months. Still managed to kill a few million people. https://www.globalsecurity.org/security/ops/hsc-scen-3_pande... https://www.city-journal.org/1957-asian-flu-pandemic

I think you are nitpicking this doctor's words instead of listening to what he's saying. 18 years and no SARS vaccine. 18 months for SARS 2 would be miraculous.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#168

Post by MiroF »

dijit wrote: post #91
grawprog wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>It's your typical pandemic response: - denial - placating measures - minor lockdowns - major lockdowns and panic (running to the store to stockpile toilet paper, for some reason) - total quarantine - life slowly returns to normal When in the last 100 years has this happened that you're basing your 'typical pandemic response' examples on? It certainly hasn't happened in my lifetime...

Depends where you are in the world. H1N1, SARS and Ebola are in recent memory, but they didn't reach my neck of the woods.

H1N1 was not the same, at least. And SARS wasn't pandemic

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#169

Post by dang »

ta999999171 wrote: post #160
inscionent wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Take your xenophobic yammering elsewhere please.

This is almost as funny as when people cry about antisemitic behavior when their favorite celebrity person gets shit for scummy behavior.

We've banned this account for posting unsubstantive comments and ignoring our requests to stop.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

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