A while ago, I was in the same boat. Why try to recreate GitHub, or Uber, or Salesforce, or Facebook? And once I discovered any competitors in my idea's field, I would chalk it down to "not worth trying" and call it a day. But then I realized, if my town can have 3-4 Chinese restaurants with the same exact menus (probably supplied by the same exact distributors), and they've all operated continuously for over a decad…
I don't think this is a super helpful comparison. There is a net demand for Chinese food in the area, and there will definitely be such a thing as 'too much or little' supply (though obviously each offer i.e. supply is a little different) A single restaurant will only be able to meet so much demand, so if there's a niche in terms of region or menu, maybe there's a real opportunity. GitHub, Uber, FB - they all have ne…
One thing that the losers have in common is that their execution was not good enough (or outright bad in the case of ExpertsExchange).
But Altavista was huge when Google started. AOL had network effects that did not help them, so it is absolutely not clear that it is impossible.
People however are more lethargic and programmed by their mobile devices these days, so it may be more difficult now.