Live data from Hacker News

Ask HN: What non-obvious tech/market may take off in the next few years?

news.ycombinator.com

151–160 of 176 posts

Re: Ask HN: What non-obvious tech/market may take off in the next few years?

#151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not what I mean. Commercial agriculture is heavily dependent on, and influenced by, companies that zealously guard what they see as their intellectual property. When I say "open agriculture," I'm referring to protecting free experimentation and open seed culture.

More likely we'll move away from seeds towards sharing clones of rooted cuttings. Much more predictable. Open cutting exchange is a good idea actually. Trace genetics.

How would you go about sharing that, in a predictable way?

Re: Ask HN: What non-obvious tech/market may take off in the next few years?

#152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not what I mean. Commercial agriculture is heavily dependent on, and influenced by, companies that zealously guard what they see as their intellectual property. When I say "open agriculture," I'm referring to protecting free experimentation and open seed culture.

More likely we'll move away from seeds towards sharing clones of rooted cuttings. Much more predictable. Open cutting exchange is a good idea actually. Trace genetics.

I doubt it as that opens up the possibility of one disease wiping out the whole population ala the old breed of Bananas that candies are based on which went extinct in the 70s IIRC.

Re: Ask HN: What non-obvious tech/market may take off in the next few years?

#153
post #5

One idea I've had (heavily influenced by The Diamond Age, I must admit) - a premium video game experience where NPCs you meet are sometimes voiced/acted by actors hired real-time on-demand with face or even body mocap. The NPCs revert back to regular AI versions if an actor is unable to be hired at that time. The player could interact by speaking with their own voice, naturally role-playing the scene. This would of c…

I don't think this makes sense for a number of reasons. 1. As you said, the costs involved. You'd probably need to charge people something like $10 per interaction with a voice actor, plus $2 per minute. This makes for a very limited market. 2. Actors need to be waiting for a request on a wide range of characters since there would not be enough demand for them to consistently play the same character all the time. So,…

A lot of these issues can be solved with ML ala “deepfakes”

Purchase a license to use an actor’s voice/likeness. Have them complete a training set. Now you have their digital doppleganger who can act almost any role required of them.

Re: Ask HN: What non-obvious tech/market may take off in the next few years?

#154

No code/low code. People here underestimate the work it requires to craft a production CRUD app and keep it working. The problem these tools solve are more related to infrastructure rather than one's ability to code. Learning to code might be the easiest part but deploying it, maintaining it, scaling it, securing it and integrating it with thousands of other services remains a huge task even for experienced folks. It…

I think the real shift will be in "no code experts" who get paid more than actual programmers because they learn how to deal with the limitations and extend them for businesses who already have sunk costs in them. A perfect example is Excel experts who can do very well because Excel has symbiotically intertwined with how many businesses operate. Or COBOL experts who get paid because nobody learns COBOL but places ref…

I am predicting this at the large firm where i work. They use terms like "robotics" and "ai robots". The primary line of thought being touted across the firm is "easier to transfer and maintain than traditional code", but there is substantial gatekeeping occurring. I assume license prices are high, because there are not many per department. I am guessing that some of the "automators" holding these scarce licenses will develop a nice moat for themselves if they can prove their value. I sat in on a meeting where the "automator" and his manager said they were seeking to automate high-time-savings/high-risk tasks first (risk being large potential dollar loss, legal exposure, etc. upon failure), which is odd but great for visibility and moat-building (given that fear of traditional code brought them to this point, fear of being unable to properly maintain the ""robots"" could easily come next)

Re: Ask HN: What non-obvious tech/market may take off in the next few years?

#155
post #43

Honestly, why would anyone share a good idea here? I get it that ideas are cheap, but if someone actually thinks they have slam dunk they're not going to share it on HN.

The slam dunk will look like meh to everyone else. It’s the idea AND the insight that counts.

Re: Ask HN: What non-obvious tech/market may take off in the next few years?

#156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Excel is spreadsheet application. It is not related to the parent post, which discusses networked CRUD application, with various integration points, DB, caching, redundant deployments, etc..

I've experienced Excel being used with all of those in bigger non-tech companies. Integration points: Everyone sends their version to Person A, and they integrate it, filter it, postprocess it, extracts parts into another sheet, etc. Caching: Everyone has their own version of the excel sheet in their local inbox. Redundant: There's typically plenty of shared directories on which you can find the same excel sheet in d…

lol, HN melodrama-purists downvoting

No, Excel is not relevant to the conversation. Excel is a standalone desktop application. No, Excel is not an example of a "no-code" webapp. Do you seriously need another adult to tell you these things?

Re: Ask HN: What non-obvious tech/market may take off in the next few years?

#157

Electric aircraft for shorter trips instead of trains. The battery energy density still needs to improve somewhat but that is happening. They’d allow for serving more direct (point to point) routes than trains as the infrastructure cost is so much lower than laying and maintaining tracks. Rail serving high volume routes still makes sense, especially while electric plans remain relatively small.

Elon’s been thinking about this a lot apparently.

https://youtu.be/RyS92KPQnjk

Re: Ask HN: What non-obvious tech/market may take off in the next few years?

#158

No code/low code. People here underestimate the work it requires to craft a production CRUD app and keep it working. The problem these tools solve are more related to infrastructure rather than one's ability to code. Learning to code might be the easiest part but deploying it, maintaining it, scaling it, securing it and integrating it with thousands of other services remains a huge task even for experienced folks. It…

No code/low code is snake oil that gets sold to us every few years, and always fails to take hold. The reason why is because by the time you get the GUI widgets, hand gestures, whistled tones, or whatever in your low-code solution specific enough to be interpretable by computer, what you've come up with is isomorphic to constructs in some programming language. (And don't say "But AI will solve this problem!": anythin…

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: What non-obvious tech/market may take off in the next few years?

#159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You mean you know better than everyone that has been extremely Successful right? OK :)

Survivorship bias is a real thing, and very relevant when discussing tech magnates.

If you want to make this argument it should also hold for everyone. Einstein was lucky, Newton didn't get killed by accident etc. But if you are in denial you can make a lot of arguments.

Re: Ask HN: What non-obvious tech/market may take off in the next few years?

#160
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it has been tried unsuccessfully many times. There is even a Silicon Valley episode about it. Certainly it does not fit the "non-obvious" criterion. Apart from gamers, people just don't want it.

I'd be interested in something for a desktop. Currently, I have 3 monitors and having an extra 2 at the market open would be perfect then put away the headset after 30 minutes and just watch the market. If anyone has a recommendation.

Would those additional monitors be used for web based access or would you want them to directly connect to your machine? If the former, you could pick up a mixed reality headset and spin up web browsers and use them as additional "monitors". Something like this: https://quipscom-my.sharepoint.com/:i:/g/personal/chris_caru...
Post reply on HN