We are in uncharted territory. At this point it's just guesses (educated or not).
Some will have better predictions than others. I'm not an economist so at least a few answers in this thread will be more accurate than my expectations.
Ask HN: How bad will the 2020 economic crisis be?
151–160 of 174 posts
Re: Ask HN: How bad will the 2020 economic crisis be?
#152Earlier quoted context omitted.
The Chinese have apparently quit testing, so naturally it seems they have it 'under control' since they report zero new cases (detected). And the live-animal markets have produced disease before, every year in fact for decades, and not been 'cleaned up' so far. I have little confidence in any of that happening. I have no problem with the Chinese as people, but their current government is not to be admired.
> The Chinese have apparently quit testing, so naturally it seems they have it 'under control' since they report zero new cases (detected). That's patently untrue https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/coronavirus/bay-area-woman-f...
Foreigners only?
Re: Ask HN: How bad will the 2020 economic crisis be?
#153Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The Chinese have apparently quit testing, so naturally it seems they have it 'under control' since they report zero new cases (detected). That's patently untrue https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/coronavirus/bay-area-woman-f...
Foreigners only?
No, here's a report of an indigenous case:
https://www.shine.cn/news/nation/2003224819/
This is exactly what you expect to happen when efforts at containing the virus have been successful: the number of new cases gradually tapers off, until it reaches 0 or almost 0, and most new cases are due to people coming from areas of the world in which it's still raging.
The outbreak started earlier in China, and it's thus unsurprising to see that they reached this point earlier than in other countries.
Re: Ask HN: How bad will the 2020 economic crisis be?
#154Earlier quoted context omitted.
How can UK see less numbers than Italy when they imposed a cuarantine much later at the exponential curve? It's just impossible mathematically
These are very different cultures. London allows to work from home, or to be off work when sick, and does not force employees to shake hand or hug as a matter of courtesy. Besides, the UK didn't quarantine officially much later than Italy. Not to mention that the the larger corporations instructed employees to work from home week(s) before the official lockdown.
nice story, take a look at the London subway today around the news and social media that falsifies all your hopes. Welcome to the harsh reality and good luck.
Re: Ask HN: How bad will the 2020 economic crisis be?
#155Earlier quoted context omitted.
These are very different cultures. London allows to work from home, or to be off work when sick, and does not force employees to shake hand or hug as a matter of courtesy. Besides, the UK didn't quarantine officially much later than Italy. Not to mention that the the larger corporations instructed employees to work from home week(s) before the official lockdown.
nice story, take a look at the London subway today around the news and social media that falsifies all your hopes. Welcome to the harsh reality and good luck.
I work in Canary Wharf, the financial district. All the major companies with a skyscraper have their employees working from home now. Quite a few have been doing it for weeks not waiting for the official lockdown. It is a ghost town now.
Re: Ask HN: How bad will the 2020 economic crisis be?
#156We of working age need to be thinking of ourselves a the rebuilders. Let’s get through this, support each other, and be doing everything we can to be ready to spring back into economic action when COVID gets under control. I think it’s entirely up to the people’s response. The spirit of the country (and govt policies) will determine more about what happens after then pure economics can tell us. I personally don’t thi…
Yes. I guess the post-WW2 rebuilds of Germany and Japan are good examples of this.
Re: Ask HN: How bad will the 2020 economic crisis be?
#157Earlier quoted context omitted.
How can giving money to people resurrect demand if people aren't buying anything right now?
People aren't buying anything because they don't have any money or they are in fear of not having a paycheck sometime down the road.
There are plenty of people buying plenty of necessities. That being said, if your job is not essential prepare to be laid off and without work for a long time.
Re: Ask HN: How bad will the 2020 economic crisis be?
#158Earlier quoted context omitted.
Being fired is not a death sentence.
For some people it is. It depends on their level in the food chain, and - if they're near the bottom - their willingness to take criminal risks.
Occasionally, yes? It remains unhelpfully melodramatic to talk about layoffs as equivalent to murder.
Our society has a variety of safety nets to prevent this from being the case. It might need more or better safety nets! You can make this case! Nevertheless, I would opine that it works better when this happens at the government level (paying someone unemployment insurance) rather than at the firm level, for a variety of reasons.
Re: Ask HN: How bad will the 2020 economic crisis be?
#159Some thoughts: - Short term we need government to step in and avoid a large-scale meltdown of businesses that would be more catastrophic than the virus itself. This will likely involve taking equity stakes in airlines etc. Warren Buffet might also be willing to help here again, he has 128 billion USD saved up for times like these :) - Stock market likely hasn't seen the bottom yet. There will be more deleveraging and…
That's a joke. Big airlines are terrible businesses, Warren Buffet would never invest on them like this, unless he has gone insane. Also, those billions is from Berkshire, they won't invest the money of their shareholders into bad businesses, I don't see that happening.
Second thing is that you suppose that there will be forever lockdowns. We're only having it because the current health system isn't able to handle all the patients given this exponential spread. Once we finally manage to handle it well and enough people get infected and cured(yes, it is also important). We will move on... until we find a new kind of virus.
Re: Ask HN: How bad will the 2020 economic crisis be?
#160Hopefully everyone will keep in mind that bailouts should go to the citizenry at large to resurrect demand, not to large multinationals which need to pay off debt they should have never incurred in the first place (and which was spent on high-risk growth projects or shareholder buybacks). "Take Boeing. The aerospace giant of course wants a $60 billion bailout. Financial problems for this corporation predated the cris…
Boeing's market cap is $54 billion. They need $60 billion??
Politically connected people don’t have to abide the economics they require us to abide