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Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

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Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#151

Post by scottlocklin »

pmoriarty wrote: post #16

I've heard an epidemiologist say that if a vaccine becomes available in 18 months it'll be a record. Experimental treatments are being researched, but with only very small numbers of patients. It'll take quite some time for those treatments to become widely available. It's unlikely that we're going to even begin to see things return to normal in a month or even three of isolation, especially if that isolation isn't a…

> I've heard an epidemiologist say that if a vaccine becomes available in 18 months it'll be a record.

Your epidemiologist should talk to a chemist or look at a wikipedia entry. In 1957, the H2N2 pandemic vaccine was available in 3 months. Still managed to kill a few million people.

https://www.globalsecurity.org/security/ops/hsc-scen-3_pande...

https://www.city-journal.org/1957-asian-flu-pandemic

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#152

Post by lokedhs »

aqme28 wrote: post #9

I thought this interview was illuminating for post-lockdown life in China https://twitter.com/MikeIsaac/status/1238604080571772928?s=2... It shows just how far behind we are. TLDW: Temperature checks everywhere. Fever clinics optimized for quarantining the potentially infected. China is trying to actually contain the virus. The only way out for us unless we significantly ramp up testing and lockdown is to admit defea…

Singapore is doing the same. At first I thought their response was a bit excessive with the temperature checks in every office building, etc

However, even though the borders are now heavily restricted, inside the country most things goes on as normal. There are fewer people out, but I'm still having trouble finding parking at the mall for example.

Of course this may not last, and at some point we might see a huge increase in the number of cases, but the total daily new cases has been low until now.

I'd take that an indicator that the strategy works, at least as a tool to slow down the spread.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#153

Post by netsharc »

smoyer wrote: post #18
smacktoward wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The only way out for us unless we significantly ramp up testing and lockdown is to admit defeat and simply optimize for slowing down the onslaught. This has already happened. “Flatten the curve” takes it as written that most people will be exposed to the virus, and thus aims instead to just spread those exposures over a long enough period to avoid overwhelming the health care system.

I saw a statistical analysis of the flatten the curve idea but assuming we couldn't ramp up the number of intensive care beds, it took 3600 days to fit everyone in under the "available health care" line. It's still a good strategy for right now because it gives us some extra time to ramp testing and healthcare up.

Yeah, I noticed the flatten the curve graphs have a horizontal line about "available beds". It probably also represents available healthcare workers, equipment, etc. Surely this line can be made to move. E.g. when China sent a plane with doctors and equipment to Italy. Or simpler, find suitable buildings and make hospitals out of them (easier said than done, obviously).

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#154

Post by falcor84 »

mirimir wrote: post #124
kstenerud wrote: post #13

It's your typical pandemic response: - denial - placating measures - minor lockdowns - major lockdowns and panic (running to the store to stockpile toilet paper, for some reason) - total quarantine - life slowly returns to normal China is now on the final stage (restaurants and stores reopening, etc), with the rest of the world between 2 and 3 months behind. Most people are unable to comprehend exponential growth, so…

> - major lockdowns and panic (running to the store to stockpile toilet paper, for some reason) Americans use lots of toilet paper.

To save others like myself the time, here are some figures corroborating this on statista: https://www.statista.com/chart/15676/cmo-toilet-paper-consum...

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#155

Post by marcosdumay »

adventured wrote: post #98
dhosek wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's summer in Australia and South Africa. They're still seeing spread. I wouldn't count on that.

Is there any information on how many of the ~377 Australian cases originated outside versus inside their borders? I can't find much on that figure. South Africa only has 62 cases and New Zealand only has 8 cases. Not much there yet.

Well, in Brazil it's officially known that there has been domestic transmission in both São Paulo (that has been cold, much like a summer in North Europe) and Rio de Janeiro (that has been quite hot on the last few days).

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#156

Post by mirimir »

falcor84 wrote: post #154
mirimir wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> - major lockdowns and panic (running to the store to stockpile toilet paper, for some reason) Americans use lots of toilet paper.

To save others like myself the time, here are some figures corroborating this on statista: https://www.statista.com/chart/15676/cmo-toilet-paper-consum...

Thanks. Didn't know it was that bad.

I also suspect that most US consumer toilet paper is fluffier than the non US norm, with far fewer sheets per roll. So the 90g per roll conversion is misleading.

My favorite institutional style paper comes in 1000 sheet rolls, which weigh 187g. The consumer brand that I recently bought comes in 220 sheet rolls, which weigh 106g.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#157

Post by rtkwe »

smoyer wrote: post #18
smacktoward wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The only way out for us unless we significantly ramp up testing and lockdown is to admit defeat and simply optimize for slowing down the onslaught. This has already happened. “Flatten the curve” takes it as written that most people will be exposed to the virus, and thus aims instead to just spread those exposures over a long enough period to avoid overwhelming the health care system.

I saw a statistical analysis of the flatten the curve idea but assuming we couldn't ramp up the number of intensive care beds, it took 3600 days to fit everyone in under the "available health care" line. It's still a good strategy for right now because it gives us some extra time to ramp testing and healthcare up.

The actual required time is probably much lower than that. Not everyone who gets the virus needs critical care so what we have to do is keep those numbers below the healthcare capacity line.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#158

Post by rtkwe »

netsharc wrote: post #153
smoyer wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I saw a statistical analysis of the flatten the curve idea but assuming we couldn't ramp up the number of intensive care beds, it took 3600 days to fit everyone in under the "available health care" line. It's still a good strategy for right now because it gives us some extra time to ramp testing and healthcare up.

Yeah, I noticed the flatten the curve graphs have a horizontal line about "available beds". It probably also represents available healthcare workers, equipment, etc. Surely this line can be made to move. E.g. when China sent a plane with doctors and equipment to Italy. Or simpler, find suitable buildings and make hospitals out of them (easier said than done, obviously).

The issue is the people who need to be hospitalized in the worst cases go on to require ventilation to force air into their lungs and those machines have a limited supply. On top of that people on ventilation require pretty close observation so you need about 3:1 patient to nurse ratio. Those are the numbers that are hardest to increase rapidly, nurses and ventilator equipment.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#159

Post by 8bitsrule »

adaisadais wrote: post #75

I remember all of the statistical problems centered around virality that we would have to do in college. The problems always seemed so make-believe and dystopian. Now my company is close to going out of business and I have just been laid off. Partly due to high-ranking officials not believing in the virality of nCov-19. I can't get W.B. Yeats "The Second Coming" from 1919 out of my head: "Turning and turning in the w…

Yeats, hunh? No; give me Omar

The Moving Finger writes; and, having writ,

Moves on: nor all your Piety nor Wit

Shall lure it back to cancel half a Line,

Nor all your Tears wash out a Word of it

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