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Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

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Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#141

Post by DANmode »

jondwillis wrote: post #102
coffeecoders wrote: post #59

My prediction: 2026 looks normal. AI stays the top story but in a boring way as novelty wears off and models get cheaper and faster (maybe even more embedded). No AGI moment. LLMs start feeling like databases or cloud compute. No SpaceX or OpenAI IPO moment. Capital markets quietly reward the boring winners instead. S&P 500 grinds out another double digit year, mostly because earnings keep up and alternatives still l…

So, 2025 again, gotcha.

You’re better than most at tuning out geopolitical news if you found this year stable.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#142

Post by DANmode »

johnwheeler wrote: post #65
coffeecoders wrote: post #59

My prediction: 2026 looks normal. AI stays the top story but in a boring way as novelty wears off and models get cheaper and faster (maybe even more embedded). No AGI moment. LLMs start feeling like databases or cloud compute. No SpaceX or OpenAI IPO moment. Capital markets quietly reward the boring winners instead. S&P 500 grinds out another double digit year, mostly because earnings keep up and alternatives still l…

To me, this is wishful thinking. The more I see these "our jobs are safe" claims, the more I fear our jobs are not safe, and people are just trying to convince themselves which is an indicator of turmoil ahead.

Who is “our”?

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#143

Post by DANmode »

Sammi wrote: post #116
anonzzzies wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am in a hospital ward on a ward floor: everyone, every single person, every age, is scrolling 30s AI 'funny and cute' videos 247. It is quite eye opening as I never saw this close enough to actually see what they are doing. I asked why: they say it is funny, entertaining and if there has been no humans involved, they don't care as it is entertaining and fun: they rather have more different than more original/human.…

I don't remember Black Mirror writing this episode. But I didn't watch the latest season either.

Still generating.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#144

Post by DANmode »

anonzzzies wrote: post #108
ksaj wrote: post #8

YouTube will be so inundated by AI cat and dog videos that people stop watching them altogether. People will automatically assume anything labeled "cute" is fake.

I am in a hospital ward on a ward floor: everyone, every single person, every age, is scrolling 30s AI 'funny and cute' videos 247. It is quite eye opening as I never saw this close enough to actually see what they are doing. I asked why: they say it is funny, entertaining and if there has been no humans involved, they don't care as it is entertaining and fun: they rather have more different than more original/human.…

Do they…know…to any degree, that it’s AI?

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#145

Post by DANmode »

prepend wrote: post #52
ksaj wrote: post #8

YouTube will be so inundated by AI cat and dog videos that people stop watching them altogether. People will automatically assume anything labeled "cute" is fake.

My mom sends me AI videos of cute cats doing the impossible (flying around the room, washing raccoons, etc). When I told her they were AI, she said “so what, they’re cute”

Say more.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#146

Post by diamondfist25 »

fuzzythinker wrote: post #101
MichaelNolan wrote: post #87

Most to least confident: 1. Bazel is still not widely used outside of massive monorepos. (because its such a pain to use) 2. Solar power will surpass wind power in the US to become the 4th largest source of electricity. https://eia.languagelatte.com/ 3. Starship begins launching real payloads, achieves reusability of the upper stage, and successfully does a ship to ship fuel transfer. 4. Tesla stock has a major corre…

> 20% is not a major correction. It just recently doubled. Even at price before it doubled wasn't considered undervalued, so anything < 66% down is not a major correction.

What dope are u smoking?

Fsd is fantastic and works everywhere

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#147

Post by DANmode »

A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 wrote: post #89

So far.. my track record has not been great, but maybe I was being a little too optimistic as I shuffle various futures in my head so lets start from more likely to more fun: - Unabated push towards 'Snow Crash' level of extremely localized power structures at the expense of federal government ( think K shaped economy, but for governmental structures ) - Actual further descent into K shaped economy -- that.. I fear..…

Why is Bitcoin crashing?

Also, sometimes headlines claim 11% down is crashing - what’s “crashing” here?

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#148

Post by anonzzzies »

DANmode wrote: post #144
anonzzzies wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am in a hospital ward on a ward floor: everyone, every single person, every age, is scrolling 30s AI 'funny and cute' videos 247. It is quite eye opening as I never saw this close enough to actually see what they are doing. I asked why: they say it is funny, entertaining and if there has been no humans involved, they don't care as it is entertaining and fun: they rather have more different than more original/human.…

Do they…know…to any degree, that it’s AI?

I told some of them and they said so what basically. But I guess many indeed really do not know. It is incredibly obvious but if its funny, I guess people will just laugh and not be critical.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#149

Post by DANmode »

nearlyepic wrote: post #110
techgnosis wrote: post #62

* Americans will get their first taste of extended range EVs (full EV powertrain with a tiny ICE that charges the battery) and they explode in popularity. It's the perfect vehicle for the US and most investment in EV charging stations will decrease. * Oral GLP-1s hit the market and the market shares doubles * Both OpenAI and SpaceX IPO * Charlie Kirk's shooter will be executed after being on death row for less than a…

> Americans will get their first taste of extended range EVs (full EV powertrain with a tiny ICE that charges the battery) and they explode in popularity. This happened, it was called the Chevy Volt. Nobody bought it.

Horrific whitewashing of the story.

Chevy made it about as fuckin’ unattractive as they could manage,

AND THEY WERE STILL GREAT CARS.

You can buy them at the right price even today, and people have been adding range to them.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#150

Post by hamburgererror »

coffeecoders wrote: post #59

My prediction: 2026 looks normal. AI stays the top story but in a boring way as novelty wears off and models get cheaper and faster (maybe even more embedded). No AGI moment. LLMs start feeling like databases or cloud compute. No SpaceX or OpenAI IPO moment. Capital markets quietly reward the boring winners instead. S&P 500 grinds out another double digit year, mostly because earnings keep up and alternatives still l…

> If you mute politics and social media noise, 2026 probably looks like one of those years that we later remember as "stable" in retrospect.

I love this, we focus way too much on the apparent chaos of daily life. Any news seems like a big wave that announces something bigger and we spend our time (especially here!) imagining the tsunami to come. Then later, we realize that most events are just unimportant to the point we forgot about them.

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