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Ask HN: GPT4 Broke Me

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Re: Ask HN: GPT4 Broke Me

#141

Post by thaway_thaway34 »

halfmatthalfcat wrote: post #130
thaway_thaway34 wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, yeah, like I said I have been using it to build several projects. My productivity definitely went up at least by a factor of 5 by a safe estimate. This is amazing, all good, yeah. But doesnt that mean companies need 5x fewer people?

I don't think you should even been playing those mind games with yourself. Focus on what you can control which is leveraging the tools available to you and have some grounded perspective. There's a lot of noise. There's also a bunch of coincidental events happening simultaneously (economy, post-covid recovery, company right sizing, etc) that are obscuring things.

hmm, actually thank you man. perhaps, you're right. I didn't see them as playing mind games with myself. I always thought of it as planning for the worst. But it is certainly a debilitating habit.

Re: Ask HN: GPT4 Broke Me

#142

Post by brandall10 »

ljm wrote: post #138
brandall10 wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Now, with LLMs, a single system architect/senior developer might be able to do the work of a five person consultancy alone. You might not be able to charge five times as much - but perhaps three times for the same or fewer hours worked?" This is the point that underscores why the OP is stressing out, and it really is underselling the value GPT adds. Ignore a consultancy. Consider a team of 5 you might be on. Esp. fo…

With that amount of experience I imagine GPT is explaining stuff you already know and is thus saving you time. For something completely novel, or as someone with little experience, it’s going to be harder to get that kind of result in terms of understanding the requirements, writing the prompt, and comprehending the output.

It's something I have little experience with, or at least, it's not in the domain of skills I've used in years and certainly not with the type of tooling I'm using. At a high level I do have good knowledge of what I'm trying to build and how it should operate though. Like I said, it probably would take me about a week unassisted, mostly due to a fair amount of reading and experimentation.

Re: Ask HN: GPT4 Broke Me

#144

Post by brandall10 »

e12e wrote: post #131
brandall10 wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Now, with LLMs, a single system architect/senior developer might be able to do the work of a five person consultancy alone. You might not be able to charge five times as much - but perhaps three times for the same or fewer hours worked?" This is the point that underscores why the OP is stressing out, and it really is underselling the value GPT adds. Ignore a consultancy. Consider a team of 5 you might be on. Esp. fo…

> Boom, less engineers needed to produce novel products or features, more engineers on the market, depressed wages. Possibly. But software is funny - increased software productivity tends increase demand for software. Perhaps the job market will be saturated, but perhaps the market will simply grow.

Addressed in the following paragraph of that post. Certainly possible, but likely the result will be a ton of new startups than larger tech companies ballooning their ranks - as this gets better, those will either stay the same or be reduced. IOW, the fat big tech comp the OP is stressing over won't really be a thing at scale anymore. Time will tell, but that's my prediction.

Re: Ask HN: GPT4 Broke Me

#145

Post by InfamousRece »

derelicta wrote: post #9

Don't wanna make you feel worse but a friend of mine and nearly 20% of the company got fired a few days ago. CEO's justification? "We don't need you anymore, we will compensate your loss with chat-gpt & co. It's nothing personal, just business". To this day I can't tell whenever CEO's reasons were just outright lies, or if he genuinely thinks he can replace a fifth of his workplace just like that.

We had a similar event a couple of months ago. After the layoffs the remaining employees were told to increase the productivity (do more with less) by utilizing GPT. Of course there will be no increase of compensation. The real cause of layoffs were financial, GPT is just an excuse to fend off complaints of (now overworked) employees.

Re: Ask HN: GPT4 Broke Me

#146

Post by nurettin »

tomlue wrote: post #101
nurettin wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are limits to what the current hardware can achieve. That said, a theoretical gpt8 that displays reasoning skills several orders of magnitude better than gpt4 still has to work within the tools and boundaries set by the existing frameworks and it still be using input from existing pieces of work. And a person who is not an expert at using those frameworks and familiar with existing state of the art will not be…

Yes they will, a more capable chatgpt will do more than give you code to copy/paste, it will directly interact with your infrastructure, git repositories, etc. Even if it didn't, the capacity for a developer to learn all the frameworks just got much much greater, which is a bad thing for developer salaries.

For newer tools: maybe.

But 20 years of experience vs. some schmuck who is right out of the coding bootcamp, vs. guy with gpt4 prompt.

(of course it depends on the situation, but the point stands)

Re: Ask HN: GPT4 Broke Me

#147

Post by constantcrying »

mclightning wrote: post #123
me_me_me wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

... or people who don't need that experience to now compete against you.

why are people in such a denial on this point, makes me mad... the same field who has the most imposter syndrome rants, also has most people who think they can't be replaced by someone with less experience equipped with AI. Everyone is talking about the junior, mid-tier programmer who will replaced, but not themselves. It just sounds like willful ignorance.

>who think they can't be replaced by someone with less experience equipped with AI.

Because in a shrinking market experiece + AI is vastly superior to little experience + AI.

Experience is becoming more important, since experience is required for the tasks AI is very bad at. AI is drastically increasing the barrier to entry, since it can do many of the things entry level people are/were useful for, but it can't do any of the things experienced people get payed for.

ChatGPT can not tell you which API changes to your 1M SLOC code base are helpful for the future interests of your corporation. It won't talk to management about technical challenges in demanded features or which hirings are neccesarry to be on time with future projects.

Re: Ask HN: GPT4 Broke Me

#148

Post by naveen99 »

BizarreByte wrote: post #120
naveen99 wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

LOL, I don’t think so. If LLM’s fail, they will have to fail on their own. probably programmers will get more competition from non-programmer humans leveraging LLM’s. but we have been saying everyone should learn to code for a while. Job on its way to being accomplished.

You don't think the law could basically make them infeasible? Right now they rely on leeching off content generated by real humans. Cut that off and they're going to have issues even training them. Get something by Disney included in the training data by mistake and just watch what happens.

I don’t think god can stop it now, not disney, not the lawyers, not even the communists.

Your best hope is LLM’s in the current state aren’t enough, and we need to wait for another algorithmic leap or a lot more computational power improvements before we get to human level.

Re: Ask HN: GPT4 Broke Me

#149

Post by leke »

I was speaking to a lead dev today. He said he thought the biggest risk AI poised was to junior devs. He currently gives specs to junior devs who do the work and then he reviews it. He thinks it's nearly possible to give the specs to AI, it does the work, he reviews it. So maybe no more need for junior devs. He thinks this is especially possible when AI has access to your whole framework and product.

Re: Ask HN: GPT4 Broke Me

#150

Post by [deleted] »

Xenoamorphous wrote: post #54
codingdave wrote: post #13

The more I use GPT, the less I'm worried. It is a tool, and a good one, but not a replacement for the thought required to design an app that will function, scale, and have good UX to result in a marketable product. So use it and enjoy its benefits while letting it help you perform even better. As far as everything else you've said... oof, you need a break. You seem focused on money and ego. Maybe it is time to simpli…

> The more I use GPT, the less I'm worried I'm curious, as I see quite a few people saying this. You might not be worried about GPT4, but aren't you at least a little concerned about GPT8 or whatever? Just having a post like this a mere 5 years ago would've been unthinkable yet here we are.

[deleted]
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