Ask HN: What tech companies/industries will do well in a recession?

Post by screye » Wed, Apr 27, 2022, 9:55 PM UTC

yobbo wrote: post #122

screye wrote: post #113

Speaking of a recession, I hope the recession isn't another massive redistribution of wealth into the hands of an older generation. Housing has continued shooting up, as those in the 30s find themselves with fewer assets to buy it with. The low interest rates amortize the costs allowing affordability, but the older generation still gets a massive payout. Then when the economy start recovering back up, the older gener…

> The low interest rates amortize the costs allowing affordability Negative real interest rates devalues income from work and up-values ownership of assets. Inflation is not in the interest of workers. > housing prices and interest rates will back down to normal sometime soon. Mortgage rates needs to rise until the real interest rate is positive - ie interest rate is greater or equal than housing appreciation.

Post by iancmceachern » Wed, Apr 27, 2022, 10:47 PM UTC

lamontcg wrote: post #115

Don't invest for the winners in the recession. Invest near the depths of the recession for the winners of the recovery where everything looks like its on a firesale. The problem is of course timing the bottom. And resisting the emotional urge to think nothing could ever recover. The 2020 extraordinarily V-shaped recovery surprised me a lot. Given that nothing financial is really popping that hard and a lot of the hea…

Post by jallen_dot_dev » Wed, Apr 27, 2022, 11:14 PM UTC

Melatonic wrote: post #97

tubalcain wrote: post #80

I suppose we could also frame the question as which tech companies and industries will NOT do well during the recession. I think that streaming services will not do well. People will return to torrenting and piracy. Same with crypto trading platforms. Basically any place where Joe Average can't afford to spend more than he has on hand. Tesla will see a big drop too, as people will cash out to buy their groceries. As…

I would disagree - when average Joe loses his job due to a recession they are going to need some form of entertainment to fill their now wide-open schedule. People here might find torrenting and piracy pretty trivial but the average Joe is going to find it a much bigger hurdle than simply logging into Netflix and pressing go.

Post by giantg2 » Wed, Apr 27, 2022, 11:18 PM UTC

Melatonic wrote: post #119

laverix wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But how does average Joe pay for the account, if the prices for groceries, electricity, heating and transportation explode? If things go really south, average joe will be happy if he can afford food and heat his rented flat at least a little bit in winter.

He probably will keep paying for a single service he really likes and share it with a bunch of people/family and split the costs. But yeah of course if it is between beans and rice and Netflix the person is gonna choose food. But that would be extreme poverty

Post by giantg2 » Wed, Apr 27, 2022, 11:24 PM UTC

kodah wrote: post #19

Companies that cater mostly to luxury clients Anything energy related. Geography also plays an important role. Places like the valley saw very little impact while the place I was living at in the South basically had it's software ecosystem gutted. It did bounce back within a year though, so just make sure you have enough funds to ride a recession out in the worst case.