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Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

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Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#141

Post by maratc »

The futurologists think that most people would just stop buying cars altogether.

Once there is a self-driving (electric) car that you can order from your phone and that will — cheaply! — take you from point A to point B, the need in owning a car will (mostly) disappear.

The people would stop being car buyers. Instead, robo-taxi companies will buy most of the cars. For these, there would be no need in brands or marketing; some of them would just assemble and service their own fleets from readily-available parts, similar to how Amazon/Google/Microsoft self-assemble their own cloud servers (instead of buying them from Dell/HP).

Some people would still want to own their cars, like today some people own horses. They would be a negligible minority. There, it's likely that at least some of the manufacturers would be those who still don't exist today; they would disregard the no-longer-relevant mechanics (internal combustion engine, gearbox, etc.) and focus on overall end-user experience while utilizing readily-available parts.

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#142

Post by decafninja »

genericone wrote: post #119
ak217 wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am not a fan of Elon's more exotic behaviors but I think Tesla is as committed to excellence in manufacturing as Toyota or Honda. They are just at an earlier growth stage where they have to stand up processes from scratch. Toyota and Honda have a reputation for reliability, but it is by no means a given. Toyota had to low key rebuild a division after the unintended acceleration scandal. Honda has had persistent iss…

Toyota and Honda, being Japanese companies, also treat their older employees as indispensable, and keep them on typically for a lifetime. The institutional knowledge that these employees have is beyond invaluable. Having experienced older employees on the floor and the lab allows them to sidestep a lot of what might be called "obvious issues at a glance that can be fixed in an hour" to an older employee, that would o…

I think it works from the other side too. Many Japanese employees have come to expect a system of lifetime employment and do not tend to jump ship as easily or often as say, American employees. Even if this means lower compensation, the stability is considered to be a better factor.

Except for some of the earliest employees who are literally invested into the company, will Tesla really have "lifers"? Even amongst these, I think most of them will act in a much more mercenary way (both in terms of compensation, as well as career ambitions) than their analogues at Toyota or Honda.

On the opposite side, I don't think many of the non-Japanese employees and executives at a Toyota or Honda expect their gig to be lifetime employment either.

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#143

Post by decafninja »

sokoloff wrote: post #7

For years now, you could buy a VW Touareg, Audi Q7, or Porsche Cayenne all built on a common platform. The three vehicles are still readily distinguishable in the market and driving experience.

Haven't driven anything on that tier, but I've driven the Macan and Q5 family. Despite being on the same platform, they drive quite differently. The Macan could probably shame a lot of so-called "sports cars".

The next generation Macan is supposed to be entirely EV. I'm interested what Porsche will do to make it enjoyable to drive. As it stands my next car (this year) will probably be a Tesla Model 3 of some trim, but we'd probably be giving an EV Macan a serious look as the replacement to our CUV.

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#144

Post by jjtheblunt »

kwhitefoot wrote: post #128
at_a_remove wrote: post #64

I think that you can take all of the differentiators that exist for ICE vehicles (price, reliability, status ...) and then add in some new factors: 1) Range anxiety 2) Recharge concerns (plays into range anxiety) 3) Novel technology fears (will my trusted mechanic of twenty years be able to handle this or am I stuck with the dealership?) 4) "Handling" -- will this drive like my old ICE car? Apparently a major irritat…

Range anxiety regarding electric vehicles seems to be something that mostly afflicts those who do not have an EV. I have a 2015 Model S 70D with a range of about 330 km. In the three years and 70 thousand km that I have been driving it I have had only three occasions when I was anxious about the range. Most new EVs have better range than that so most buyers of new EVs from now on should have even less reason to be co…

> Range anxiety...

it also affects early buyers who knew it, like our 2014 BMW i3's range, original small battery, is around 70 miles.

I imagine range anxiety is a function of total battery capacity, to your point somewhat. But my 70 miles (or so) range means i have to be very aware where i can recharge.

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#145

Post by asdff »

DennisP wrote: post #126
asdff wrote: post #103

Arguably were are already there. Every car on the market gets to the speed limit quick enough and gets about the same MPG, so therefore cars are already in this nike shoe to balenciaga state, since the actual added performance functionality you get in the porsche today is useless, dangerous, and illegal except on private tracks (and maybe 1% of owners will bring their cars to one of these, far more will drive their c…

Let's not overlook Tesla's acceleration, range, and Supercharger network. Other makers will catch up eventually but for now, those factors make a lot of buyers overlook fit and finish.

Tesla isn't competing against an electric car, though, it's competing against the upper middle class consumer's gas car. Against this car, probably a lexus or 3 series thereabouts, the Tesla is not a good bargain unless you are interested in having an electric car for the sake of that alone.

It being some green choice itself is dubious, considering how much gas and coal is still used in the electric grid and how this car still produces particulate pollution from brake and tire dust, and the fact that you've just brought multiple tons of rare earth materials from around the world together to do the same job the $2000 used corolla that already exists locally at your neighborhood used car lot does, or even a moped for some, only with a higher perceived social standing. The acceleration is on par with the rest of it's class, the range is decent, and the supercharger network is good but still much less convenient than filling up at a gas station, and there's been times on my travels where even the distance between gas stations was dangerously few and far in between.

Imo the worse problem for the car wasn't that we powered it with gas, it was that we insisted on using a vehicle weighing 3000lbs to move our 200lb selves. It doesn't matter how green your energy source is when only 6% of it is used to actually move you, and there are externalities just from the weight alone (the brakes and tires required to stop 3200lbs vs 200lbs e.g. on a bicycle and their associated pollution, the cost to the earth forging these 3000lbs of metal).

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#146

Post by zhobbs »

dreamcompiler wrote: post #110
bin_bash wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The new Corvette is as fast as the 911 for half the price but that's not stopping people from buying 911s

Another data point: Tesla Model 3 Performance version will go 0-60 in 3.1 seconds (not quite as fast as the Corvette's 2.9) for $52k; about $10k less than the Corvette.

Just a small correction, Model 3 performance starts at $56k. I don't like that Tesla lists price with $4.3k in "fuel savings" subtracted out, we have to call them out on that.

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#147

Post by decafninja »

asdff wrote: post #145
DennisP wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let's not overlook Tesla's acceleration, range, and Supercharger network. Other makers will catch up eventually but for now, those factors make a lot of buyers overlook fit and finish.

Tesla isn't competing against an electric car, though, it's competing against the upper middle class consumer's gas car. Against this car, probably a lexus or 3 series thereabouts, the Tesla is not a good bargain unless you are interested in having an electric car for the sake of that alone. It being some green choice itself is dubious, considering how much gas and coal is still used in the electric grid and how this…

I agree with this. Most people looking at say, a Model 3, are not cross shopping it vs. say, a Chevy Bolt or Nissan Leaf. Seems like they are more cross shopping vs. a BMW 3 series or Benz C class.

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#148

Post by moftz »

fiftyfifty wrote: post #139
neogodless wrote: post #29

56 million cars sold last year. How many do you think were bought because they do not create emissions, or because of any serious consideration of the engineering behind them? People buy a Toyota Corolla or Prius because it's below the median price, reliable and efficient. They will buy it and then never think about it again because it'll "just work." People buy a Ford F150 because they either have some real use for…

I think several of your categories nailed what the vast majority of car owners are looking for: an transportation appliance. This is where I think EVs will eventually dominate the market, the only thing you will have to worry about is plugging it in. The simplicity of the electric drive train will make them even more reliable (and efficient) than the best gas vehicles today. No more oil changes. No more random fluid…

That last point might still be the case. Forget to plug your car in overnight and suddenly you don't have enough mileage to get to work. Not everyone will have access at home to a fast charger so the option will be to slow charge over a 110V extension cord or go wait at a public charger that might be a little out of the way from your commute.

I'm definitely ready for an EV but my car sits in a parking lot at home (for at least a couple more years) rather than a driveway or garage and my work has no chargers. It seems kind a dumb decision right now to purchase an EV only to rely on availability public charging stations. I guess that's kind of what I do now with regards to filling up on gas, I don't own my own gas pump at home. But, I know where to reliably find fuel that I can pay for. Maybe gas stations can start to offer charging stations for a small fee. They would be competing with grocery stores that offer free charging but I'd imagine the free part will go away quickly once there is major demand for a public charger.

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#149

Post by decafninja »

zhobbs wrote: post #146
dreamcompiler wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Another data point: Tesla Model 3 Performance version will go 0-60 in 3.1 seconds (not quite as fast as the Corvette's 2.9) for $52k; about $10k less than the Corvette.

Just a small correction, Model 3 performance starts at $56k. I don't like that Tesla lists price with $4.3k in "fuel savings" subtracted out, we have to call them out on that.

Comparing something closer, the Model 3 Performance is significantly cheaper than the BMW M3.

I recall the old (pre2021 facelift) Model 3 Performance either beat or performed very competitively to its various petrol competitors (M3, C63, RS5, Guilia QF, etc.) while being significantly less expensive.

Would be interesting how the facelifted Model 3 Performance fares against the new hog-nose G80 BMW M3/4. Or the upcoming 4cylinder+electricmotor C63AMG.

Now people complain that the Model 3 doesn't have the "soul" to be a true driver's car of course.

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#150

Post by andrepd »

asdff wrote: post #103

Arguably were are already there. Every car on the market gets to the speed limit quick enough and gets about the same MPG, so therefore cars are already in this nike shoe to balenciaga state, since the actual added performance functionality you get in the porsche today is useless, dangerous, and illegal except on private tracks (and maybe 1% of owners will bring their cars to one of these, far more will drive their c…

> since the actual added performance functionality you get in the porsche today is useless, dangerous, and illegal except on private tracks (and maybe 1% of owners will bring their cars to one of these, far more will drive their cars dangerously on public roads).

OT but I don't get why 400bhp cars with "race" suspensions are even road-legal. Why are cars not fitted with a speed limiter? Road accidents are a leading cause of death and injury, with 1,500,000 people killed annually (or a jumbo jet going down with 340 passengers every 2h). Yet we allow cars that dramatically increase risks and increase pollution (any car with over ~100bhp/ton really only uses the extra power by breaking the law). At the same time we spend billions in "manual" policing! Such inefficiency.

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