141–150 of 1001 posts
AI proves P != NP. The proof is 20K pages and not comprehensible by humans, who spend the next 30 years deciphering it, by which time the AI has proved the five remaining millennium problems. The AI elects to keep the Clay Prize money each time and donate it all to homeless chia pets, thus proving general-purpose AI is still a ways off.
I wish I could put my finger on it, but there is a huge disconnect between economic reality and the current financial situation across most of the world. It seems to me, perhaps simplistically, that every central bank is simply issuing money to generate growth and this can't be sustainable. Our biggest industry would appear to be buying, renting and selling assets to each other. My apartment overlooks a city of 1 mil…
* Remote work will be much more widespread / will be the norm at least in IT (very likely)
* Telemedicine will be widespread, AI automated medical diagnostics systems. (very likely)
* AI/automated lawyers (likely)
* AI/automated trading will become dominant
* More automation in the warehouses / factories / stores
* First manned mission to Mars (unlikely)
* Evidence of past life found on Venus (unlikely)
* Sea level rises by 10 cm. Climate warming although not very dramatic
* Oil extraction diminishes by 30% globally
* New privacy oriented businesses (protection of personal data, digital forensics, cyber detectives)
* New efficient method for capturing CO2 from atmosphere developed (towards the end of the decade)
* First asteroid harvested for ore
* Some forms of cancer can be cured effectively
* More remote mini wars/ military operations (using air drones, automated undersea vehicles, rovers)
* Lab grown meat is available to buy
* "3D printing" of simple tissues
* Personal medical monitoring devices (constantly monitoring heart rate, blood pressure, sugar level, ...)
* Development of NEWSPEAK (oh sorry digression)
* Lithium shortages / alternative battery technologies
* Very high digital storage capacities available at cheap price, although content starts to take more space
* End of monarchy in the UK
Maybe not this decade, but at latest in the 2030s, we (or our children) will look back on our current consumption patterns in utter disgust. For context: I live in a city in East Germany, and there is a tourist attraction called "Trabi Safari" where people can do sightseeing in Trabant cars (the East German model that according to folklore was made from cardboard). Whenever I walk down the street and a line of these…
• No new smartphones will contain SIM card slots.
• US government follows China's blockchain based Yuan in issuing a crypto based USD.
Here are mine: 1. Still no level 4/5 autonomous cars anywhere in sight. The promise of being "just around the corner" fizzles down and people just forget the hype. 2. Same with AI. The panacea hype dies down. No AGI at all. No major job losses due to AI automation. 3. Facebook (the SN) still exists but ages along with it's current user base. i.e it's the "old people's" SN. Facebook (the company) is still going strong…
Here are mine: 1. Still no level 4/5 autonomous cars anywhere in sight. The promise of being "just around the corner" fizzles down and people just forget the hype. 2. Same with AI. The panacea hype dies down. No AGI at all. No major job losses due to AI automation. 3. Facebook (the SN) still exists but ages along with it's current user base. i.e it's the "old people's" SN. Facebook (the company) is still going strong…
I have most reason to doubt 8. I think it'll mature, but I doubt a fully "standard" stack will come about. I suspect WASM will lead to a lot less stuff being done in JS.
* Cancer fatality rates plummet further as individualized care regimens continues to improve. Heart disease and diabetes-related complications are the two big killers
* No major action is done on climate change as society continues to fall into the boiling frog trap. The investment needed to tackle climate change is never made at a significant level.
* Outside of a coming recession, cities continue to attract the vast majority of new jobs, resulting in even more insane affordability problems. Remote work doesn't stem the tide.
* Bananas go extinct.
* Cloud providers remain wildly profitable, but meta-providers begin to put some pressure on the bottom line by dynamically provisioning resources based on cost between clouds.
* A moon base happens. Astronauts travel from the ISS to the moon every few months.
* SpaceX sends multiple unmanned missions to Mars to lay the groundwork for eventual human habitation. NASA announces the selection of its first crew to visit Mars in the 2030s.
* The ITER project produces the first net-positive fusion reaction in history. Elon Musk announces a new company to mass-produce reactors.
* Nothing is really done to address inequality. Populist violence breaks out in some European countries.
* A revenue-neutral carbon tax will be passed in the US.
Things I believe will stay the same: * Google, Amazon, Facebook, Apple will have roughly the same dominant positions. * Bitcoin will play roughly the same role it plays today (store of value, more like gold than money, similar mkt cap) * Machine learning continues to grow in usage and capability, but there will be no "revolution" in AI. * Nobody on Mars * No serious alternatives to advertisements will emerge for indu…
How do you mean? Do you mean as in they're all end-users rather than able to create things?
* There will be a recession that will ripple for longer than the last one
* Waymo will finally launch but have minimal impact in the US and will end up licensing the tech/partnering with car manufacturers to stay relevant.
* Apple will enter a tangential but highly profitable market most people won't see coming (think general mobility or communication device)
* Google will see a drop in Ad revenue and have a do-or-die moment about their longterm existence (they'll still be healthy tho)
* AI won't displace many jobs and we'll come up with another new term for fancy data science
* "AI" will be massively rolled out with poor oversight and lead to very bad outcomes on a large scale. People will revolt but not much will change.
* Global warming will be alive and well and people will still bicker about whether it is real.
* Africa will begin to make huge economic waves in partnership with China and the western world will panic/intervene
* We will still trade privacy for convenience amd FB will buy/launch a new product that crosses 1 billion users again
* We'll lose 1 of the GAFAM leaders to health/tragic occurence
* We won't be on Mars, but Elon Musk will pull of 2 new industry-moving changes
* China/Russia some other non-western superpower will undergo a significant political change. Won't quite be democracy but it will be different and effective
* Cars and many appliances will now be sold always connected ( 5G?) and there will be several privacy and security issues with no meaningful change.
* Snap will get bought