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Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

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131–140 of 219 posts

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#131
post #105

RISC-V based chips enter the high performance market. Everybody is somehow surprised.

Oh I would like so but I saw that the amount of compiler optimizations/optimizations in general for an architecture like arm or intel are so high that risc was unable to perform

I think I really like risc-v but I saw the performance and I am doubtful about this, so I am interested if you have any evidence/resources that I don't know of to back up this claim

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#132
post #90

Crypto, as an economic and innovation ecosystem, is largely dead, with the partial exception of stablecoins (which are not inherently “crypto” in the ideological/decentralized sense). The core issue is structural: most cryptocurrencies depend on foundations that fund development, marketing, and operations through large token holdings. When prices fall, these entities eventually become forced sellers. At some point, t…

Yup I had written a similar comment where I feel like stablecoins do seem to have a good idea but I still believe that the whole industry even with stablecoins would tend on becoming even more regulated and getting more integrated with centralized finance

I do feel like it would be centralized finance which would run stablecoins and not defi/crypto companies which would connect with/partner with centralized finance in my opinion tho.

Or as I said in that comment, the rise of finance superapps like coinbase so I feel like their stablecoins might be more of influence but either way, I do feel like its going to be extremely hard for people to enter the stablecoin market basically.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#133

End of the Russian/Ukranian war. US improves relations with China. Climate problems are shown to be less serious than previously thought. The rich get richer, but nobody cares because quality of life is improved for everybody. AI brings additional leisure time, which results in a worldwide resurgence in bluegrass music as millions take up the guitar, mandolin and violin. The biggest surge is in banjo, though. Billy S…

It's like Penn and Teller say: "Everyone thinks the world is getting worse, but it's always getting better." I hope you're right. Maybe it's just my age creeping up on me and turning me into a cynic. Anyway, good to know there's still people who think positively.

I think I am young but I do feel like we base our expectations of 2026 from 2025 which lets admit, was not good. I do not think that there would be sudden change from 2025 -> 2026 that could fundamentally change reality if the fundamentals stay the same which in my opinion they kinda would.

I do feel like 2026 would be like 2025 but just a little better maybe or little worse.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is that really a bad thing? It's like saying Google Maps makes you lazier, because you don't have to learn navigation. And, heck, why stop there: cars are just insanely lazy! You lose all the exercise benefits of walking.

Yes? It’s all true. It can be good in one axis and bad in another axis.

Why is losing the ability/interest in navigating through a paper map by hand bad, though?

Humanity has adopted and then discarded skills many times in its history. There were once many master archers, nobody outside of one crazy Danish guy has mastered archery for hundreds of years. That isn't bad, nobody cares, nothing of value was lost.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#136
post #98

This is less of a prediction, more of how I see this industry progressing. I really feel "web dev" is going to get highly commoditized by GenAI, by web dev I mean 99% of building CRUD-adjacent apps, we are already seeing it now with tools like Claude Code etc, this pipeline is just going to get more refined, with tigther testing feedback loops, PR-workflows and a CI/CD deployment pipeline which the GenAI will control…

Why can't GenAI produce good code for embedded systems? There is nothing fundamentally different between the 2. Seems like some form of nimbyism - "AI can't do what I can because I am special" sort of thing.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#137

There will be a cliff in the number of people in this industry. There will be a bunch of senior people floating around the job market and no more junior talent. There will be fewer new grads and the pipelines will dry up. If they go down the route of automating as much as possible, it'll destroy the social pipelines that allow companies to reproduce themselves. I don't think that'll actually happen, but it'll be inte…

What are your opinions on accepting junior talent say, 4 years from now? Would there be any changes because I feel like a lot of junior talent isnt picked because of AI but I feel like given a long enough timescope, AI bubble will burst and so taking that into account, what would you say about the job market?

Unless there is an exponential growth in model context AI is not replacing anything. So far every new model launches with some increase in advertised intelligence, but only with increasingly dubious ways to measure the same.

All the current crop of AI does is it makes the job of some people easier and allows some others to level up faster in terms output. If managements are going to be stupid enough to destroy the human side of the business, then they are only setting themselves up to spend much much more hiring the right people in the future.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#139

People's minds will become even lazier due to prolonged daily use of LLMs. They literally won't be able to think for themselves without AI assistance (that's why OpenAI won't fall, btw). Attention spans will drop even lower, causing severe psychological problems. Think 'Digital Dementia 2.0.' Later, LLMs will be portrayed as something evil, yet everyone will still use them. Parents will use them, while telling their…

I don't get this take. My knowledge and engineering has only gone up over time. I read significantly more and higher quality technical information and need to debug problems significantly harder. I think AI will in general make everyone a lot smarter. Maybe the people who use AI as a companion will melt? I'm sure there's some kind of repetitive addiction loop that could melt your brain just like anythibg else though.

Not everyone will be made smarter.

Just people like you.

There are other types.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#140

- Tech layoffs grow 100% YoY - Multiple interest rate cuts instead of 1 - News about prosecutions for insider trading on Polymarket. - Bitcoin will touch a multi-year low. MSTR becomes insolvent. - Google Gemini will overtake ChatGPT in DAU. - Software will be more commoditized and the authors’ “taste” will become its primary differentiator. - Fiserv will increase 50% or more in market cap (I said the same thing last…

I will take the Warren Buffett prediction seriously.
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