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Ask HN: Do you think this is the start of the new financial crisis?

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Re: Ask HN: Do you think this is the start of the new financial crisis?

#131

Post by shagymoe »

nwah1 wrote: post #129
shagymoe wrote: post #125

The emperor has no clothes. How many crises do we have to go through before we admit the fed and banks either have no idea what they are doing or they know exactly what they're doing and it's malevolent? The number of people here defending the system and saying this isn't inflation is mind boggling. Where do you think the money comes from when the government rescues banks? No matter how you slice it, the taxpayer pay…

Bitcoin regularly dives by orders of magnitude worse than the 2008 financial crisis. Angsty posting like this probably sounded really cool to people in high school, but I'm not sure why we should be impressed with your fact-free faux-radical grifterism.

The value of Bitcoin would not fluctuate wildly if it were the default currency. You're not even attempting to argue in good faith or imagine how things could be different.

What you call "angsty" is what I call "rational". I see you're happy to continue experiencing these crises which are, in fact, happening.

Also, I don't think you know what grifterism means, if that's even a word.

Re: Ask HN: Do you think this is the start of the new financial crisis?

#132

Post by mojo74 »

meghan_rain wrote: post #123

Note that this thread will have the same Danning-Kruger level of plausible but wrong info as would a banker forum discussing "do you think ChatGPT will be able to drive cars?".

Closest match I could find https://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forum/real-estate/chatgpt-in...

Re: Ask HN: Do you think this is the start of the new financial crisis?

#133

Post by radiator »

jnmandal wrote: post #97

I have no idea but I'm laughing because HN is almost always wrong about these things. I remember about a year back reading a thread here about the UN FAO food price index showing inflation and most of the responses were about how wrong it was to say that there was inflation, how it won't correlate with that index, etc, etc. The funniest thing about that thread, IMHO, was the surety and confidence of all the responses…

This, plus at that time you would be downvoted to extinction if you dared suggest that printing so many dollars will unavoidably bring inflation.

Re: Ask HN: Do you think this is the start of the new financial crisis?

#134

Post by shagymoe »

erlich wrote: post #130
shagymoe wrote: post #125

The emperor has no clothes. How many crises do we have to go through before we admit the fed and banks either have no idea what they are doing or they know exactly what they're doing and it's malevolent? The number of people here defending the system and saying this isn't inflation is mind boggling. Where do you think the money comes from when the government rescues banks? No matter how you slice it, the taxpayer pay…

Everyone in charge are already extremely wealthy. They have zero skin in the game. J. Powell, 50MM. Yellen, 20MM. There is no ability for them to empathize with a regular taxpayer. Whatever happens their lifestyle will not be impacted one bit. You have to ask: what drives someone in this position. And this is a question that only the 200k ultra high net individuals (30mm+) in the world can answer. I think people stop…

All good points. Let's remove the power to control money from these people.

Re: Ask HN: Do you think this is the start of the new financial crisis?

#135

Post by latchkey »

shagymoe wrote: post #131
nwah1 wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bitcoin regularly dives by orders of magnitude worse than the 2008 financial crisis. Angsty posting like this probably sounded really cool to people in high school, but I'm not sure why we should be impressed with your fact-free faux-radical grifterism.

The value of Bitcoin would not fluctuate wildly if it were the default currency. You're not even attempting to argue in good faith or imagine how things could be different. What you call "angsty" is what I call "rational". I see you're happy to continue experiencing these crises which are, in fact, happening. Also, I don't think you know what grifterism means, if that's even a word.

HN can't think past price goes up/down and see that a lot of crypto is a valuable resource that you can use as collateral and borrow against it without having to go to a bank and beg for permission.

Re: Ask HN: Do you think this is the start of the new financial crisis?

#136

Post by jeezfrk »

shagymoe wrote: post #131
nwah1 wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bitcoin regularly dives by orders of magnitude worse than the 2008 financial crisis. Angsty posting like this probably sounded really cool to people in high school, but I'm not sure why we should be impressed with your fact-free faux-radical grifterism.

The value of Bitcoin would not fluctuate wildly if it were the default currency. You're not even attempting to argue in good faith or imagine how things could be different. What you call "angsty" is what I call "rational". I see you're happy to continue experiencing these crises which are, in fact, happening. Also, I don't think you know what grifterism means, if that's even a word.

magical thinking about very un-tethered and highly manipulated currency is not a help.

imagining it will change for an entire economy ... is quite irrational.

no magic will make a constantly shifting ice floe into boring bedrock.

Re: Ask HN: Do you think this is the start of the new financial crisis?

#137

Post by nwah1 »

throwayyy479087 wrote: post #126
meghan_rain wrote: post #123

Note that this thread will have the same Danning-Kruger level of plausible but wrong info as would a banker forum discussing "do you think ChatGPT will be able to drive cars?".

This is very accurate- I’m seeing a ton of very confident, completely wrong answers. Finance Twitter is likely a better source.

There's a difference between finance and economics. Economists would be the experts at the macro level. Of course, experts aren't so great at analyzing a system as complex as the economy. But at least that is what they are attempting to analyze, unlike other fields.

Re: Ask HN: Do you think this is the start of the new financial crisis?

#138

Post by shagymoe »

jeezfrk wrote: post #136
shagymoe wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The value of Bitcoin would not fluctuate wildly if it were the default currency. You're not even attempting to argue in good faith or imagine how things could be different. What you call "angsty" is what I call "rational". I see you're happy to continue experiencing these crises which are, in fact, happening. Also, I don't think you know what grifterism means, if that's even a word.

magical thinking about very un-tethered and highly manipulated currency is not a help. imagining it will change for an entire economy ... is quite irrational. no magic will make a constantly shifting ice floe into boring bedrock.

The current system is more irrational, unless you're benefiting from the corrupt system. Bitcoin is democratic and you vote with a node.

Re: Ask HN: Do you think this is the start of the new financial crisis?

#139

Post by seizethegdgap »

prepend wrote: post #105
abeppu wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is it a gigantic housing bubble? Prices clearly peaked, and the YoY price increase in some places had gotten a bit silly. But don't a lot of cities still just have a lot less housing than they should because of decades of not building enough? And even the decline in prices is mostly about the higher mortgage rates?

Everyone refinanced to very low interest rates. If home prices drop and people default then that’s lots of exposure to potential negative equity in all those home loans. I think the bubble is due to extremely high home prices. In my metro area, prices are up 70% since 2020. So a drop of 40% to correct to 2020 levels isn’t unheard of. Personally, I think the price is structural adjustments as people shift to remote wo…

I started to reply "How many of these loans are sub-prime ARMs though?" and then went and looked for the data myself. I can't tell if these ARMs are risky, but we're seeing an early-2000's-level number of people applying for them.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/11/adjustable-rate-mortgage-dem...

> “More borrowers continue to utilize ARMs to combat higher rates. The share of ARMs increased to 11% of overall loans and to 19% by dollar volume.” At the start of this year, when rates were still hovering near record lows, the ARM share was just 3% of all purchase applications. At 11% that is the highest share since March 2008.

https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2022/07/...

> The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 9.5 percent of total applications.

https://newslink.mba.org/mba-newslinks/2022/november/mba-new...

> The ARM share of activity increased to 12.0 percent of total applications.

Now, my wife and I bought our current house on a 5/1 ARM that was capped at +-1%/year and I think 10% total. We then refi'd in April 2020 and got on a 30 year fixed. I'm not sure if new rules after 2008 require ARMs to have total/yearly caps or not, if they do then a bubble pop will likely hurt a lot less. If they don't, then we're likely 4-5 years out from another crash.

Re: Ask HN: Do you think this is the start of the new financial crisis?

#140

Post by philipwhiuk »

latchkey wrote: post #135
shagymoe wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The value of Bitcoin would not fluctuate wildly if it were the default currency. You're not even attempting to argue in good faith or imagine how things could be different. What you call "angsty" is what I call "rational". I see you're happy to continue experiencing these crises which are, in fact, happening. Also, I don't think you know what grifterism means, if that's even a word.

HN can't think past price goes up/down and see that a lot of crypto is a valuable resource that you can use as collateral and borrow against it without having to go to a bank and beg for permission.

You still need permission from the person/company on the other side to use crypto as collateral.
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