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Ask HN: How can I learn macroeconomics properly?

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Re: Ask HN: How can I learn macroeconomics properly?

#131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But taking "economics" in isolation like this ignores much of what actually happens in reality (the politics part). It's a large part of why economics as a field is made fun of when its models are too simplistic to accurately describe reality.

You're just piling one non-sequitur on top of another. The question on this thread is "How can I learn macroeconomics properly?" The comment to which I replied was an uninformed diatribe that doesn't even come close to answering the question. Now you're doubling down on it. When someone is asking how to learn economics, it would be helpful to take it more "in isolation" instead of regurgitating the same complaints th…

You can learn economics to learn economics, sure that's not in dispute.

But the OP's original premise was to learn economics _to become a better investor_.

If both our comments are non-sequitor to you, consider it's you who lost the plot.

Re: Ask HN: How can I learn macroeconomics properly?

#133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're just piling one non-sequitur on top of another. The question on this thread is "How can I learn macroeconomics properly?" The comment to which I replied was an uninformed diatribe that doesn't even come close to answering the question. Now you're doubling down on it. When someone is asking how to learn economics, it would be helpful to take it more "in isolation" instead of regurgitating the same complaints th…

You can learn economics to learn economics, sure that's not in dispute. But the OP's original premise was to learn economics _to become a better investor_. If both our comments are non-sequitor to you, consider it's you who lost the plot.

Other people have effectively addressed the disconnect between learning econ and investing; the comment to which I replied did not at all. So no, I did not lose the plot.

Re: Ask HN: How can I learn macroeconomics properly?

#134

Economics is an arena full of entrenched interests who exploit information asymmetry and regulatory capture to compete, at multiple scale factors. It is my strongly held opinion that rational analysis of "Economics" is not possible. You've got the global scale, where nations compete, best described by Beau of the Fifth Column as a game of poker where everyone cheats to gain power. You've got the corporate scale, wher…

Most of what you've described here is about politics and finance, not economics. Econ has pretty much nothing to do with sitting on a board or high-frequency trading. HN is full of users who don't know what econ is but want to explain how wrong it is to one another. It's like a parody of itself.

Economics is based on the theory of a free and open markets.

When I took Econ 101, they had a stock market simulator for us to try out. I colluded with a classmate to game the market, and we won. The only surprising part was that our fellow classmates didn't consider the triviality of it's pricing model, which was strictly based on the last transaction prices.

The Professor was convinced we hacked the computers, to cheat, which we didn't. We just used the rules as presented, picked a portfolio of stocks to sell at the minimum price to each other... then when the price dropped, our fellow students sold ... and we bought, slowly selling off our other stocks, until we had all those shares. Then we sold each other those stocks at the maximum price.

The only effective difference between that simulation and the real world is the 1-10% of the profits that we'd have to pay for "the biggest fine in history". The regulators have been captured.

Re: Ask HN: How can I learn macroeconomics properly?

#135

I'm a professional investor (more than a decade of experience at hedge funds, particularly in global macro and quant, managing my own and other people's money). Your central premise is flawed -- in particular > Last 3 years has shown that to be a good investor you need to know macroeconomics This is not true. It is true that 'macro' events (central bank actions, supply/demand shocks, wars, pandemics) affect prices, b…

I’m an economics professor (not in macro, but I’ve taken more macro and at a higher level than you have). I think this comment is right on the money. None of what I learned in graduate school would help you forecast the price of a specific asset. Some of the large investment firms do employ economics PhDs to help them make forecasts of particular broad macro variables (inflation, unemployment, etc.). I don’t know of…

>don’t know of anyone who uses their macro background to forecast specific asset prices (e.g., Amazon’s share price).

I can agree with that,

OTOH someone with uncanny ability to predict asset prices might be expected to do exceptionally well in macroeconomics, perhaps without any formal background at all.

A good deal of math would always be helpful and I like a mixture of business math and non-business math operating in the background.

Re: Ask HN: How can I learn macroeconomics properly?

#136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

in other words dca is the most effective strategy for your average investor?

No. Since the stock market goes up on average over time, it's always correct by expected value to invest sooner, rather than holding money back to DCA in installments. Intentionally doing DCA if you have a sum that you could invest sooner is trying to time the market. DCA is a useful side effect when you're investing regularly, but on average it does not beat investing sooner.

On average, sure, but what if you're worried about outcomes approaching the worst case (say 10th percentile)?

Re: Ask HN: How can I learn macroeconomics properly?

#137

I'm a professional investor (more than a decade of experience at hedge funds, particularly in global macro and quant, managing my own and other people's money). Your central premise is flawed -- in particular > Last 3 years has shown that to be a good investor you need to know macroeconomics This is not true. It is true that 'macro' events (central bank actions, supply/demand shocks, wars, pandemics) affect prices, b…

Austrian economics is what you want to learn and understand.

Re: Ask HN: How can I learn macroeconomics properly?

#138

I'm a professional investor (more than a decade of experience at hedge funds, particularly in global macro and quant, managing my own and other people's money). Your central premise is flawed -- in particular > Last 3 years has shown that to be a good investor you need to know macroeconomics This is not true. It is true that 'macro' events (central bank actions, supply/demand shocks, wars, pandemics) affect prices, b…

I’m an economics professor (not in macro, but I’ve taken more macro and at a higher level than you have). I think this comment is right on the money. None of what I learned in graduate school would help you forecast the price of a specific asset. Some of the large investment firms do employ economics PhDs to help them make forecasts of particular broad macro variables (inflation, unemployment, etc.). I don’t know of…

My bachelor's agrees on this. Macro is a set of theories that can explain a certain set of economic norms, but in most circumstances these theories don't have anything like the predictive power of scientific theories backed by experiment.

However, my retail investing experience suggests that what macro is good for is spotting cracks in the framework with respect to specific countries and industries. Cracks aren't prices - when a market is way out of equilibrium, prices can go along saying one thing for quite some time while the real economy does something else. But it can produce broad strokes answers of "don't touch this asset" vs "only temporary setbacks here".

Re: Ask HN: How can I learn macroeconomics properly?

#139
I don't really know anything but I like investing and tracked this for a few years. Here's a best shot explanation from someone that's also not an economist.

For the current 2022 problems let's zoom in on what happened over the last three years. In 2020 there was a collapse in the US economy from covid. The fed jumped in and saved the day by expanding their balance sheet and dumping billions per day into the American economy.

With QE the fed sets the federal interest rate to 0% and increases the money circulating in the economy. The fed buys up long-term securities from banks with zero interest and pays those banks tasty capital in exchange. Most of that new money gets lent out from the bank to consumers and businesses but ~10% is retained for capital reserves (in case the loan goes bad).

A side effect of QE is that it can heat up the economy a little too much which causes inflation. The reason behind inflation is that more money is being created so the value of the currency weakens. In theory the fed would time the QE just right so it could help correct a market crash but end it before inflation gets too bad.

When things got hot in 2020, they got super hot! There was the covid stimulus and a bunch of complex things that caused that. The fed kept QE in place to help boost business and lower unemployment. They had certain goals in mind for what "good enough" looked like and wanted to keep QE until we got there.

Another potential danger of QE is that it can create "easy money" for businesses since consumers are spending more and commercial loans are cheaper. In a perfect world businesses would use this increased revenue to improve their business fundamentals, like investing into R&D, improving employee wages, creating new products, etc. In reality, a lot of companies used the revenue for stock buybacks instead.

When a stock buyback happens it decreases the number of available shares and gives a payout to shareholders. The payout from the buyback usually comes in the form of an increase to the stock price or dividend. That's a sweet deal for anyone that happens to own the stock already. The decision for that comes from people at the top of the company who usually happen to own an outsized number of shares. Wahoo, party! When that stock buyback happens in a market that's already hot, stocks are more likely to become overvalued.

Another factor in stock destabilization was the speculation that took over during the strong market. Bull markets usually favor growth stocks because they can deliver higher returns than core and value stocks. Growth companies remove extra expenses like dividends to focus on reinvestment so they can keep growing. When things are going well their stock price can shoot up like a rocket.

That hotness tends to attract speculators that want to make money fast. They often buy shares of the stock without trying to understand what the intrinsic value might be. This can introduce volatility into the stock price as people buy and sell high amounts based on minor events or company rumors. Over time the speculation can cause a stock's price to diverge strongly from its intrinsic value. For example, when a certain car rental company triples in value in a single day because they came into contact with a popular electric car maker. Crazy sauce.

My best guess for why the market turned at the start of this year is that firms were moving back to more realistic valuations with the federal interest rate going back up in March. That interest rate hike causes the economy to cool down. With the speculation being high some firms may have been playing it safe. The US equities were highly overvalued though.[0]

This isn't guaranteed to be totally spot on but it's probably kind of close for the major issues.

The classic books by Benjamin Graham are a solid place to start for learning about stock investments. Bonds, commodities, derivatives, etc. are all different beasts that have their own complexities. Just learning about stocks and bonds might be a better foundation. If you really want to learn more after that then go wild.

A more advanced technique for analyzing stocks would be fundamental analysis which requires knowledge of corporate finance and accounting. At that point you might as well just become an analyst at a financial firm though...

btw this PBS Frontline documentary is pretty cool for explaining some of the recent QE problems https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/film/the-power-of-the-fed...

[0] Search for "(cape)" in this 2022 Vanguard outlook. They weren't alone in this overvaluation conclusion. https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/dam/corp/research/pdf...

Re: Ask HN: How can I learn macroeconomics properly?

#140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm curious why you became a "professional investor" instead of following your own advice. > Are you better than them? Are you?

> Are you? I think he's saying that no-one person can be better. Stock market crashed on 9-11. So what happened the next time the world had such a huge hit (Covid)? the markets rose because everyone was piling to get that same post-911 dip. It didn't exist because everyone that was expecting it caused the same to not happen. So I guess if you think you know what's going to happen next. You're probably 1 of a million…

> the markets rose because everyone was piling to get that same post-911 dip

What? The market (SPX) dipped 35% within a couple weeks in March 2020. Yes, it rose afterwards, because the FED opened the floodgates, but there was a very significant dip first.

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